MJO812 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Eps is flatter than the op for the storm around the 13th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 That storm has a decent airmass ad modeled. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yup. It's all been a pretty textbook layout in the teleconnector projections going back a week or more actually.. . Over the time, the ens mean of all three majors began materializing what that should actually like at hemispheric scales, and considering at the time we were looking at 2 and 3 week outlooks ... the coherence was impressive. it's not bad at all. confluence is building in, Canada is pretty blocked up, and the PNA is rising quickly 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 I get how some are concerned with suppression but I just don't see suppression being a large concern. Too me it seems like pattern during the favorable period would favor potential for cyclogenesis anywhere from just off the Delmarva to mid-Atlantic coasts. Doesn't necessarily mean we get crushed as storm track could still be slightly out-to-sea but not sure I would qualify that as suppression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 15 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Oh look, another storm with no cold and a brutal cutoff SOP Verbatim there’s a ton of cold and a great airmass, it cuts west before transferring so the mid levels warm south of the pike and a ton of mixing. All we can take out of this run is that it has a juicy storm again 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted February 4 Author Share Posted February 4 I think we made it 2 pages without a snow map. Must be a record I am on my honeymoon, been too busy XDSent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 10 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Eps is flatter than the op for the storm around the 13th. If you take a look at the indies there’s actually more like the op a ton of interior northeast hits and a few at the coast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That storm has a decent airmass ad modeled. 1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Verbatim there’s a ton of cold and a great airmass, it cuts west before transferring so the mid levels warm south of the pike and a ton of mixing. All we can take out of this run is that it has a juicy storm again Ya, I don’t know what Brett was looking at? There was a good cold airmass there on that depiction. He still drunk from his vacation in N. Conway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Ya, I don’t know what Brett was looking at? There was a good cold airmass there on that depiction. He still drunk from his vacation in N. Conway. I mean it gets in low 30s at the coast, but it wasn’t bad to me overall. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: 56 had 27 as of 2-12 55(55-56) had 11.2” from Nov to February 12. Then it flipped big time from Feb12-May 1 according to that chart with 58”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Euro’s really the only thing that’s got a good airmass to force redevelopment. Ride the pony at your own risk. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Euro’s really the only thing that’s got a good airmass to force redevelopment. Ride the pony at your own risk. Ahh who cares at this lead, it’s a 9 day prog lol. Pattern change is just setting in at that point. Ride anything at your own risk at 9 days. We were Just talking ver batim on that particular run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 58 minutes ago, qg_omega said: we saw this before with the OPs looking meh and ens looking great at H5...... Yea, then I got 19". 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, then I got 19". and the MA had a 10" week and change, I know nobody cares about that here, but still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Good amount of snowmobiles out today from N Conway down just past Wakefield NH (Wakefield has a nice weenie spot at about 960’ on rte. 16) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Speaking of the euro snowstorm on d9, gefs had it as well. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 44 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Euro’s really the only thing that’s got a good airmass to force redevelopment. Ride the pony at your own risk. The 13th system appears legit/in the pipeline regardless ... It's a matter of whether it benefits from the pattern modulation going on while it is transmitting through. 00z Euro jumped on board going from almost nothing identifiable, right to a long duration commitment to S of L.I. transit... when it also appeared to be abruptly faster and more coherent in pulsing the +d(PNA) forcing across the continent. Other than minor differences aloft, continuing that theme in the 12z. The GFS has had the system for 3 days actually. But doesn't appear to have much +PNA ... going against its own ens mean. The GGEM also has at least a paltry version... All three operational runs have that space in time now reserved for something ... Which given the overwhelming erstwhile super-synoptic weighting (tele's and ens mean layouts), firing up a thread is higher confidence (relative to this range). The lower amplitude versions are less supported by the vast array of indicators. Here's the thing. The Euro is leading the GGEM and GEFs by moving it's mass fields toward the +d(PNA). It's version of 13th is acting much more like an H.A. event, with the flow plumbing along 100 W aft of the cyclone - it seems to be an index mode change entrance event. The other two models act as though they don't know where to take the pattern. Kind of wierd, but they look nondescript. The GFS solution out there in time doesn't represent a +2 SD PNA/ -d(EPO) very much at all ... In fact, it doesn't look like anything. But the lack of modality doesn't help deepen the 13th like the Euro does ...so it ends up more middling and needle threading. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Gorgeous bluebird day. Feels like mid March. A beauty. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: and the MA had a 10" week and change, I know nobody cares about that here, but still Odds are always that some spots will get left out, it doesn't mean that the pattern never changed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: The 13th system appears legit/in the pipeline regardless ... It's matter of whether it benefits from the pattern modulation going on while it is transmitting through. The GFS has had it for 3 days actually. 00z Euro jumped on board going from almost nothing identifiable, right to a long duration commitment to S of L.I. transit... Other than minor differences aloft, continuing that theme in the 12z. The GGEM also has at least a paltry version... All three operational runs have that space in time now reserved for something ... Which given the overwhelming erstwhile super-synoptic weighting (tele's and ens mean layouts), firing up a thread is higher confidence (relative to this range). Here's the thing. The Euro is leading the GGEM and GEFs by moving it's mass fields toward the +d(PNA). It's version of 13th is acting much more like an H.A. event, with the flow plumbing along 100 W aft of the cyclone - it seems to be an index mode change entrance event. The other two models act as though they don't know where to take the pattern. Kind of wierd, but they look nondescript. The GFS solution out there in time doesn't represent a +2 SD PNA/ -d(EPO) very much at all ... In fact, it doesn't look like anything. But the lack of modality doesn't help deepen the 13th like the Euro does ...so it ends up more middling and needle threading. Yea that makes sense. I’m just leary, or weary, of a good airmass rushing into se canada and superseding a developing midwest shortwave. We’ve been stuck in this mode of not properly timing good airmasses, as rare as those have been in the first place. I think for us SoP folk, we need to get through another borderline cold rain event, or two, before we can drop our pants for the epic H5 maps to take hold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 45 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Euro’s really the only thing that’s got a good airmass to force redevelopment. Ride the pony at your own risk. Be safe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Still looks promising for Saturday! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 minute ago, Torch Tiger said: Still looks promising for Saturday! It's been dimming though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 57 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Euro’s really the only thing that’s got a good airmass to force redevelopment. Ride the pony at your own risk. I get your hesitation. It's been like that all winter long, but if there's some hope then there's hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: It's been dimming though Dim sun 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 51 minutes ago, weathafella said: Speaking of the euro snowstorm on d9, gefs had it as well. And eps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 4 hours ago, Hazey said: Maritime storm update. Snowfall in my place is 15” (38cms) and still snowing. Probably will get a 20 spot out of this. Cape Breton destroyed. It’s Sydney’s White Juan. 2-3ft down and 1-2ft to go. This will be a generational storm for eastern parts of NS. Chase worthy. I was curious what would happen if an atmospheric river set up in winter. Now I know. Pic from Cape Breton with lots to go. Wild. Yes indeed its absolutely insane with the amounts of snow. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Our neighborhood is pretty much one of three left in town with any type of snow. Even here in sunny spots grass is out . Hopefully the Vday storm happens . 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 What a glorious day of sunshine. 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Notice some bulbs coming up today. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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