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It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread


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Right now the GFS is really the only operational model that goes out long enough to show much of anything very interesting. But I understand and I'll stop, or at least add a warning label or something if I post something similar again. Here comes my "but" bit though - "misleading for someone not checking the dates"  I don't think I've ever seen a caveat carry so much weight. That thing is straining my friend.
Post away! "Doesn't check dates" that's their problem.
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Just got in from North Conway. They’ve definitely been pretty lucky up that way I think. Heading south on the Spaulding highway, after about a half hour the snow conditions were pretty sketchy. We saw people snowmobiling but there couldn’t have been more than 3-4” on the ground. Different world up in bear notch obviously.

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Was out and about doing more "auditing" as it were. Ran into some issues this time that prevented me from getting a good reading in the area. Either the Ammonoosuc River very recently flooded, or the tee boxes at the Mount Washington Resort golf course are routinely cleared of snow. I thought I might be hitting an icy layer, but it turns out I might owe a golf superintendent somewhere an apology instead. At least it would explain my confusion as to why Bretton Woods only had a 4" layer of powder on the ground.

20240203_144448.jpg

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I’m thinking they may be the same person? Kinda odd to have two people so similar in posting style to just randomly pop up and start mass posting 
In my defense, I have been on the southeast forum for years, only reason I been hunting this storm is the fact I got romantic plans for Valentine's Day and the day after so I been on it like a cat to a mouse

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

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1 hour ago, BombsAway1288 said:

Yeah these are getting a bit ridiculous for the lead time. We really don’t need to see how much qpf an 18z run spit out for events that are 2 weeks away

Meteorologists can't even figure out what's gonna happen in 6 hours let alone 2 weeks. 3 PM NWS forecast for tonight: mostly clear. 6 PM NWS forecast: mostly cloudy. LOL. No one has a clue. You could go back to last Sunday's forecasts that showed partly cloudy/sunny forecasts for this past week and we all know how that worked out.

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1 hour ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

Right now the GFS is really the only operational model that goes out long enough to show much of anything very interesting. But I understand and I'll stop, or at least add a warning label or something if I post something similar again. Here comes my "but" bit though - "misleading for someone not checking the dates"  I don't think I've ever seen a caveat carry so much weight. That thing is straining my friend.

I think most check the dates, but just in general. It’s cool that you post maps, and I appreciate it, but it seems you will include other events in those maps which skews the totals, obviously. I know I’ve seen other members here, with much more tenure than me, ask you to be a bit more accurate with the maps when you post them. Sorry, hope this isn’t coming across as rude. You seem like a good guy.

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26 minutes ago, NotSureWeather said:

I think most check the dates, but just in general. It’s cool that you post maps, and I appreciate it, but it seems you will include other events in those maps which skews the totals, obviously. I know I’ve seen other members here, with much more tenure than me, ask you to be a bit more accurate with the maps when you post them. Sorry, hope this isn’t coming across as rude. You seem like a good guy.

In the spirit of this discussion, here's a long range total snowfall map. :D:weenie:

sn10_acc-mean-imp.us_ne.png

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1 hour ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

Was out and about doing more "auditing" as it were. Ran into some issues this time that prevented me from getting a good reading in the area. Either the Ammonoosuc River very recently flooded, or the tee boxes at the Mount Washington Resort golf course are routinely cleared of snow. I thought I might be hitting an icy layer, but it turns out I might owe a golf superintendent somewhere an apology instead. At least it would explain my confusion as to why Bretton Woods only had a 4" layer of powder on the ground.

20240203_144448.jpg

Lol that's the worst possible area to measure snow. The golf course is very windswept, I've seen grass poke through after a 15" storm. 

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15 minutes ago, NotSureWeather said:

I think most check the dates, but just in general. It’s cool that you post maps, and I appreciate it, but it seems you will include other events in those maps which skews the totals, obviously. I know I’ve seen other members here, with much more tenure than me, ask you to be a bit more accurate with the maps when you post them. Sorry, hope this isn’t coming across as rude. You seem like a good guy.

I'll take your word for it and apologize if I have posted a map for a credible in range threat that ended up being inflated because my time bracket included snows not relating to the event - and - I'm pretty sure I have on accident and out of inexperience. Given the limited attachment space we are allotted I've had to delete tons of attachments which makes it difficult to audit what I've previously posted.

I do recall this interaction where I posted a clown with an obvious joke in it and someone responded back about breaking out the later storm - but the later storm was modeled 300 hours away, i.e., well into clown range. I'm not terribly concerned about ensuring the fidelity of a storm that's 300 hours out (also, in this instance, there was pretty obvious geographic separation).

The entire reason I posted that clown map was because the 300 hour clown storm was what turned it into a "clown map" in the first place. The initial storm was already posted as modeled so I don't see how any confusion could have taken place. If so, I apologize.

See the attached of that interaction (though I snipped it out and you might need a magnifying glass to read anything, if so I'll figure out a better way to post, haha)

And for what it's worth, you seem like a good guy as well.

Storm breakout.jpg

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29 minutes ago, alex said:

Lol that's the worst possible area to measure snow. The golf course is very windswept, I've seen grass poke through after a 15" storm. 

Yeah, I know, it's just for the gag, but at first I was a little confused and for a second I thought I was poking the yard stick onto a green and my heart sank. Tee box still ain't great.

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2 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

Yeah, I know, it's just for the gag, but at first I was a little confused and for a second I thought I was poking the yard stick onto a green and my heart sank. Tee box still ain't great.

Take the hints you’re getting…

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55 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

TBH, I'd be disappointed if I got 14" between now and March 8th.

Yeah, that map really isn’t showing that much snow for most places. Normal to below in a lot of places. Just lots of pretty colors because it’s 840 hours.

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On 2/2/2024 at 5:34 AM, SnoSki14 said:

I think this summer is going to be brutal for a lot of people and I predict one of the most damaging hurricane seasons ever. The MDR is cooking right now and we might shift to Cool ENSO by the summer. 

A deadly combination 

a very hot and dry summer followed by a cold and snowy winter is what usually happens when a strong el nino transitions to a la nina, those are my favorite combos.  I loved 2010 and I'm hoping for a repeat.

 

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2 hours ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

Was out and about doing more "auditing" as it were. Ran into some issues this time that prevented me from getting a good reading in the area. Either the Ammonoosuc River very recently flooded, or the tee boxes at the Mount Washington Resort golf course are routinely cleared of snow. I thought I might be hitting an icy layer, but it turns out I might owe a golf superintendent somewhere an apology instead. At least it would explain my confusion as to why Bretton Woods only had a 4" layer of powder on the ground.

20240203_144448.jpg

Why are you measuring snow with a speed square? 

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While my approval rating is at an all time low, here are some of the pics I took today up at the top of the 2000 ft MSL road in Newbury, Nh. So awesome to see the Sun finally coming out. Snapped decent photos of Okemo and Killington. I think I can get Stowe, but will need perfectly clear weather - no dice today. Also need to bring my real camera, not my cell phone.

20240203_icetreelakesunapee.jpg

20240203_Killington.jpg

20240203_Okemo_Clearest.jpg

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9 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

While my approval rating is at an all time low, here are some of the pics I took today up at the top of the 2000 ft MSL road in Newbury, Nh. So awesome to see the Sun finally coming out. Snapped decent photos of Okemo and Killington. I think I can get Stowe, but will need perfectly clear weather - no dice today. Also need to bring my real camera, not my cell phone.

20240203_icetreelakesunapee.jpg

20240203_Killington.jpg

20240203_Okemo_Clearest.jpg

I’m in these pictures. We snowmobiled from Woodstock to Ludlow today. You really have to blow them up to see me though. 

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