STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 12 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Don’t forget about the rainers before the h5 epocity sets in. Do you ever wish you could live at hour 300 at H5 Or that you are after spending An hour here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Do you ever wish you could live at hour 300 at H5 Or that you are after spending An hour here It has beautiful potential. The real estate is becoming expensive though as sne weenies are moving in masses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: just a gorgeous evolution... very high confidence for a semi permanent 50/50 ULL, west based blocking, and a stream of waves off the Pacific undercutting the AK ridge. all three ensembles share this same progression as well, there is great agreement there too i'm kinda wondering if that trough moving eastward in the Pacific is the storm, or if we just get a lobe from said trough\ A couple of questions if you don’t mind: Besides, a phased, coastal storm, what other kinds of events might this pattern produce? Will 50-50 be suppressive? Is there a possibility of Clipper Miller Bs in this pattern? thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 5 hours ago, Torch Tiger said: 0z gfs a disaster for SNE. Looking at Op runs at this distance for specific details... Tisk Tisk... are you crazy? 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 19 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: A couple of questions if you don’t mind: Besides, a phased, coastal storm, what other kinds of events might this pattern produce? Will 50-50 be suppressive? Is there a possibility of Clipper Miller Bs in this pattern? thanks I think that this pattern allows for a true high-end event later in the month, generally from a potent southern stream vort traveling underneath the vort and phasing, but yeah, you can get clipper or Miller Bs from the AK ridge. I would say that this probably favors SNE rather than NNE for sure, as there can be some suppression depending on how strong the blocking and associated 50/50 ULL get. I'd feel a lot better in Danbury than Nashua 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: I would say that this probably favors SNE rather than NNE for sure, as there can be some suppression depending on how strong the vort gets. I'd feel a lot better in Danbury than Nashua I’d take the other side of that wager without hesitation for ASH and most areas north if we are talking snowfall for Feb into March 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 25 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It has beautiful potential. The real estate is becoming expensive though as sne weenies are moving in masses. I’ll wait to make sure interest rates look good to fall in 5 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 42 minutes ago, UnitedWx said: Looking at Op runs at this distance for specific details... Tisk Tisk... are you crazy? just the overall vibe of the run...no deets 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 38 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I’d take the other side of that wager without hesitation for ASH and most areas north if we are talking snowfall for Feb into March The pattern looks suppression-y but we'll see, I'd also wager +north - south but that's climo anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Man, to see the sun again. What a treat. Some awesome alpenglow this morning too as the sun first came up. 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 37 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I’d take the other side of that wager without hesitation for ASH and most areas north if we are talking snowfall for Feb into March Yeah me too. That western ridge isn’t that far east. In addition, you can see later in the period how the Aleutian low is starting to migrate east and trying to become a GOA low. That will also start making things more precarious the further south you are. Now maybe the NAO offsets it enough or the Aleutian low never makes it far enough east to beat down the western ridge (weeklies sort of reload it further west in late February/early Mar), but I’d always be leery of things that can push the goods further north because that has been a recurring theme. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah me too. That western ridge isn’t that far east. In addition, you can see later in the period how the Aleutian low is starting to migrate east and trying to become a GOA low. That will also start making things more precarious the further south you are. Now maybe the NAO offsets it enough or the Aleutian low never makes it far enough east to beat down the western ridge (weeklies sort of reload it further west in late February/early Mar), but I’d always be leery of things that can push the goods further north because that has been a recurring theme. Yup. SoP has a 10-14 day window to get it done then we’ll watch NoP tickle themselves to close out the brutal season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Will Ray be happy with all the storms going south, but at least it helps his outlook for those places? Well, at the end of the day, I still need over 30" more up here, smart ass. 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 My in-laws who live in Cape Breton, NS reporting over 2 feet at their house near Inverness and still dumping. Just spoke with them on FaceTime and saw the snow was almost covering their 3 foot garden fence. Would have been nice to have that here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 For sne, it’s really unusual for a winter to flip mid February on. 2006-07 kind of did but more for NNE. 1959-60 growing up in NNJ had the most epic flip with a rock em sock em March after a crappy winter for a 13 year old snow lover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: I think that this pattern allows for a true high-end event later in the month, generally from a potent southern stream vort traveling underneath the vort and phasing, but yeah, you can get clipper or Miller Bs from the AK ridge. I would say that this probably favors SNE rather than NNE for sure, as there can be some suppression depending on how strong the blocking and associated 50/50 ULL get. I'd feel a lot better in Danbury than Nashua Nashua isn't NNE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 36 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah me too. That western ridge isn’t that far east. In addition, you can see later in the period how the Aleutian low is starting to migrate east and trying to become a GOA low. That will also start making things more precarious the further south you are. Now maybe the NAO offsets it enough or the Aleutian low never makes it far enough east to beat down the western ridge (weeklies sort of reload it further west in late February/early Mar), but I’d always be leery of things that can push the goods further north because that has been a recurring theme. Remember what I have said all year about that residual cool ENSO GLAAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 7 minutes ago, weathafella said: For sne, it’s really unusual for a winter to flip mid February on. 2006-07 kind of did but more for NNE. 1959-60 growing up in NNJ had the most epic flip with a rock em sock em March after a crappy winter for a 13 year old snow lover. I would not be suprised at all by an ending like 2007. It's been one of my primary analogs. That was another case with the forcing so far west that we had a great deal of cool ENSO like Maritime continent influence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I’ll wait to make sure interest rates look good to fall in 5 days What's the average price at Weenie Estates. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: I think that this pattern allows for a true high-end event later in the month, generally from a potent southern stream vort traveling underneath the vort and phasing, but yeah, you can get clipper or Miller Bs from the AK ridge. I would say that this probably favors SNE rather than NNE for sure, as there can be some suppression depending on how strong the blocking and associated 50/50 ULL get. I'd feel a lot better in Danbury than Nashua RAY : “He said Nashua and suppression” 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Weenies bickering about Suppression and how long any flip can last, and we don’t even know if a concerted flip will even happen yet. Plus Things seem to trend north most times anyways, so suppression is the last thing I’d be worried about at this stage here in SNE/CNE. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Weenies bickering about Suppression and how long any flip can last, and we don’t even know if a concerted flip will even happen yet. Plus Things seem to trend north most times anyways, so suppression is the last thing I’d be worried about at this stage here in SNE/CNE. Exactly plus with that subtropical moisture feed I think we will be fine. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Exactly plus with that subtropical moisture feed I think we will be fine. Yup..I agree. Let’s just get the potential change here first, before we worry about any such nuances. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 21 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: RAY : “He said Nashua and suppression” I could see it for one lone major event, but not the entire pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Weenies bickering about Suppression and how long any flip can last, and we don’t even know if a concerted flip will even happen yet. Plus Things seem to trend north most times anyways, so suppression is the last thing I’d be worried about at this stage here in SNE/CNE. Its going to happen. What we don't know is how long it lasts and how much snow falls, where. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 19 hours ago, Layman said: Does that kind of mileage beat you up at all is it totally gear dependent? A ride like that sounds awesome to me and the pics you guys post look great. It's something I'd really like to try with the family sometime, although I imagine a rental/guide service won't be doing tons of miles over a few short hours. Depends on the amount of traffic on the trails, Weekends there is a lot and by the afternoon, The trails are beat up, We rode back country on Saturday so there was not to many sleds as they stay on the trails, I try going up on the weekdays when there is less traffic and on fresh groomed trails, But the suspension in these sleds make riding good even on wash board trails late in the day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its going to happen. What we don't know is how long it lasts and how much snow falls, where. I’d lean that way too…but just being cautious still. It’s getting closer now, and things still looking good, but we gotta see the “Whites of its eyes.” 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 5 minutes ago, dryslot said: Depends on the amount of traffic on the trails, Weekends there is a lot and by the afternoon, The trails are beat up, We rode back country on Saturday so there was not to many sleds as they stay on the trails, I try going up on the weekdays when there is less traffic and on fresh groomed trails, But the suspension in these sleds make riding good even on wash board trails late in the day. Yes, as you know these new suspensions are most impressive now a days. Newer Sleds can vacuum up alot of nastiness that used to be lousy trail conditions. But if the trails get really whooped out, then it can still be tough. But if clubs keep up on things, and temps stay cool, that kind of crap doesn’t happen all too often in the areas where clubs are on top of things. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 13 hours ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said: To ensure that I'm not slant-sticking. It's the perfect technique. Infallible really. Is your eyesight bad? You should be using a level and a plumb bob too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 37 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: What's the average price at Weenie Estates. They told me my money is no good there till they see me loop a lot more animations 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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