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It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread


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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Looks like suppression during its peak before the small window for a big event opens up. 

Suppression is mediated by more than just the arctic oscillation. Like the position of the PNA ridge. Or if there’s an active southern stream and split flow. And the positioning of high-pressure around Greenland.

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29 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

Looking forward to it driving that bad boy up the great lakes at 00z.

Three statisticians go duck hunting.

The first one shoots one aims and fires a foot too high.

The second one aims and fires a foot too low.

The third one yells "we got him!"

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Pretty deep winter look across the crest of Berkshires still.  I’ll snap a picture tomorrow.  Such a huge difference from the valley up to over 1500’. I’m not saying it’s been a good winter by any stretch, we’re way behind in seasonal snowfall.  

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Continuity is very poor ... this GFS run bears only semblance to prior solutons.  It's back to somewhat more convincing +PNA, but also is stretching the field in the W-E coordinate. 

That situation with that thing on the 13th ( relative to this run...) nary misses probably an otherwise massive event.   N/Stream tries to subsume, but the S/Stream is outpacing due to that W--> E bias above.... 

Watching future guidance.  

The teleconnectors continue to flag impressive +PNA modality ...despite these distracting spatial layouts that try to go against.

By the way, I realize some of you don't have faith in this system, but as far as I can tell, this is your index driven event.  It's poorly handled up to this point, which likely wouldn't help its case.  And, it is possible a middling system results...all that, but this particular system - I would guess - has the greatest up-side than any this year to date.  So we'll see what the future guidance does. 

I will say though that the longevity of the +PNA comes into question, regardless. 

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Pretty solid move in the GEFs, as well... 

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_32.png

Notice the deep solutions are within the spread cluster over the NW arc... That's prooobaby an suggestion that there are more proficiently phased solutions; an N/stream grab favors that region of the cyclone envelope.

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5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This year just like last despite it not feeling that way due to radiational cold in Nov?

Hey, if we end up at the end of March, with what we/I had last year, I’ll gladly concede that it felt different, but it ended up the same.  No worries, and no problem admitting so.  But it ain’t close to over yet.

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7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This year just like last despite it not feeling that way due to radiational cold in Nov?

Although around this time last year we had our lowest temps of the season (-10F for me); I could be wrong but I think our coldest stretch will be the 7 BN days we had in January 

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That was a great system that came way west in the final 48-60 hours. It was almost a whiff at like 84 hours iirc. 

Let’s hope we can say in about 6 weeks or so, that we’ve picked up a few decent snow events to salvage what is a currently horrible season for a good chunk of us. 

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4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Let’s hope we can say in about 6 weeks or so, that we’ve picked up a few decent snow events to salvage what is a currently horrible season for a good chunk of us. 

I’d be happy with one major (double digits) and one moderate warning event from here on out. I’m hoping for more than that, but realistically we have about 4-5 weeks left starting next week when things become favorable again. 
 

Sometimes you can get on a heater and grab a bunch of snow in a short time, but until I see the storm threats lining up, I am not holding my breath. 

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8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’d be happy with one major (double digits) and one moderate warning event from here on out. I’m hoping for more than that, but realistically we have about 4-5 weeks left starting next week when things become favorable again. 
 

Sometimes you can get on a heater and grab a bunch of snow in a short time, but until I see the storm threats lining up, I am not holding my breath. 

Ya I’d be happy with that too. But for sure, we gotta see the whites of its eyes with the bad streak we’ve been on the last two years. 

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