Ginx snewx Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 3 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said: 40/70 thanks for the weenie BUT how has this winter not been an F- winter??? With a 18 inch storm for you and at normal snow. Put down the bong. F is south of the pike . 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: Agree but we will still need things to break right, so we can at least enjoy a region wide storm. Every snowstorm since time began. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 27 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea We have a small window to score a big event. Once the pac gets more hostile, we’ll need the atlantic to cooperate and call me crazy but we haven’t scored on that type of look since feb 21. So your saying there's a chance 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Gorgeous sunset!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Gfs close 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AstronomyEnjoyer Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs close Looking forward to it driving that bad boy up the great lakes at 00z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 19 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: So your saying there's a chance Like one in a million? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 54 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Garbage winter so far. It will take a double digit storm to bring us up to a D+ grade here. Agree on this being a garbage winter....well above normal temps and below normal snowfall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: I don't think it's a small window at all Looks like suppression during its peak before the small window for a big event opens up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Looks like suppression during its peak before the small window for a big event opens up. Suppression is mediated by more than just the arctic oscillation. Like the position of the PNA ridge. Or if there’s an active southern stream and split flow. And the positioning of high-pressure around Greenland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said: Suppression is mediated by more than just the arctic oscillation. Like the position of the PNA ridge. Or if there’s an active southern stream and split flow. And the positioning of high-pressure around Greenland. I don’t look at the charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariof Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 29 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said: Looking forward to it driving that bad boy up the great lakes at 00z. Three statisticians go duck hunting. The first one shoots one aims and fires a foot too high. The second one aims and fires a foot too low. The third one yells "we got him!" 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GCWarrior Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Pretty deep winter look across the crest of Berkshires still. I’ll snap a picture tomorrow. Such a huge difference from the valley up to over 1500’. I’m not saying it’s been a good winter by any stretch, we’re way behind in seasonal snowfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Continuity is very poor ... this GFS run bears only semblance to prior solutons. It's back to somewhat more convincing +PNA, but also is stretching the field in the W-E coordinate. That situation with that thing on the 13th ( relative to this run...) nary misses probably an otherwise massive event. N/Stream tries to subsume, but the S/Stream is outpacing due to that W--> E bias above.... Watching future guidance. The teleconnectors continue to flag impressive +PNA modality ...despite these distracting spatial layouts that try to go against. By the way, I realize some of you don't have faith in this system, but as far as I can tell, this is your index driven event. It's poorly handled up to this point, which likely wouldn't help its case. And, it is possible a middling system results...all that, but this particular system - I would guess - has the greatest up-side than any this year to date. So we'll see what the future guidance does. I will say though that the longevity of the +PNA comes into question, regardless. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 4 hours ago, Torch Tiger said: Yeah it's a C at this point, probably a D by the 15th. 12z gfs has a renegade clipper on the 18th but that's basically it Agree. Totally reasonable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 There’s that Subsume word again lol….it never seems to actually happen, but it’s a very interesting word nonetheless. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AstronomyEnjoyer Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 20 minutes ago, ariof said: Three statisticians go duck hunting. The first one shoots one aims and fires a foot too high. The second one aims and fires a foot too low. The third one yells "we got him!" I've tried that argument while playing darts, and it's never gotten me anywhere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Pretty solid move in the GEFs, as well... Notice the deep solutions are within the spread cluster over the NW arc... That's prooobaby an suggestion that there are more proficiently phased solutions; an N/stream grab favors that region of the cyclone envelope. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 51 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Like one in a million? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 2 hours ago, WinterWolf said: So pattern change cancel? oh well, at least we got to see how nice it looked on the modeling for a while. This year just like last despite it not feeling that way due to radiational cold in Nov? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: This year just like last despite it not feeling that way due to radiational cold in Nov? Hey, if we end up at the end of March, with what we/I had last year, I’ll gladly concede that it felt different, but it ended up the same. No worries, and no problem admitting so. But it ain’t close to over yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: This year just like last despite it not feeling that way due to radiational cold in Nov? Although around this time last year we had our lowest temps of the season (-10F for me); I could be wrong but I think our coldest stretch will be the 7 BN days we had in January 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Nice event we had 8 years ago today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 43 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Nice event we had 8 years ago today. That was a great system that came way west in the final 48-60 hours. It was almost a whiff at like 84 hours iirc. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That was a great system that came way west in the final 48-60 hours. It was almost a whiff at like 84 hours iirc. Let’s hope we can say in about 6 weeks or so, that we’ve picked up a few decent snow events to salvage what is a currently horrible season for a good chunk of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Let’s hope we can say in about 6 weeks or so, that we’ve picked up a few decent snow events to salvage what is a currently horrible season for a good chunk of us. I’d be happy with one major (double digits) and one moderate warning event from here on out. I’m hoping for more than that, but realistically we have about 4-5 weeks left starting next week when things become favorable again. Sometimes you can get on a heater and grab a bunch of snow in a short time, but until I see the storm threats lining up, I am not holding my breath. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I’d be happy with one major (double digits) and one moderate warning event from here on out. I’m hoping for more than that, but realistically we have about 4-5 weeks left starting next week when things become favorable again. Sometimes you can get on a heater and grab a bunch of snow in a short time, but until I see the storm threats lining up, I am not holding my breath. Ya I’d be happy with that too. But for sure, we gotta see the whites of its eyes with the bad streak we’ve been on the last two years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 If it isn’t going to snow then let’s just do this instead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 4 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: If it isn’t going to snow then let’s just do this instead No thanks 4 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: No thanks Ya I’m not a fan of 55 in February either. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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