AstronomyEnjoyer Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Elon Musk ? Nope, Limmy! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Let’s get PD III 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Looks more like late November than early February. And this is before the warmup this week in the northeast which will push the pack line back to Winne. Wouldn’t use early feb climo with snow pack and SST’s up here… Better use a significant + surface temp bias in SNE or risk getting burned. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: I mentioned this earlier but we are seeing a very rapid strengthening and warming of this El Niño over the last 7 days (WWB/-SOI related). Region 3.4 is over +1.9C and fast approaching +2C, region 3 almost at +2C. None of the models predicted this and it is extremely unusual to see a Nino event strengthening in February. IMO this is going to be a big unexpected factor in the global long wave pattern and PAC jet going forward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AstronomyEnjoyer Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 3 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Looks more like late November than early February. And this is before the warmup this week in the northeast which will push the pack line back to Winne. Wouldn’t use early feb climo with snow pack and SST’s up here… Better use a significant + surface temp bias in SNE or risk getting burned. Late November? Man, I've been missing out on some wild Novembers up here then. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Let’s get PD III Ray’s favorite storm. Id take it though. Over 20” in ORH and that extended right down into the 495 belt here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 The modeled synoptics are acting like it is late March during the next week. Very spring like ... The 850 mb handling with that attempt at wet snow in the operational 06z GFS in a week is perfect example of what typically happens in spring. We could be 60 F, but since DPs are low and the hydrostats not particularly warm ... as soon as the sun disappears behind overrunning cloud density and saturation commences, temps crash and it's wet snow ...even if cat paws and bouncing pellets..etc... April 1 1997 ... it was 66 F at 1pm at UML's weather station. Two days later ... 18" of blue glory with 30" in Sudbury. That sort whiplash happens in spring, in our climate. Nape balm days --> snow... I've actually seen 50 F sleet pellets bouncing off car tops before, because the air was so dry that when a warm front first approached and spread light rain fall, it dumps it into hygroscopic well - the particulates thermally shock by latent heat of evaporation. It can actually be geek-fascinating, too. I recall an April day back in the late 1990s when it was 48F with light rain and IP bouncing, and while that was happening ... the sky was brightening from the SW. The precip end/moved away and sharp clearing line move in, and for 3 hours unabated solar blaze sent it to 65 F... Anyway... cheer on the spring preview. It'll be slow through Tuesday morning but as soon as this west Atl/Maritime trough breaks down, we dry air nape balm about 40 days ahead of climo 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Let’s get PD III Cosgrove already alerting the masses for PD3 .. but seriously things do look very favorable for something big in that time period… lets hope it’s a uniform snowfall for all . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Cosgrove already alerting the masses for PD3 .. but seriously things do look very favorable for something big in that time period… lets hope it’s a uniform snowfall for all . I missed PDII because I was sledding in N. Maine that long weekend. I’ll be up there again this president's weekend it looks too…so I’ll miss whatever happens that weekend as well lol. Can I order it on the 14-15th…or maybe on the 20th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 32 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: I actually think this has legs - it's inCREdibly highly correlated right now in the numerical telecon projections, and the bulk ens layouts, en masse, make it almost physically impossible for just about anything to NOT happen when using the method/approach, too. Something's gonna take place. Could be a procession of events. Could be one or two more significant scenarios. I suspect that hyper bomb thing in the prior run would have trouble being an impact here ( more so up the coast toward the lower Maritime, sure -), because well prior to the pieces of that coming together ... heights over Florida and adjacency are too high ... the geostrophic basal wind velocities humming along > 50 kts ...That means the flows already compressed and that doesn't favor the meridian position of a deepening trough - that's why the model simultaneously closes off a multi-contoured 500 mb surface while moving it off to the NE so quickly.. .Usually, that kind of deepening in the mid troposphere slows down - in this sense ... it can't do that. This is what doomed the M/A forecast for the March 2001 "super massive black hole quasar extra double top secret hyper bomb" ... The models waited until the most possible Met careers were on the line to then correct for that compression/velocity in the flow and foisted the total scaffolding to higher latitudes. Anyway, the 06z is a better solution for the above predicament ... **BUT** ... this is speaking relative to this recent series of run particulars. These aspects could certainly modulate. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I missed PDII because I was sledding in N. Maine that long weekend. I’ll be up there again this president's weekend it looks too…so I’ll miss whatever happens that weekend as well lol. Can I order it on the 14-15th…or maybe on the 20th? I was in NJ actually and missed it here. We had more snow here compared to NJ. Came home and exited the car with no pants on. Was definitely an OE component here too. BOX radar unfortunately was down. I remember trying to use WCVB’s radar to see what was happening at home but it sucked. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 19 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I missed PDII because I was sledding in N. Maine that long weekend. I’ll be up there again this president's weekend it looks too…so I’ll miss whatever happens that weekend as well lol. Can I order it on the 14-15th…or maybe on the 20th? PD 1 was the greatest snowstorm of my childhood in Dover DE. 25” with 5” an hour rates. It followed 16” in the ‘78 storm and I was hooked! But it set the expectations high. PD2 in center city Philly. 18” and a lot sleet at the end. Great storm but a lot of sand and small flakes. im all in for PD 3. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I was in NJ actually and missed it here. We had more snow here compared to NJ. Came home and exited the car with no pants on. Was definitely an OE component here too. BOX radar unfortunately was down. I remember trying to use WCVB’s radar to see what was happening at home but it sucked. I remember this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: PD 1 was the greatest snowstorm of my childhood in Dover DE. 25” with 5” an hour rates. It followed 16” in the ‘78 storm and I was hooked! But it set the expectations high. PD2 in center city Philly. 18” and a lot sleet at the end. Great storm but a lot of sand and small flakes. im all in for PD 3. PDI was great at BWI too. Woke up at 3am to 2-3"/hr. Ended with 18-19". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: PDI was great at BWI too. Woke up at 3am to 2-3"/hr. Ended with 18-19". You and across to Delaware got that early morn heavy wwa but we caught up in the afternoon. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 18 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: You and across to Delaware got that early morn heavy wwa but we caught up in the afternoon. Do you mean WAA? Warm air advection? WWA would mean winter weather advisory… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 39 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I was in NJ actually and missed it here. We had more snow here compared to NJ. Came home and exited the car with no pants on. Was definitely an OE component here too. BOX radar unfortunately was down. I remember trying to use WCVB’s radar to see what was happening at home but it sucked. Lol so we both missed it(PDII). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 17 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Lol so we both missed it(PDII). Neither of the PDs produced a single flake where I was living at the time - suppression city. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 I had 26” for PD2-hard to top. I was still south of 60 and shoveled vigorously and happily. I walked up to Coolidge Corner in the last hours of heavy snow and it was deep deep snow in the air and ground. I loved that winter and that storm. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Solid support group dynamic going this morning LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 23 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Lol so we both missed it(PDII). Came home just as it ended. Was at my G-friends at the time in Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Had 28 inches, Epic overrunning storm that started early and just went. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 56 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I actually think this has legs - it's inCREdibly highly correlated right now in the numerical telecon projections, and the bulk ens layouts, en masse, make it almost physically impossible for just about anything to NOT happen when using the method/approach, too. Something's gonna take place. Could be a procession of events. Could be one or two more significant scenarios. I suspect that hyper bomb thing in the prior run would have trouble being an impact here ( more so up the coast toward the lower Maritime, sure -), because well prior to the pieces of that coming together ... heights over Florida and adjacency are too high ... the geostrophic basal wind velocities humming along > 50 kts ...That means the flows already compressed and that doesn't favor the meridian position of a deepening trough - that's why the model simultaneously closes off a multi-contoured 500 mb surface while moving it off to the NE so quickly.. .Usually, that kind of deepening in the mid troposphere slows down - in this sense ... it can't do that. This is what doomed the M/A forecast for the March 2001 "super massive black hole quasar extra double top secret hyper bomb" ... The models waited until the most possible Met careers were on the line to then correct for that compression/velocity in the flow and foisted the total scaffolding to higher latitudes. Anyway, the 06z is a better solution for the above predicament ... **BUT** ... this is speaking relative to this recent series of run particulars. These aspects could certainly modulate. We have seen bombs modeled far out on operational runs come to fruition for sure. Sandy was way out. I’d say 1/2 of the gfs operationals have had some sort of coastal for like 4 days now, and a storm of some variation on the others. Its like the operational has to reflect something distant early warning with red lights flashing, sirens wailing pattern developing across model suites. If it didn’t then its like WTF everywhere. If we are tracking a bomb for 15 days on op runs, thats a thriller to me, and we may be doing just that. Or not - but we’ll be 10 days op Euro today ish so lets’s see if we get a signal. I don’t have the Euro out to 10 myself. Lets hope its not another mirage this time and we can ride this baby in to the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Came home just as it ended. Was at my G-friends at the time in Jersey. 6hr ride home? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 20 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Solid support group dynamic going this morning LOL 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 some flurries this AM. maybe a few more OE snow showers Tuesday/Wednesday. hasn't really amounted to much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: PDI was great at BWI too. Woke up at 3am to 2-3"/hr. Ended with 18-19". I thought BWI had like 30"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChangeofSeasonsWX Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 I still find it hard to believe that PVD got 7.0" on May 9-10, 1977. I can't even imagine what that much snow would look like with fully leafed green trees. Not even October 2011 produced even close to that much snow around here. I wonder what the return period is for May 1977. Probably like a 500 year event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted February 3 Author Share Posted February 3 12z GFS dropped Valantines Day and pushed it back to the 17thSent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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