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It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread


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1 hour ago, SouthCoastMA said:

I wish I measured correctly for 1/22/05 though it was pretty difficult. Had between 26-28" depth the next day

That's a monster storm. I think you could say you had 30 inches and be very realistic. How did you do in the clipper a few days later and did your overall depth increase?

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2 hours ago, dryslot said:

100 miles this morning, Got close to Pittsburg NH 

IMG_3973.jpeg

IMG_4129.jpeg

Does that kind of mileage beat you up at all is it totally gear dependent?  A ride like that sounds awesome to me and the pics you guys post look great.  It's something I'd really like to try with the family sometime, although I imagine a rental/guide service won't be doing tons of miles over a few short hours.  

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8 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I mentioned this earlier but we are seeing a very rapid strengthening and warming of this El Niño over the last 7 days (WWB/-SOI related). Region 3.4 is over +1.9C and fast approaching +2C, region 3 almost at +2C. None of the models predicted this and it is extremely unusual to see a Nino event strengthening in February. IMO this is going to be a big unexpected factor in the global long wave pattern and PAC jet going forward
ssta_graph_nino34.png

@Coastalwx @ORH_wxman @Mitchnick @JBenedet @Typhoon Tip

So it’s strong? That’s what that data says.

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7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

So it’s strong? That’s what that data says.

It’s snowman19’s passive-aggressive way of trying to downplay any potential in the pattern for mid-February and beyond. Ray sniffed out his M.O. pretty well. 
 

I’ll personally be watching shortwaves dive out of Canada and anything southern stream…others can worry about dips and peaks in Nino 3.4 in February if they want. 

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4 hours ago, ChangeofSeasonsWX said:

I still find it hard to believe that PVD got 7.0" on May 9-10, 1977. I can't even imagine what that much snow would look like with fully leafed green trees. Not even October 2011 produced even close to that much snow around here. I wonder what the return period is for May 1977. Probably like a 500 year event.

What's really strange is that PVD's 7" was more than 5 times the 1.3" at BDL.

I think there was a major controversy at BWI for that storm. They were clearing every hour or something like that. Same thing happened at BOS too…BOS real total was prob more like 23” instead of the “record” 27.6”. 

Yea, 1978 is still king...those were all total depth measurements, too.

Both storms started with 3" depth at Boston.  1978 raised the pack to 29" while PDII brought it only to 19".   'Nuf said.

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Definitely a suppression risk to me on gefs and eps today.   A little less nao would not be bad imho.
Compare the GEFS and EPS to the monthly H5 composite anomaly for Feb 2010 and I think I'd be less worried right now about suppression depression, though interested in other's thoughts on that.

The GEFS has a slightly farther south mean position of the NAO block (still not like the strong southwest based block in Feb 2010) but less of a +PNA eventually so maybe the farther south block would be a net benefit there.

EPS has a more favorable +PNA pattern and mean blocking position is farther north with negative height anomalies over most of Hudson Bay.

I think the pattern looks at least semi interesting out here in the Chicago area, probably especially on the GEFS, so would continue to feel cautiously optimistic for the parts of New England and northern Mid Atlantic that have been shafted thus far.

The position and strength of the NAO block is certainly something to watch moving forward regarding an event increased suppression risk though.


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25 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Compare the GEFS and EPS to the monthly H5 composite anomaly for Feb 2010 and I think I'd be less worried right now about suppression depression, though interested in other's thoughts on that.

The GEFS has a slightly farther south mean position of the NAO block (still not like the strong southwest based block in Feb 2010) but less of a +PNA eventually so maybe the farther south block would be a net benefit there.

EPS has a more favorable +PNA pattern and mean blocking position is farther north with negative height anomalies over most of Hudson Bay.

I think the pattern looks at least semi interesting out here in the Chicago area, probably especially on the GEFS, so would continue to feel cautiously optimistic for the parts of New England and northern Mid Atlantic that have been shafted thus far.

The position and strength of the NAO block is certainly something to watch moving forward regarding an event increased suppression risk though.

 

It was something I mentioned ( in snark) a couple hours ago because I noticed the 00Z GEPs mean getting aggressive with this look ...

image.png.0bead479212cf20e8aa42c613f7ecca4.png

Having said that ...it's really kind of silly to angst. That chart is 360+ hours ...

The 12z seemed to ease off slightly, and the EPS and GEFs were not as excessive anyway.  

The other thing is .. when has any time range beyond 240 hours ever been a lock on an NAO mode?   

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1 hour ago, Layman said:

Does that kind of mileage beat you up at all is it totally gear dependent?  A ride like that sounds awesome to me and the pics you guys post look great.  It's something I'd really like to try with the family sometime, although I imagine a rental/guide service won't be doing tons of miles over a few short hours.  

It depends on the sled you ride and the trail conditions. Modern sleds have great suspensions and rider position. It makes rides like the one @dryslotdid pretty comfortable. It also depends on trail conditions though. If you really bumpy conditions, comfort can be severely reduced. 

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7 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

image.thumb.png.d06ce35a2fdf3e26188869d3de7fc5cf.png

That system is an uphill battle imho. It’s prior to advecting in a decent airmass so it’s gonna have to thread the needle (surprise!)…guidance currently progressively gets more favorable beyond that timeframe. 

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1 hour ago, tamarack said:

What's really strange is that PVD's 7" was more than 5 times the 1.3" at BDL.

I think there was a major controversy at BWI for that storm. They were clearing every hour or something like that. Same thing happened at BOS too…BOS real total was prob more like 23” instead of the “record” 27.6”. 

Yea, 1978 is still king...those were all total depth measurements, too.

Both storms started with 3" depth at Boston.  1978 raised the pack to 29" while PDII brought it only to 19".   'Nuf said.

Yep BDL picked up 1.3", HFD 1.3", and BOS 0.5", which is very strange. ORH got 12.7" which is obviously still crazy for May, but 7.0" in PVD is even more remarkable considering its coastal location. I wonder what dynamics were in play with that storm to cause an ORH-PVD zone jackpot?

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s snowman19’s passive-aggressive way of trying to downplay any potential in the pattern for mid-February and beyond. Ray sniffed out his M.O. pretty well. 
 

I’ll personally be watching shortwaves dive out of Canada and anything southern stream…others can worry about dips and peaks in Nino 3.4 in February if they want. 

Hopefully he didn’t downplay record cold in Canada and the Plains a couple weeks ago. 

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7 minutes ago, NotSureWeather said:

Can you please stop posting these maps that are including a two week run? It’s a bit misleading for someone not checking the dates.

Yeah these are getting a bit ridiculous for the lead time. We really don’t need to see how much qpf an 18z run spit out for events that are 2 weeks away

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1 hour ago, mreaves said:

It depends on the sled you ride and the trail conditions. Modern sleds have great suspensions and rider position. It makes rides like the one @dryslotdid pretty comfortable. It also depends on trail conditions though. If you really bumpy conditions, comfort can be severely reduced. 

Two hours in I was stiffening up

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6 minutes ago, NotSureWeather said:

Can you please stop posting these maps that are including a two week run? It’s a bit misleading for someone not checking the dates.

Right now the GFS is really the only operational model that goes out long enough to show much of anything very interesting. But I understand and I'll stop, or at least add a warning label or something if I post something similar again. Here comes my "but" bit though - "misleading for someone not checking the dates"  I don't think I've ever seen a caveat carry so much weight. That thing is straining my friend.

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