CoastalWx Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Tough not to just expect everything to go wrong at this point...regardless of the pattern. I honestly haven’t looked ahead since Friday. Just looked now. Still seems like we roll the dice and see what happens. I’ll take that look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Tough not to just expect everything to go wrong at this point...regardless of the pattern. Biblical look at H5 @brooklynwx99 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 If you don't like that run of the GFS just wait for 4 hours, if this year proves anything it will be a totally different outcome at that point. Ensembles?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 The 2/13 threat is prior to good airmass advecting in…i mentioned this a couple days ago. Not a system of interest outside the interior elevated areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 5 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Biblical look at H5 @brooklynwx99 Well, that isn't the window outlined yet, to be fair....I was just lamenting the tone of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I honestly haven’t looked ahead since Friday. Just looked now. Still seems like we roll the dice and see what happens. I’ll take that look. Unless something drastically changes pattern wise I think anyone north of Kevin/MA-CT line has good chances, for those of us south of that area need better than marginal temp set up for anything substantial. It’s just the way the season has gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Jesus it’s a week away and you people are flopping all over the place with every run. good god it’s the start of pattern change and the models are trying to sort it out. 3 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The 2/13 threat is prior to good airmass advecting in…i mentioned this a couple days ago. Not a system of interest outside the interior elevated areas. I'd prefer it just be rain and I'm being 100% honest. One thing I am done with this year are the nuisance events that don't net me the day off, but get the sanders out to ensure a 2 hour commute. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 14 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: https://x.com/chuckwrathall/status/1754248252810047560?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg That was supposed to be ours at one time. Can you imagine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 16 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Biblical look at H5 @brooklynwx99 four more left! use them wisely. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 28 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Jesus it’s a week away and you people are flopping all over the place with every run. good god it’s the start of pattern change and the models are trying to sort it out. Thanks Wolfie. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 46 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Biblical look at H5 @brooklynwx99 .....humming the future's so bright I gotta wear shades... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Here in the Winter Wonderland aka Methuen it feels like mid March...back to bare ground with some lovely roadside snowbanks.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 It's semantics ... "suppression" of storm genesis is occurring in the Euro because of circumstances related to wave-space contention which results in a general pan-dimensional negative interference scheme between the 11th and 14th... Here, I'll show you: Contrasting ... the 00Z GGEM wonderfully illustrates how a stronger ridge evolution in the west, and perhaps just different overall logistical handling of the wave spaces ( not saying better or worse here - ), lends to a more cohesive singular operating wave space that goes on to produce a much more successful H.A. type index mode-change event... This GGEM results a strong NE storm ... aspects related to ptype and whether people "like" the solution, notwithstanding... But the purpose is to elucidate the causal difference in why the Euro isn't manifesting a real system. If you take the frame further above and cinema that out in time, you can see the attending sfc features/evolution do nothing ... like at all. The Euro is achieving some exotically high proficiency in cyclone "suppression" ... but not in the same context and circumstances of having too much compression of heights and all that jazz... 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 33 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Thanks Wolfie. The stress of the season is turning so many of us into different people. Or is it bring out the repressed parts of who we really are??!! Ray, care to comment? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 39 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Thanks Wolfie. I don’t even say anything….And still get blamed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 5 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: The stress of the season is turning so many of us into different people. Or is it bring out the repressed parts of who we really are??!! Ray, care to comment? Lots of broken weenies….they may never heal. But I agree, it’s a week out and right before any possible changing, so gotta expect large variability just from the time span of a week alone. And also the fact that things will be starting to shuffle at that point. But you know, if the OP runs don’t show big snows…it’s all bad. And even when they do, they tell you to sell lmao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 25 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Here in the Winter Wonderland aka Methuen it feels like mid March...back to bare ground with some lovely roadside snowbanks.. Heard a bird this morning that my brain associates with spring. We’re on to Morch! #NoChanges 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 A ratter is a rattler until I see the drifts imby. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 13 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: The stress of the season is turning so many of us into different people. Or is it bring out the repressed parts of who we really are??!! Ray, care to comment? It’s like drinking…it brings the repressed parts of our personalities into the forefront. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 EPS has some type of signal for Monday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: EPS has some type of signal for Monday. Almost more Monday night into Tuesday on the 00z run. But yeah, it has something. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Just now, CoastalWx said: Almost more Monday night into Tuesday on the 00z run. But yeah, it has something. Interior elevations....airmass is marginal and system looks weak. I guess if we make it a more potent system, it could get more interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 28 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: The stress of the season is turning so many of us into different people. Or is it bring out the repressed parts of who we really are??!! Ray, care to comment? People are just frustrated and sick of waiting on long range prospects that are never realized. Its absolutely exhaustuing. I don't think anyone on here allocates the degree of energy that I do and that may include some pros....at this point, I just want to be fucking done one way or another....just sick of it. Past several years I eat, sleep and breathe this shit from like August on in with very little dividends. I think its a combination of that, and we all like to escape from life via something we have so much passion for and mundane weather deprives us of that. I have posted in the past about how the common bond that we all share is that snow is the one thing in the world that makes us feel 5 years old again. The fact is that the vast majority of people don't have anything that does that. And when you have it, and are deprived of it, it elicits that infantile, viseral response akin to taking the tab away from my toddler. It is what it is- 14 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Interior elevations....airmass is marginal and system looks weak. I guess if we make it a more potent system, it could get more interesting. Seems that way yeah. Hopefully something to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Seems that way yeah. Hopefully something to track. Hopefully its not some useless inch...just keep it down the drain, please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Also noting some divergence in the EPS and GEFS out at the end of their runs....GEFS is trying to really push a very strong low into the GOA....Euro keeps it weaker and a bit further west....e.g., GEFS has a rapidly deteriorating PAC while the EPS does not. Both have a potent -NAO/AO though....which would be quite beneficial in the event of a deteriorating PAC, but a more hostile PAC starts to leave you with less wiggle room. Good news is that EPS led the GEFS for the mid-month switch, so hopefully they are more correct. We're also dealing with a potential SSW around the ides....if that happens, it could affect early March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Also noting some divergence in the EPS and GEFS out at the end of their runs....GEFS is trying to really push a very strong low into the GOA....Euro keeps it weaker and a bit further west....e.g., GEFS has a rapidly deteriorating PAC while the EPS does not. Both have a potent -NAO/AO though....which would be quite beneficial in the event of a deteriorating PAC, but a more hostile PAC starts to leave you with less wiggle room. Good news is that EPS led the GEFS for the mid-month switch, so hopefully they are more correct. We're also dealing with a potential SSW around the ides....if that happens, it could affect early March. I think I speak for everyone when I collectively opt to puff, puff pass on relying upon blocking to save the day in the face of a ca-ca Pacific. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Timber 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 25 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Heard a bird this morning that my brain associates with spring. We’re on to Morch! #NoChanges I've noticed this the past 2 weeks here as well. Been trying to ID them but there's, no doubt, been spring bird songs in the air recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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