codfishsnowman Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 1 hour ago, SouthCoastMA said: I wish I measured correctly for 1/22/05 though it was pretty difficult. Had between 26-28" depth the next day That's a monster storm. I think you could say you had 30 inches and be very realistic. How did you do in the clipper a few days later and did your overall depth increase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Layman Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 2 hours ago, dryslot said: 100 miles this morning, Got close to Pittsburg NH Does that kind of mileage beat you up at all is it totally gear dependent? A ride like that sounds awesome to me and the pics you guys post look great. It's something I'd really like to try with the family sometime, although I imagine a rental/guide service won't be doing tons of miles over a few short hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 8 hours ago, snowman19 said: I mentioned this earlier but we are seeing a very rapid strengthening and warming of this El Niño over the last 7 days (WWB/-SOI related). Region 3.4 is over +1.9C and fast approaching +2C, region 3 almost at +2C. None of the models predicted this and it is extremely unusual to see a Nino event strengthening in February. IMO this is going to be a big unexpected factor in the global long wave pattern and PAC jet going forward@Coastalwx @ORH_wxman @Mitchnick @JBenedet @Typhoon Tip So it’s strong? That’s what that data says. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: So it’s strong? That’s what that data says. It’s snowman19’s passive-aggressive way of trying to downplay any potential in the pattern for mid-February and beyond. Ray sniffed out his M.O. pretty well. I’ll personally be watching shortwaves dive out of Canada and anything southern stream…others can worry about dips and peaks in Nino 3.4 in February if they want. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 4 hours ago, ChangeofSeasonsWX said: I still find it hard to believe that PVD got 7.0" on May 9-10, 1977. I can't even imagine what that much snow would look like with fully leafed green trees. Not even October 2011 produced even close to that much snow around here. I wonder what the return period is for May 1977. Probably like a 500 year event. What's really strange is that PVD's 7" was more than 5 times the 1.3" at BDL.I think there was a major controversy at BWI for that storm. They were clearing every hour or something like that. Same thing happened at BOS too…BOS real total was prob more like 23” instead of the “record” 27.6”. Yea, 1978 is still king...those were all total depth measurements, too. Both storms started with 3" depth at Boston. 1978 raised the pack to 29" while PDII brought it only to 19". 'Nuf said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 2 hours ago, SouthCoastMA said: I wish I measured correctly for 1/22/05 though it was pretty difficult. Had between 26-28" depth the next day I had multiple measurements over 30” around our neighborhood in Cambridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Definitely a suppression risk to me on gefs and eps today. A little less nao would not be bad imho.Compare the GEFS and EPS to the monthly H5 composite anomaly for Feb 2010 and I think I'd be less worried right now about suppression depression, though interested in other's thoughts on that. The GEFS has a slightly farther south mean position of the NAO block (still not like the strong southwest based block in Feb 2010) but less of a +PNA eventually so maybe the farther south block would be a net benefit there. EPS has a more favorable +PNA pattern and mean blocking position is farther north with negative height anomalies over most of Hudson Bay.I think the pattern looks at least semi interesting out here in the Chicago area, probably especially on the GEFS, so would continue to feel cautiously optimistic for the parts of New England and northern Mid Atlantic that have been shafted thus far. The position and strength of the NAO block is certainly something to watch moving forward regarding an event increased suppression risk though. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 3 hours ago, SouthCoastMA said: I wish I measured correctly for 1/22/05 though it was pretty difficult. Had between 26-28" depth the next day You probably had in the low 30s... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 25 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Compare the GEFS and EPS to the monthly H5 composite anomaly for Feb 2010 and I think I'd be less worried right now about suppression depression, though interested in other's thoughts on that. The GEFS has a slightly farther south mean position of the NAO block (still not like the strong southwest based block in Feb 2010) but less of a +PNA eventually so maybe the farther south block would be a net benefit there. EPS has a more favorable +PNA pattern and mean blocking position is farther north with negative height anomalies over most of Hudson Bay. I think the pattern looks at least semi interesting out here in the Chicago area, probably especially on the GEFS, so would continue to feel cautiously optimistic for the parts of New England and northern Mid Atlantic that have been shafted thus far. The position and strength of the NAO block is certainly something to watch moving forward regarding an event increased suppression risk though. It was something I mentioned ( in snark) a couple hours ago because I noticed the 00Z GEPs mean getting aggressive with this look ... Having said that ...it's really kind of silly to angst. That chart is 360+ hours ... The 12z seemed to ease off slightly, and the EPS and GEFs were not as excessive anyway. The other thing is .. when has any time range beyond 240 hours ever been a lock on an NAO mode? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 2 hours ago, DavisStraight said: Didn't do as much as you but had fun, great conditions. We had good conditions in central VT too. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 1 hour ago, Layman said: Does that kind of mileage beat you up at all is it totally gear dependent? A ride like that sounds awesome to me and the pics you guys post look great. It's something I'd really like to try with the family sometime, although I imagine a rental/guide service won't be doing tons of miles over a few short hours. It depends on the sled you ride and the trail conditions. Modern sleds have great suspensions and rider position. It makes rides like the one @dryslotdid pretty comfortable. It also depends on trail conditions though. If you really bumpy conditions, comfort can be severely reduced. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 7 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: That system is an uphill battle imho. It’s prior to advecting in a decent airmass so it’s gonna have to thread the needle (surprise!)…guidance currently progressively gets more favorable beyond that timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AstronomyEnjoyer Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 18z GFS swinging for the fences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted February 3 Author Share Posted February 3 18z GFS swinging for the fences.No kidding...Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted February 3 Author Share Posted February 3 Hahaha, freaking lmaoSent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AstronomyEnjoyer Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 18z GFS wasn't shy about moisture this time. Thank goodness, we've been in need of moisture. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChangeofSeasonsWX Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 1 hour ago, tamarack said: What's really strange is that PVD's 7" was more than 5 times the 1.3" at BDL.I think there was a major controversy at BWI for that storm. They were clearing every hour or something like that. Same thing happened at BOS too…BOS real total was prob more like 23” instead of the “record” 27.6”. Yea, 1978 is still king...those were all total depth measurements, too. Both storms started with 3" depth at Boston. 1978 raised the pack to 29" while PDII brought it only to 19". 'Nuf said. Yep BDL picked up 1.3", HFD 1.3", and BOS 0.5", which is very strange. ORH got 12.7" which is obviously still crazy for May, but 7.0" in PVD is even more remarkable considering its coastal location. I wonder what dynamics were in play with that storm to cause an ORH-PVD zone jackpot? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotSureWeather Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 24 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said: 18z GFS wasn't shy about moisture this time. Thank goodness, we've been in need of moisture. Can you please stop posting these maps that are including a two week run? It’s a bit misleading for someone not checking the dates. 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: It’s snowman19’s passive-aggressive way of trying to downplay any potential in the pattern for mid-February and beyond. Ray sniffed out his M.O. pretty well. I’ll personally be watching shortwaves dive out of Canada and anything southern stream…others can worry about dips and peaks in Nino 3.4 in February if they want. Hopefully he didn’t downplay record cold in Canada and the Plains a couple weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Winter vibe at Pit2. Solid 4" cover along with high around 30 and strong winds off the river. Better than Westborough. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 1 minute ago, NotSureWeather said: Can you please stop posting these maps that are including a two week run? It’s a bit misleading for someone not checking the dates. Anheuser enjoyer and moonshine productions love that. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Anheuser enjoyer and moonshine productions love that. I’m thinking they may be the same person? Kinda odd to have two people so similar in posting style to just randomly pop up and start mass posting 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 7 minutes ago, NotSureWeather said: Can you please stop posting these maps that are including a two week run? It’s a bit misleading for someone not checking the dates. Yeah these are getting a bit ridiculous for the lead time. We really don’t need to see how much qpf an 18z run spit out for events that are 2 weeks away 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 1 hour ago, mreaves said: It depends on the sled you ride and the trail conditions. Modern sleds have great suspensions and rider position. It makes rides like the one @dryslotdid pretty comfortable. It also depends on trail conditions though. If you really bumpy conditions, comfort can be severely reduced. Two hours in I was stiffening up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 2 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: Two hours in I was stiffening up This is what you need. My nephew's new sled. 180 horsepower. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AstronomyEnjoyer Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 6 minutes ago, NotSureWeather said: Can you please stop posting these maps that are including a two week run? It’s a bit misleading for someone not checking the dates. Right now the GFS is really the only operational model that goes out long enough to show much of anything very interesting. But I understand and I'll stop, or at least add a warning label or something if I post something similar again. Here comes my "but" bit though - "misleading for someone not checking the dates" I don't think I've ever seen a caveat carry so much weight. That thing is straining my friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AstronomyEnjoyer Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 8 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: I’m thinking they may be the same person? Kinda odd to have two people so similar in posting style to just randomly pop up and start mass posting Nah, not the same person. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 3 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said: Nah, not the same person. Impressive, family? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AstronomyEnjoyer Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said: Impressive, family? Not to my knowledge. I think it's just coincidental that we started posting (in I guess) a similar manner at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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