Typhoon Tip Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Tentatively thinking there's something around the 20th still...but it may be more overrunning or 'swfe' ...etc. in nature. Not sure about the 24th? I'm starting to see what Scott was fearing yesterday materializing in the telecon projections (numerical) ... in short, once post the 20th the EPO and PNA are neutralized down to almost no skill. Thing is...that could get uglier for winter enthusiasts when least excuse imagined, year to year now... CC apparently crashes the late February party ... Without a steady state cold influx at hemispheric scales, "warming" is being proven time and time over recent years to be a predisposition... So, any such relaxation of the pattern ...heh, a warm flash/bounce potential is implied. Sort of disproportionately more so than people may think. Despite even those who are willing to embrace the truth about the future state of this thing ... even amongst us we act surprised sometimes - But we'll see. These extended telecons are also more variable/'mop ended' ...so it's just an early recognition for now. That would be post the 25th which crowds the 24th a bit. just sayn' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Big balls of sleet coming down. Had some here this morning.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Big balls coming down and slapping my cheeks. Right now or later? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 SOI -46 Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: Tentatively thinking there's something around the 20th still...but it may be more overrunning or 'swfe' ...etc. in nature. Not sure about the 24th? I'm starting to see what Scott was fearing yesterday materializing in the telecon projections (numerical) ... in short, once post the 20th the EPO and PNA are neutralized down to almost no skill. Thing is...that could get uglier for winter enthusiasts when least excuse imagined, year to year now... CC apparently crashes the late February party ... Without a steady state cold influx at hemispheric scales, "warming" is being proven time and time over recent years to be a predisposition... So, any such relaxation of the pattern ...heh, a warm flash/bounce potential is implied. Sort of disproportionately more so than people may think. Despite even those who are willing to embrace the truth about the future state of this thing ... even amongst us we act surprised sometimes - But we'll see. These extended telecons are also more variable/'mop ended' ...so it's just an early recognition for now. That would be post the 25th which crowds the 24th a bit. just sayn' I haven't waivered on my long run stance....the MJO is going to flat line and ultimately emerge from the COD into the MC IMHO....so we have to make hay Tuesday through last week of Feb. That is our window. I do not buy this 6 week orgie that some have been floating around. DT is just recently coming around to this.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Give me a 10-spot on Tuesday and 20" on PD...then scrounge up another few inches at some point to call it a climo winter. Done...over and out- 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted February 9 Author Share Posted February 9 Give me a 10-spot on Tuesday and 20" on PD...then scrounge up another few inches at some point to call it a climo winter. Done...over and out-Considering I recently moved, what exactly is PD so I know for future reference?Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Big balls of sleet coming down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 2 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said: Considering I recently moved, what exactly is PD so I know for future reference? Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk President's Day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 2 minutes ago, mreaves said: President's Day To be more specific, there are two famous Presidents’ Day storms…that’s why people see “PDI and PDII”….the first one was 1979 and crushed DC to NYC but whiffed New England. The second one was 2003 and gave 20”+ from DC to Boston and most SNE. Even CNE got decent snows but not quite as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I haven't waivered on my long run stance....the MJO is going to flat line and ultimately emerge from the COD into the MC IMHO....so we have to make hay Tuesday through last week of Feb. That uis our window. I do not buy this 6 week orgie that some have been floating around. DT is just recently coming around to this.... It’s a another week of Winter before its over and I’m not convinced at all that everyone will score. Same areas that did well in Jan look to repeat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 minute ago, qg_omega said: It’s an another week of Winter before it’s over and I’m not convinced at all that everyone will score. Same areas that did well in Jan look to repeat Got It. Winter gone in a week. Feb 17? Or a week after VD? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I haven't waivered on my long run stance....the MJO is going to flat line and ultimately emerge from the COD into the MC IMHO....so we have to make hay Tuesday through last week of Feb. That uis our window. I do not buy this 6 week orgie that some have been floating around. DT is just recently coming around to this.... yeah... where as I don't hold onto previous ideas - I'm very mutable in short order if the typical trustier indicators go into a d(x) ... I can change my opinion pretty fast. Especially post the solar min, when that's happening during a climate era where warm "impulse" behavior is very real in the atmosphere. ... anyway... you get it -... Hey Will, ...check out the "little critter" on the 12z ICON. Reminds me a little of Feb 2002 only not as cold maybe... There's actually two - the one way out there has very little predictive value ( of course ..>) but that looks like it's en route to being a NJ modeler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 5 minutes ago, qg_omega said: It’s a another week of Winter before its over and I’m not convinced at all that everyone will score. Same areas that did well in Jan look to repeat I think its more than a week....I think John's date of the 24th is the earliest when can entertain the beginning of the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Feb 9, 2013 . My parents house in Hingham absolutely smoked. Days of old... 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Feb 16th looks interesting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 11 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: Feb 16th looks interesting? If we had anything into the s stream to phase with....as is it looks like a clipper. Tuesday's deal slowing down would help, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: If we had anything into the s stream to phase with....as is it looks like a clipper. Yeah the GFS had some redeveloper/Miller B vibes at 12z. At the least, we have some threats starting to show on models 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 If we had a big NAO block in place, then the 16th could be very formiddable. Shit like this is why the NAO is important....its not the governing force that some make it out to be, but its something you def want on your side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 16th has clipper/little critter potential that @Typhoon Tip and I have been referring to the last day or so. Pretty vigorous northern stream s/w…if we can track that in the vicinity of LI then look out for a solid stripe of snow over SNE/CNE. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Meanwhile in the Adirondacks... This guy is an avid snowmobiler and lives on the eastern edge of Tug Hill in the Adirondacks. He lives and breaths riding, and normally puts out in-depth trail reports. Quote Friday, February 9th I haven't been posting much and I really don't think I have to spell out why. The truth is I haven't been riding enough to give you a fair and first-hand trail report, not because I don't want to, but because it just hasn't looked like much fun. I've seen some bad winters and this one has been by far the worst. Doesn't matter what forecast you look at, 7-day, 10-day, 14-day, WeatherUnderground, TWC, FoxWeather, iPhone weather app - there is no snow in the forecast that will turn this around for the masses before the President's Week. Yesterday it was 48 degrees and sunny, today the low is 38F and the high 46F, tomorrow there's rain in the forecast with a high of 44F, we don't see freezing temps until Sunday and then it looks like it will stay cold through the next weekend, but no snow. There's hardly any frost in the ground and after this weekend I honestly believe any exposed ground will be thawed to the point even a dump of 6 inches wouldn't help. I wish I could paint a better picture. This season is pretty much done - there I said it. (I pray I'm wrong) Mailing it in on Feb 9th. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Actually a little more than a mere critter on this run - implied southern/SE NH 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Actually a little more than a mere critter on this run - implied southern/SE NH I hope it bites me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Layman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Has anyone seen the sun yet today? I thought we were heading for high 40's at some point. The sun shone for a few minutes this morning before the front came through, clouded everything up and here we sit - overcast and 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I hope it bites me. Ha! word but you know... I was thinkin' might be the first time we've successfully witnessed "snow on snow" take place since several seasons? I mean if that continues to evolve. It seems we always interlude a melt back or some sort of pack correction warming between events since really 2015... I might not be right about that but it feels that way, anywho 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 19 minutes ago, Layman said: Has anyone seen the sun yet today? I thought we were heading for high 40's at some point. The sun shone for a few minutes this morning before the front came through, clouded everything up and here we sit - overcast and 36. Clearing pretty quick now from west to east. Plenty of sun here on the otherside of Rockingham Co now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 hour ago, amarshall said: Feb 9, 2013 . My parents house in Hingham absolutely smoked. Days of old.. . Yore Jan 24th 2015 Feb 9th 2015 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Ain't gonna lie, totally spoiled by today's weather but let the games begin. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: To be more specific, there are two famous Presidents’ Day storms…that’s why people see “PDI and PDII”….the first one was 1979 and crushed DC to NYC but whiffed New England. The second one was 2003 and gave 20”+ from DC to Boston and most SNE. Even CNE got decent snows but not quite as much. We watched both from afar. In Fort Kent we'd just come out of 8 straight days with subzero highs. In our present locale, 2/16/03 hit -29, our coldest February temp here. 3rd time's the charm? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 4 hours ago, Layman said: Has anyone seen the sun yet today? I thought we were heading for high 40's at some point. The sun shone for a few minutes this morning before the front came through, clouded everything up and here we sit - overcast and 36. Sunny all day down here, hit 48 for a high, my car felt like a greenhouse, didn't need the heat on at all, must have hit Tippys sun angle day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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