Ginx snewx Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I take it nothing to see on the 12z suite lol Bickering over the degree to which a snowy March can save winter... Fact being no one even said that but then the narrative began. Funny place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AstronomyEnjoyer Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 12 minutes ago, powderfreak said: What a glorious day of sunshine. Ah, it's finally clear up there! I'll need to drive up to the top of my local hill tomorrow to see if I can get a snap of Stowe. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Gfs coming in slightly flatter than 12z for the 13th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: The 13th system appears legit/in the pipeline regardless ... It's a matter of whether it benefits from the pattern modulation going on while it is transmitting through. 00z Euro jumped on board going from almost nothing identifiable, right to a long duration commitment to S of L.I. transit... when it also appeared to be abruptly faster and more coherent in pulsing the +d(PNA) forcing across the continent. Other than minor differences aloft, continuing that theme in the 12z. The GFS has had the system for 3 days actually. But doesn't appear to have much +PNA ... going against its own ens mean. The GGEM also has at least a paltry version... All three operational runs have that space in time now reserved for something ... Which given the overwhelming erstwhile super-synoptic weighting (tele's and ens mean layouts), firing up a thread is higher confidence (relative to this range). The lower amplitude versions are less supported by the vast array of indicators. Here's the thing. The Euro is leading the GGEM and GEFs by moving it's mass fields toward the +d(PNA). It's version of 13th is acting much more like an H.A. event, with the flow plumbing along 100 W aft of the cyclone - it seems to be an index mode change entrance event. The other two models act as though they don't know where to take the pattern. Kind of wierd, but they look nondescript. The GFS solution out there in time doesn't represent a +2 SD PNA/ -d(EPO) very much at all ... In fact, it doesn't look like anything. But the lack of modality doesn't help deepen the 13th like the Euro does ...so it ends up more middling and needle threading. this all means you start a thread soon KOD for 2 years. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Layman Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 There was clearly a mosquito hatch in my area. Even with temps in the mid 20’s overnight, I’ve seen four separate mosquitoes the past 24 hours. Unusual for early February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 37 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Our neighborhood is pretty much one of three left in town with any type of snow. Even here in sunny spots grass is out . Hopefully the Vday storm happens . About how my yard looks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Fact being no one even said that but then the narrative began. Funny place Worst part of boring weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: About how my yard looks I got snow cover in my front yard while across the street is grass. Spring snow pack pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Yes indeed its absolutely insane with the amounts of snow. My Aunt's house in Inverness, right by the beach. Feet of snow 20 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJln491 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 18 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs coming in slightly flatter than 12z for the 13th It’s flat alright Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I got snow cover in my front yard while across the street is grass. Spring snow pack pattern. There were certainly some red necks out in yards today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 15 minutes ago, butterfish55 said: My Aunt's house in Inverness, right by the beach. Feet of snow Cape Breton one of my favorite places on the planet (earth). Paging Hazey...how did you do? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 There 5-6 feet on the level all across E Nova Scotia. With several more feet into tomorrow. Their all time snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 LOL at the 18z GFS. We go from a 992mb low just to our east to a 1014 high in 6 hours. It is d9, but still... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 https://x.com/chuckwrathall/status/1754248252810047560?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: There 5-6 feet on the level all across E Nova Scotia. With several more feet into tomorrow. Their all time snowstorm You should be Trump's press campaign manager 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AstronomyEnjoyer Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Went for walk this afternoon. Still icy up at higher elevations on the southern elevations of Mt. Sunapee (highest elevation in photo is like 2400 ft). Snow pack in yard is holding steady at 12.5". Uniformly dense with not much in the way of discernible layers. Meaty stuff - even when stomping I only manage to go down 3" or so. Never measured it before, but I'll grab a snow water equivalent tomorrow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 The run is completely diverged from its own ensemble mean in the extended ... it's been tending to diverge, but this is a full on coma - 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 23 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: The run is completely diverged from its own ensemble mean in the extended ... it's been tending to diverge, but this is a full on coma - 18z…that’s all that needs to be said. Joke off hr runs period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EMontpelierWhiteout Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 56 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: There 5-6 feet on the level all across E Nova Scotia. With several more feet into tomorrow. Their all time snowstorm Environment Canada says another 25 cm. That’s 10”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 18 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: 18z…that’s all that needs to be said. Joke off hr runs period. yeah yeah, but it's been doing it on every cycle way more so than usual deviation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Shift that omega block 400 miles to the west and SNE gets a HECS, not Nova Scotia. Bad luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 hour ago, butterfish55 said: My Aunt's house in Inverness, right by the beach. Feet of snow Looks like Scooter's pics in Feb 2015. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 16 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: Shift that omega block 400 miles to the west and SNE gets a HECS, not Nova Scotia. Bad luck What’s 400mi amongst friends… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Notice some bulbs coming up today. Had a few customers today and had to dig through the wood pile. Grass growing beneath. It won't be long... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Seems like people are getting context fatigue when it comes to this winter. Fwiw the ensembles show that the operation version is an excessive outlier wrt the 13th 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Nice pattern change 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 When I saw you posted in here I knew it was going to be something reflecting warmer temperature anomalies. And 384-hr 850 temperature anomalies...and using a static hour to signify a pattern change 5 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 5 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Nice pattern change No kidding… I was talking to John about this. I’m not so sure anymore because of a few reasons … too long/complicated to wanna bother. …that said, I would use the ensemble mean at this range 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: When I saw you posted in here I knew it was going to be something reflecting warmer temperature anomalies. And 384-hr 850 temperature anomalies...and using a static hour to signify a pattern change he is right. this is indeed a nice pattern change 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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