Typhoon Tip Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Yeah but we have to think of those differences from the perspective of deltas ( changes ) along processing.The N/stream may be attempting to initiate a phased solution - just that the mean at that time of the run is a snapshot en route to a destination. It's a possibility that cannot be rule out at this range/circumstances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Maybe this will happen next week? https://x.com/ryansnoddon/status/1754863934991929482?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg Let’s not get carried away just yet. Start at 3-4 feet and we can always adjust higher. 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Let’s not get carried away just yet. Start at 3-4 feet and we can always adjust higher. That is crazy...that is the Blizz of '78 for them. I am suprised occlusion didn't cap that a bit more...60"?? Wow....must have been some insane banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Maybe this will happen next week? https://x.com/ryansnoddon/status/1754863934991929482?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg Probably shave 58” off that and up the temps to 33F…and we have our “storm”. 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 As much as we lament GW, storms like that are going to become more of a possibility...gonna see some insane events, even as climo overall gets a bit more hostile. These past several years are worth that IMO...I'll trade some 6" deals to see that, as those are what I live for. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 And... with the +d(PNA) being in progress while this system ejects eastward across the continent, there some suggestion for correction vectoring there. Frankly, the operational runs have not been very representative up to this point. They're routinely on the feeble side of +PNA expression - comparing that which has been and remains an impressive teleconnection. I've been waiting for that the other shoe to fall on that - **however** it also occurs to me that the flow is attempting to split near the Aleutians; that changes the map a little. With the -EPO block getting going, it is instantiating a high polar delivery/jet moving NW-SE over western/central Canada, while the southern branch runs underneath and careens California with a River. None of this precludes our getting winter weather - in fact, ...there's more arguments in favor of that happening. The 850 mb anomaly distribution in a 'super ens mean' has negative spread from the NP-Lakes-NE from ~ 11th to the end of the run ... the canonical result down stream of said -EPO. That's a pretty definitive cold north, over warm south type of loading across 40 N and should be considered precarious and higher volatility. But as far as the 13th, it's sort of being stranded because that type of +PNA .. not really ideal for getting a large positive interference. Can't just apply a +PNA and assume in this sense... It can change though - so far it's been an idiosyncratically limiting. Beyond that though... we either waste said volatility, or new features emerge given time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That is crazy...that is the Blizz of '78 for them. I am suprised occlusion didn't cap that a bit more...60"?? Wow....must have been some insane banding. OH, it'll get "attributed" - that smacks as a PWAT anomaly relative to thermal profile thing, big time .. and the possibility of that happening without that "goosing" is probably a 1::500? Which would be fine, but that doesn't intuitively fit the odds when considering that we are getting these weird localized snow results ... and heat results, and wind results... rain to 'canes ... pick a metric, too frequently world over to fit under the 1 in a 500 probability curve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 I guess in simple terms, if it is happening like 1::30 ... all the time, world over, it is not happening 1::500 then, right? duh. Too much reliance on past climate. People seem to intellectualize the changing climate, but then fail to allow the climate to change. Who and how says " 1::500" - what's that based upon, the past climate? ( enter buzzer sound). it's fascinating ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah. Kind of feel like something is brewing. In your briefs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I guess in simple terms, if it is happening like 1::30 ... all the time, world over, it is not happening 1::500 then, right? duh. Too much reliance on past climate. People seems to intellectualize the changing climate, but then fail to allow the climate to change. Who and how says " 1::500" - what's that based upon, the past climate? ( enter buzzer sound). it's fascinating ... Yea, I was just initmating that.....no doubt in my mind that was some CC juice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Just now, Kitz Craver said: In your briefs? I have two winters worth in my briefs just running down my leg and leaving a trail. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Just now, CoastalWx said: I have two winters worth in my briefs just running down my leg and leaving a trail. Went through all the TP, tissue, paper towels, damn even torn up pieces of paper bag. Ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, I was just initmating that.....no doubt in my mind that was some CC juice. I saw - hahaha. I think you beat me to it because as usual I couldn't end a sentence in time. LOL same page ... Even if some of that is tinted humor, there's always some truth to what's funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 minute ago, Kitz Craver said: Went through all the TP, tissue, paper towels, damn even torn up pieces of paper bag. Ouch. TP, tissue, towels, kids clothes, curtains....all used up. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Just now, CoastalWx said: TP, tissue, towels, kids clothes, curtains....all used up. Lmfao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 What is Sydney NS climo? I'm sure they average more than Boston and are prone to larger storms, but that is still nuts. I'm just overwhelmed with emotion because on the one hand, I hate that city because I am jealous, and on the other hand it gives me weenie lust for what is possible in a warming climate. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 It’s a huge storm for them …God get over yourselves already. Shit happens. Doesn’t always have to be a CC reason. Total nonsense. 4 2 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: It’s a huge storm for them …God get over yourselves already. Shit happens. Doesn’t always have to be a CC reason. Total nonsense. Just stop...don't turn this into that. If you want to throw a tantrum about it, do it in another forum. The fact that you have trouble accepting this isn't my problem. 30", fine...60" dude? Enough with the delusion. 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 45 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: As much as we lament GW, storms like that are going to become more of a possibility...gonna see some insane events, even as climo overall gets a bit more hostile. These past several years are worth that IMO...I'll trade some 6" deals to see that, as those are what I live for. I have a funny feeling ...when all is said and done and this GW/CC "slow moving apocalypse" thing has finally gone on long enough to send our world into a Mad Maxian dystopia of scant populations of barbarianism ( "civility" only happens in the provisional reality -) ... the reality along the path to that destination will have managed to never place one of those "GW storms" 10 MI S of ACK Island. LOL 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Just stop...don't turn this into that. If you want to throw a tantrum about it, do it in another forum. The fact that you have trouble accepting this isn't my problem. 30", fine...60" dude? Enough with the delusion. Ya Ray, they never get huge storms there lol. It’s was huge for sure, and I wish it was us. But I’m Not buying that total BS. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: What is Sydney NS climo? I'm sure they average more than Boston and are prone to larger storms, but that is still nuts. I'm just overwhelmed with emotion because on the one hand, I hate that city because I am jealous, and on the other hand it gives me weenie lust for what is possible in a warming climate. I did a quick search the other day because I was curious. From what I found, around 110". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Ya Ray, they never get huge storms there lol. It’s was huge for sure, and I wish it was us. But I’m Not buying that total BS. 60" snow storm has absolutely zero to do with the fact that the world is comprsised of like 70% water and said water is warmer than it ever has been. The fact that warmth holds more water isn't debatable. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Just now, wx2fish said: I did a quick search the other day because I was curious. From what I found, around 110". Wow, they average that much? More than I had thought... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 60" snow storm has absolutely zero to do with the fact that the world is comprsised if like 70 water and said water is warmer than it ever has been. The fact that warmth holds more water isn't debatable. And it's more than just that too... lower static stability over warm(er) waters, potential for stronger baroclinicity along the coast sometimes with a higher base state in water temps. Lots of second order effects here. I think there's a pretty strong case for an increase in the severity of some winter storms in the NE US/Atl Canada among other things (decrease in snow depth days, etc). 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Wow, they average that much? More than I had thought... What would BOS average if it were hundreds of miles north? I’m not surprised at 110”. PWM gets >50% more than BOS and they’re only 140 miles up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 6 minutes ago, CT Rain said: And it's more than just that too... lower static stability over warm(er) waters, potential for stronger baroclinicity along the coast sometimes with a higher base state in water temps. Lots of second order effects here. I think there's a pretty strong case for an increase in the severity of some winter storms in the NE US/Atl Canada among other things (decrease in snow depth days, etc). Yea, I agree with Wolf that there is some overattribution, but I don't feel like this is an example of that...its a pretty egregious case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: And it's more than just that too... lower static stability over warm(er) waters, potential for stronger baroclinicity along the coast sometimes with a higher base state in water temps. Lots of second order effects here. I think there's a pretty strong case for an increase in the severity of some winter storms in the NE US/Atl Canada among other things (decrease in snow depth days, etc). Nah. Wolfie knows more than any met or scientist. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 4 minutes ago, wx2fish said: I did a quick search the other day because I was curious. From what I found, around 110". So they got around half their annual climo in 1 storm. That's not unusual in the Mid Atlantic and other locations in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 6 minutes ago, weathafella said: What would BOS average if it were hundreds of miles north? I’m not surprised at 110”. PWM gets >50% more than BOS and they’re only 100 miles up the coast. I'm not arguing the point....I guess I just expected less since they are right on the ocean. Again, just my visceral reacton...not debating anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: So they got around half their annual climo in 1 storm. That's not unusual in the Mid Atlantic and other locations in the east. Well, its much easier that far to the south because they average so little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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