Typhoon Tip Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 14 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: You will be wishing for spring next week. I know - did you see the 12z Euro ? gelid hell. It creates a standing R- wave that happens to place a continental cold conveyor axis right through New England ... sub 520 dm non hydrostatic hgts in a laminar sort of 40 mph wind 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 The cold should be expected, though. There's a very strong -EPO signal from every telecon source that's been in the projections for over a week, positioned between ~ the 13th and the 20th... 7 days of cold loading into the Canadian shield still on the polar side of the Equinox probably not a warm look along the NP-GL-NE garland. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 EPS also ejects an amplifying wave for the 23rd. wild how clearly this shows up along with the PNA spike and decaying block. very favorable hemispheric look 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 14 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: EPS also ejects an amplifying wave for the 23rd. wild how clearly this shows up along with the PNA spike and decaying block. very favorable hemispheric look agreed ... the 20th may be the next in the hemispheric cycle - I realize that's the 23rd but I suspect it's all within shuffling range, either way 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 If I were to be picky, I'd like to see less troughing over the Bering Sea, and more of an Aleutian low develop. Verbatim the look is fine thanks to decaying blocking and still some ridging out west, but that Bering Sea trough and strong PAC jet just south of it have me question how long this lasts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Fortunately the block north of AK and the decaying -NAO certainly are not conducive for torching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: If I were to be picky, I'd like to see less troughing over the Bering Sea, and more of an Aleutian low develop. Verbatim the look is fine thanks to decaying blocking and still some ridging out west, but that Bering Sea trough and strong PAC jet just south of it have me question how long this lasts. i think you're getting there, the trough is retrograding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Okay, ... a gift for Scott, Ray and Kevin Today marks the first day removed having exited the perennial solar minimum, after spending 91.25 days since Nov 8, in the cave of winter This is now the solar transition where moving forward the +delta in daily irradiance begins the equinox acceleration. yay! 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Okay, ... a gift for Scott, Ray and Kevin Today marks the first day removed having exited the perennial solar minimum, after spending 91.25 days since Nov 8, in the cave of winter This is now the solar transition where moving forward the +delta in daily irradiance begins the equinox acceleration. yay! The warming of a gelid nape is quite a thing! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 31 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Okay, ... a gift for Scott, Ray and Kevin Today marks the first day removed having exited the perennial solar minimum, after spending 91.25 days since Nov 8, in the cave of winter This is now the solar transition where moving forward the +delta in daily irradiance begins the equinox acceleration. yay! My crack is already emitting radiance upon exiting the autimobile... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 46 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: My crack is already emitting radiance upon exiting the autimobile... Yeah, I felt prison naped by the sun today. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 GFs making winter great again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: GFs making winter great again That clipper shortwave at the end of next week is pretty interesting too. It’s been on almost all guidance but some of the models suppress it but GFS has been more bullish for us. I’d love a nice old school clipper that gives us a solid 3-6 on top of existing pack. We finally have a western ridge with an active northern stream…something we’ve lacked much of the last few winters…and that type of pattern is good for clippers. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AstronomyEnjoyer Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Gorgeous day today - not sure it made it past 45 but it felt like 50's outside today - full sun as well. First time the snowpack felt vulnerable, had water streaming off the roof at one point from melting, and I finally have one spot where yard is showing - over the septic tank (gross). A real weenie would take the tractor and use the loader to dump spare snow over the bare spot, but this weenie doesn't want to (literally, because I do this figuratively all the time) collapse into a pit of his own shit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That clipper shortwave at the end of next week is pretty interesting too. It’s been on almost all guidance but some of the models suppress it but GFS has been more bullish for us. I’d love a nice old school clipper that gives us a solid 3-6 on top of existing pack. We finally have a western ridge with an active northern stream…something we’ve lacked much of the last few winters…and that type of pattern is good for clippers. I mean the mid level jet mechanics are approaching upper bound material with wind exceeding 130 kts at 500 in a jet tube that spans WI to S of LI. wtf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: I mean the mid level jet mechanics are approaching upper bound material with wind exceeding 130 kts at 500 in a jet tube that spans WI to S of LI. wtf Yeah that’s close to a Lance Bosart “little critter” setup. Rip a high-end jet streak on a clipper just south of LI….positive bust template. Hopefully it’s trackable next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yeah that’s close to a Lance Bosart “little critter” setup. Rip a high-end jet streak on a clipper just south of LI….positive bust template. Hopefully it’s trackable next week. get the amplitude a little higher and you have a sneaky nuke. some of the other GFS runs had quick hitting 3-6/4-8" type events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 22 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I mean the mid level jet mechanics are approaching upper bound material with wind exceeding 130 kts at 500 in a jet tube that spans WI to S of LI. wtf Subsu me baby til the juice runs down my leg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 GEFS likes PD week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: GEFS likes PD week Yup 20th 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 extremely potent signal on the EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: extremely potent signal on the EPS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: extremely potent signal on the EPS I’m addition to the strong 2/24 signal, we’re starting to see a cluster of lows show up near the BM and further southwest (timing variance) on the individual ensemble plot for 2/19ish. Pretty good to start seeing some clusters at D10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Congrats Dendrite wind chills 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 46 minutes ago, qg_omega said: You loves those 300 hr op runs especially when they’re warm. Maybe this is one step in the middle of a pattern progression but do you think this is really how it’s going to play out on a larger scale? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 We snow we will shovel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 hour ago, qg_omega said: lol this is a sad trolling attempt, even for you. jeez man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 24 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: You loves those 300 hr op runs especially when they’re warm. Maybe this is one step in the middle of a pattern progression but do you think this is really how it’s going to play out on a larger scale? its not like we haven't seen the SE ridge like up into the NAO region with a trough out west, o wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Just now, qg_omega said: its not like we haven't seen the SE ridge like up into the NAO region with a trough out west, o wait. So, just to be clear, you think that’s what’s more likely to happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Big balls of sleet coming down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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