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It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread


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2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The 13th system appears legit/in the pipeline regardless ... It's a matter of whether it benefits from the pattern modulation going on while it is transmitting through. 00z Euro jumped on board going from almost nothing identifiable, right to a long duration commitment to S of L.I. transit... when it also appeared to be abruptly faster and more coherent in pulsing the +d(PNA) forcing across the continent. Other than minor differences aloft, continuing that theme in the 12z. 

The GFS has had the system for 3 days actually.  But doesn't appear to have much +PNA ... going against its own ens mean.

The GGEM also has at least a paltry version...

All three operational runs have that space in time now reserved for something ...

Which given the overwhelming erstwhile super-synoptic weighting (tele's and ens mean layouts), firing up a thread is higher confidence (relative to this range).  The lower amplitude versions are less supported by the vast array of indicators.

Here's the thing.  The Euro is leading the GGEM and GEFs by moving it's mass fields toward the +d(PNA). It's version of 13th is acting much more like an H.A. event, with the flow plumbing along 100 W aft of the cyclone - it seems to be an index mode change entrance event.  

The other two models act as though they don't know where to take the pattern. Kind of wierd, but they look nondescript. The GFS solution out there in time doesn't represent a +2 SD PNA/ -d(EPO) very much at all ... In fact, it doesn't look like anything.  But the lack of modality doesn't help deepen the 13th like the Euro does ...so it ends up more middling and needle threading. 

 this all means you start a thread soon

 KOD for 2 years.

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Went for walk this afternoon. Still icy up at higher elevations on the southern elevations of Mt. Sunapee (highest elevation in photo is like 2400 ft). Snow pack in yard is holding steady at 12.5". Uniformly dense with not much in the way of discernible layers. Meaty stuff - even when stomping I only manage to go down 3" or so. Never measured it before, but I'll grab a snow water equivalent tomorrow.

20240204_SunapeeSunsetCrop.jpg

20240204_snowdepthcrop.jpg

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5 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Nice pattern change

image.thumb.png.29ab6f50d4e7c82d81292029da3fe8c6.png

No kidding… I was talking to John about this. I’m not so sure anymore because of a few reasons … too long/complicated to wanna bother. 

…that said, I would use the ensemble mean at this range

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5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

When I saw you posted in here I knew it was going to be something reflecting warmer temperature anomalies. And 384-hr 850 temperature anomalies...and using a static hour to signify a pattern change :facepalm:  

 

he is right. this is indeed a nice pattern change 

IMG_4595.thumb.png.23bb3bf0eb7e13edd7fd67576774caaa.png

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