RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: i don’t think anyone is arguing that, but there’s no reason why that pattern wouldn’t occur. can you come up with an actual reason on modeling right now for that to go up in flames? an actual reason, not just “if everything single thing possible goes wrong, the rest of the winter will suck.” that doesn’t count GFS has an interesting D10+ look across the conus. Looks like early spring with the wavelengths and blockiness. You’ve been hammering the mid Feb take lately but we could sneak in something before then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Weather map on acid? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 What can we do to expunge that stupid cow's udder over Manitoba? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 19 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: GFS has an interesting D10+ look across the conus. Looks like early spring with the wavelengths and blockiness. You’ve been hammering the mid Feb take lately but we could sneak in something before then. if that Canadian block is far enough north to let something underneath, yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 4 hours ago, Torch Tiger said: The same logic can be applied to the N stream, no? I haven't looked at any verification %s recently but I'm fairly confident the gfs has improved slightly with that "bully". I'm sure someone knows offhand and can correct me. NOT saying it (or other models, but it's been gfs bane) doesn't continue to do that or anything. I agree that its improved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 3 hours ago, snowman19 said: If you live anywhere south of New England, you better pray that the weeklies are right about 2/15 and beyond because that’s put up or shut up time, last shot. You can’t kick the can anymore at that point. Too little, too late. If it fails, good luck punting mid-late February and hoping some storybook miracle happens in March, game over time then Have I told you lately that I love you? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 33 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: if that Canadian block is far enough north to let something underneath, yes Not saying we’ll score an event but my scrotum tells me the canadian heights will be weaker and thus north of modeling. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 3 hours ago, Brian5671 said: We've been kicking the can the whole winter-first it was big pattern change late Dec-that got moved to mid Jan, 8 days of cold and a couple minor/moderate events then right back to the torch now we waiting for something mid Feb....classic ratter type winter where it's always 10+ days away....and meanwhile the warmth is through the roof--torch December and even Jan will finish above normal.... I would argue that the can got kicked in latter December, which was a month we were all prepared for to suck...but it didn't really get kicked in January.....you just didn't end up liking what was in it. The pattern verified.....sorry there was no blizzard on your porch. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: i don’t think anyone is arguing that, but there’s no reason why that pattern wouldn’t occur. can you come up with an actual reason on modeling right now for that to go up in flames? an actual reason, not just “if everything single thing possible goes wrong, the rest of the winter will suck.” that doesn’t count I like snowman, but he is one those passive aggressive trolls....its camouflaged, but note the tone of all of his posts...."You had better pray (insert fortuitous development for winter enthusiasts) occurs or you won't have any winter at all"! When do you ever see him say "If that happens, it could be a fun wintry stretch".....he's a little verbiage Jedi always trying to elicit emotion from fans of winter and when he does, he plays the victim. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 2 hours ago, Allsnow said: Eps doesn’t agree with the op for that type of cold Would you expect it to at that lead? An ensemble mean is hard pressed to exhibit large anomalies at extended leads. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: GFS has an interesting D10+ look across the conus. Looks like early spring with the wavelengths and blockiness. You’ve been hammering the mid Feb take lately but we could sneak in something before then. A lot of guidance is trending that way. It’s pretty interesting because you don’t normally see that type of pattern in early February. Like you said, usually March or April….but in early February, there’s enough cold around that you could really score big from one of those bowlers. Who knows, maybe something breaks our way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I like snowman, but he is one those passive aggressive trolls....its camouflaged, but note the tone of all of his posts...."You had better pray (insert fortuitous development for winter enthusiasts) occurs or you won't have any winter at all"! When do you ever see him say "If that happens, it could be a fun wintry stretch".....he's a little verbiage Jedi always trying to elicit emotion from fans of winter and when he does, he plays the victim. Good transactional analysis work my friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Yeah 570dm over Hudson Bay at the beginning of Feb is kinda wild…especially with the euro dropping a piece of the PV over our heads and rotting it there for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 3 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: i don’t think anyone is arguing that, but there’s no reason why that pattern wouldn’t occur. can you come up with an actual reason on modeling right now for that to go up in flames? an actual reason, not just “if everything single thing possible goes wrong, the rest of the winter will suck.” that doesn’t count I agree that the long range looks better on recent runs and that we will see a colder stretch. However, I don’t like how far south the blocking is on some of these runs. Especially given strong nino climo, I’m concerned about suppression (Feb 2010 style). While yes, the pattern on the models is supported by Feb strong nino climo, that pattern isn’t necessarily good for SNE. It’s a great pattern for the mid Atlantic, ok one for SNE north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I would argue that the can got kicked in latter December, which was a month we were all prepared for to suck...but it didn't really get kicked in January.....you just didn't end up liking what was in it. The pattern verified.....sorry there was no blizzard on your porch. The pattern absolutely verified. It was deep winter for a few weeks, with record breaking cold in the middle of the country. After a parade of snow systems and bitter cold here, London weather has commenced for the thaw. Can kicking has become an overused term. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said: I'm not familiar with how a strong nina would affect the East. But I know here in the lakes there's actually a decent chance of having a very stormy winter. Big on roller coaster patterns. For New England, strong Nina isn’t bad. It’s not our most favorable Enso state (weak Nino and weak Ninas are better), but it’s more favorable than strong or super ninos here. 2010-2011 was one of the snowiest winters on record in the Boston area, and it was during a strong Nina. The last strong Nina we had before that (2007-2008) wasn’t quite as good, but it was still a pretty good winter. Farther north that was an extremely good winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 hour ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Weather map on acid? Gefs is starting to agree 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 29 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I like snowman, but he is one those passive aggressive trolls....its camouflaged, but note the tone of all of his posts...."You had better pray (insert fortuitous development for winter enthusiasts) occurs or you won't have any winter at all"! When do you ever see him say "If that happens, it could be a fun wintry stretch".....he's a little verbiage Jedi always trying to elicit emotion from fans of winter and when he does, he plays the victim. I agree with everything you said, except the like part in the beginning. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Just now, CPcantmeasuresnow said: I agree with everything you said, except the like part in the beginning. He knows his stuff and brings shit to the table, but he's just really biased and likes to poke the hornet's nest without anyone realizing he's poking it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Feels like signal that there’s going to be a very early spring… 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: Feels like signal that there’s going to be a very early spring… Damn, so we are basically going straight from fall to spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: A lot of guidance is trending that way. It’s pretty interesting because you don’t normally see that type of pattern in early February. Like you said, usually March or April….but in early February, there’s enough cold around that you could really score big from one of those bowlers. Who knows, maybe something breaks our way. Go big or bring on spring. It’s exhausting trying to pull a sloppy couple inches sandwiched in between rainers. Maybe this weird bowling look in peak climo can swing variance back our way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 3 hours ago, George001 said: I agree that the long range looks better on recent runs and that we will see a colder stretch. However, I don’t like how far south the blocking is on some of these runs. Especially given strong nino climo, I’m concerned about suppression (Feb 2010 style). While yes, the pattern on the models is supported by Feb strong nino climo, that pattern isn’t necessarily good for SNE. It’s a great pattern for the mid Atlantic, ok one for SNE north. yes, the advertised pattern plays better for like HFD south. once into mid-Feb, everyone can get in on the action… NYC and MA are favored, but 2003 and 1983 got into BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: yes, the advertised pattern plays better for like HFD south. once into mid-Feb, everyone can get in on the action… NYC and MA are favored, but 2003 and 1983 got into BOS Was the blocking more north based those years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: Feels like signal that there’s going to be a very early spring… Ha...Eric Webb said the exact opposite Thursday AM. I am in your camp....once the February reload expires in early March, then we rip the bandaid off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 The E MA melts would be interesting 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 40 minutes ago, dendrite said: The E MA melts would be interesting Nah big Feb coming. All going to plan. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Two weeks of zero on the Euro after the rain on Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 7 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Two weeks of zero on the Euro after the rain on Sunday First half of Feb doesn’t seem that wintry. Hopefully that changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: First half of Feb doesn’t seem that wintry. Hopefully that changes. Looks like after the 10th we build a west coast ridge into the -epo domain. That will probably be the next opportunity for the coast. Hopefully it doesn’t get can kicked as all the ensembles agree currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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