It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread

[40/70 Benchmark]

31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Previous runs of EPS and GEFS had the wave dying in phase 6, now they both bring it into phase 8....been a theme all winter in the models trying to push it into the COD.

This was one of my main points in my last long range update...that said, if it were to stall, I would expect it to be in phase 6 per El Nino orientation.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

https://x.com/ericfisher/status/1742283208467611750?s=46&t=m4Eqkekadb-JCXTm7k-Txg

Yea, gotta agree with you here. Its the smart play and there is value in being right....that said, I would still aim to provide metoeorological rationale that extends beyond the background signal of the multidecadal warming trend.

[CoastalWx]

That big ridge sort of turns into a Hudson Bay type block on guidance with good Scooter high signal. Yes it's not cold...but that isn't a torch signal except maybe overnight mins. Then it appears -EPO/+PNA sets up.

 

I sure hope so. 

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

That big ridge sort of turns into a Hudson Bay type block on guidance with good Scooter high signal. Yes it's not cold...but that isn't a torch signal except maybe overnight mins. Then it appears -EPO/+PNA sets up.

 

I sure hope so. 

Definitely support this morning for mjo help around mid month. We pray 

[mahk_webstah]

I think we are going to get an extended stretch of decent winter. Just not sure when it begins but hoping for February 5 or sixth for a month.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

44 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That big ridge sort of turns into a Hudson Bay type block on guidance with good Scooter high signal. Yes it's not cold...but that isn't a torch signal except maybe overnight mins. Then it appears -EPO/+PNA sets up.

 

I sure hope so. 

From your lips to Rays mitts. We have a-lot riding on a 30day window. 

[brooklynwx99]

40 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Definitely support this morning for mjo help around mid month. We pray 

it’s fine if the MJO craps out and the wave dies. then you just get typical Nino forcing and a strong Aleutian low. the MJO isn’t the only thing that forces patterns 

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

it’s fine if the MJO craps out and the wave dies. then you just get typical Nino forcing and a strong Aleutian low. the MJO isn’t the only thing that forces patterns 

MJO being super active has def hurt this winter.

[40/70 Benchmark]

51 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That big ridge sort of turns into a Hudson Bay type block on guidance with good Scooter high signal. Yes it's not cold...but that isn't a torch signal except maybe overnight mins. Then it appears -EPO/+PNA sets up.

 

I sure hope so. 

This is what I was unclear on....I was looking for a way to distinguish on wxbell, but couldn't find it.

[Allsnow]

9 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

it’s fine if the MJO craps out and the wave dies. then you just get typical Nino forcing and a strong Aleutian low. the MJO isn’t the only thing that forces patterns 

I don’t think it will crap out…

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

MJO being super active has def hurt this winter.

Probably tied into the W PAC warmth.....I would guess that there is a correlaion.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

I don’t think it will crap out…

 

 

Me neither.

[brooklynwx99]

16 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I don’t think it will crap out…

 

 

i don't think it will either, I just think that if it does, it would be a good thing rather than a bad thing. it likely continues progressing into either the western Pacific or the Indian Ocean

[Go Kart Mozart]

Meanwhile, that digger around the 2nd is interesting.  Does seem to be some potential there with a feature diving from Manitoba to the Delmarva.

[mahk_webstah]

17 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Meanwhile, that digger around the 2nd is interesting.  Does seem to be some potential there with a feature diving from Manitoba to the Delmarva.

Wasn’t this the time we were supposed to be starting a torch? Least I thought that was the trend yesterday

[40/70 Benchmark]

40 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Meanwhile, that digger around the 2nd is interesting.  Does seem to be some potential there with a feature diving from Manitoba to the Delmarva.

We Manitoba Maul.

[Spanks45]

1 hour ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Meanwhile, that digger around the 2nd is interesting.  Does seem to be some potential there with a feature diving from Manitoba to the Delmarva.

Looks like the Euro has it too....

[CoastalWx]

Euro with the nrn stream of yore.

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro with the nrn stream of yore.

Ran from your basement....south shore shlong again on the CCB of that little clipper-redeveloper.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ran from your basement....south shore shlong again on the CCB of that little clipper-redeveloper.

GFS has something too at that time. Boy that would be nice.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GFS has something too at that time. Boy that would be nice.

This is the type of pattern where being in a potent El Nino might actually help...we don't have that saturated geopotential medium with a trampoline to our south....so we can dig for oil on the east side of that central CONUS trough.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

This is the type of pattern where being in a potent El Nino might actually help...we don't have that saturated geopotential medium with a trampoline to our south....so we can dig for oil on the east side of that central CONUS trough.

LOL trampoline. Good point.

[Typhoon Tip]

4 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

it’s fine if the MJO craps out and the wave dies. then you just get typical Nino forcing and a strong Aleutian low. the MJO isn’t the only thing that forces patterns 

The MJO doesn't force patterns.  It offers a constructive interference factorization - which also by that convention goes the other way.  But the planetary wave signal is vastly dominant. 

I've seen respective MJO wave ...even robust ones, not demo/fail correlation on the pattern over N/A often enough.  MJO writers down in NCEP often refer to it as either in constructive or destructive interference with x-y-z aspects going on during the forecast periods in question. 

just sayn'

[Typhoon Tip]

Lol, the MJO desk is currently suggesting warmer than normal spreading over central and eastern U.S. during early February ... with a potential river event into the west coast.  SO basically a -PNA on steroids.

That's the correlation of the MJO - they're not predicting that.   I'm curious to see how that evolves because the telecon projections suggest differently for N/A

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The MJO doesn't force patterns.  It offers a constructive interference factorization - which also by that convention goes the other way.  But the planetary wave signal is vastly dominant. 

I've seen respective MJO wave ...even robust ones, not demo/fail correlation on the pattern over N/A often enough.  MJO writers down in NCEP often refer to it as either in constructive or destructive interference with x-y-z aspects going on during the forecast periods in question. 

just sayn'

There's been times this season where I don't know WTF is driving the pattern lol. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Lol, the MJO desk is currently suggesting a warmer than normal spreading over central and eastern U.S. during early February ... with a potential river event into the west coast.  SO basically a -PNA on steroids.

That's the correlation of the MJO - they're not predicting that.   I'm curious to see how that evolves because the telecon projections suggest differently for N/A

It does look like a trough to move in at that time. But on it's heels, will be a -EPO ridge building into AK. All the while the ridging east of the -PNA trough tries to morph into a Hudson Bay block. 

[Typhoon Tip]

The CFS "toy" model has a very cold look with cyclic S/stream injects through early to mid February. 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

It does look like a trough to move in at that time. But on it's heels, will be a -EPO ridge building into AK. All the while the ridging east of the -PNA trough tries to morph into a Hudson Bay block. 

I know - it's like every index is negative and positive at the same time. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Lol, the MJO desk is currently suggesting a warmer than normal spreading over central and eastern U.S. during early February ... with a potential river event into the west coast.  SO basically a -PNA on steroids.

That's the correlation of the MJO - they're not predicting that.   I'm curious to see how that evolves because the telecon projections suggest differently for N/A

The EPS has been evolving into a psuedo Hudson Bay block....it's still a solidly AN pattern for us, but perhaps not the spring fever preview where we get 60s. We stay on the east side which keeps us colder and it never really gets far enough east to give us the return flow...perhaps cold enough for continued winter threats (ala the Euro and GFS on 2/1-2/2 which are already appearing today)

 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The EPS has been evolving into a psuedo Hudson Bay block....it's still a solidly AN pattern for us, but perhaps not the spring fever preview where we get 60s. We stay on the east side which keeps us colder and it never really gets far enough east to give us the return flow...perhaps cold enough for continued winter threats (ala the Euro and GFS on 2/1-2/2 which are already appearing today)

 

That sort of look evolved last month I recall... We were gawking at the blocking indicated - and equally as astonished when it sort of failed to produce.   Although we did get the 10-14"er out of that period ...even tough it was pullin' teeth to get the models to admit it was happening until the RGEM schooled the Euro   ( zoink)