qg_omega Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: What’s interesting on the 12z GEFS (and EPS was showing this as well) is that the western ridge is amplifying the entire time once it starts around D10-11. So that means you could have any number of shortwaves during this period be prone to big cyclogenesis….that’s a constructive interference look there rather than a de-amplifying ridge providing destructive interference. I really don’t trust any of the ensembles past 10 days so I really have no expectations here until we get much closer. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 1 minute ago, qg_omega said: I really don’t trust any of the ensembles past 10 days so I really have no expectations here until we get much closer. Couldn’t you find the least one that was warm at least, or at somehow connected to Southeast Atlantic Ridge to the Nao Ridge? come on man… 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 5 minutes ago, qg_omega said: I really don’t trust any of the ensembles past 10 days so I really have no expectations here until we get much closer. It’s a fair criticism. I don’t trust them either until inside of D10. But at least they aren’t can-kicking and there’s pretty strong signals on them. If they continue to look good by Sunday/Monday, then I’d feel a lot more optimistic. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 Euro restructuring it's late mid/ext range ... looks a lot more GFS oriented with important S/W space into the OV by D9... Obviously there's limited deterministic value in it... but, seeing as these solutions align with correlations on the pattern projections it's enough to at least mention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Euro restructuring it's late mid/ext range ... looks a lot more GFS oriented with important S/W space into the OV by D9... Obviously there's limited deterministic value in it... but, seeing as these solutions align with correlations on the pattern projections it's enough to at least mention. Honestly I’ve been figuring that we won’t go more than two weeks between precipitation so if I had to bet, I would say something comes in sooner than Valentine’s Day. even if it is a cutter or SWFE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 1 hour ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said: When I think climate engineering I'm thinking reactive measures vice preemptive measures, so stuff like switching to renewables (though hugely important) wouldn't fall under that definition, while something like carbon capture would. And while I know there are several companies, research institutes, think tanks, universities, whatever, engaged in coming up with ways to either mitigate solar radiation or remove carbon from the atmosphere, you are correct in pointing out that they aren't at scale because they aren't profitable. The mantra I used to hear from climatologists is that money and intellectual effort is better spent not on figuring out ways to pull carbon from the atmosphere, but on how we ensure it's left underground in the first place. A crude example might be as follows: A company develops some sort of carbon capture infrastructure that requires power. Given that this is a green energy project, the company ensures that their device is run off locally installed solar panels. Under that aforementioned mantra, it would be better just to take the power from those solar panels and plug it into the grid - bypass the silly hardware. By doing so you've prevented more carbon from leaving the Earth's crust than you could've ever captured from the air. Crude example but that's the gist of it. To Tip's point, and like you've highlighted, we're already there. If we had a magic button that switched all of our energy needs away from fossil fuels we would still have more carbon in the atmosphere than desired. And so now we have to look at those climate engineering projects and begin to envision them at grand scales. And that's when the clown show starts because some of the options on the table are pretty drastic, zany, and downright absurd. Anyway let's bomb Krakatoa! I think Spaceballs had the answer all along. Something to suck out all the bad stuff. Just need to figure out how to leave the good stuff. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 This may be unpopular but….. I don’t think omegas posts have been unreasonable at all these past 2 winters. Is he biased? Yeah, but he is far from the only one. I also completely agree with the Pope that the pattern thus far has been consistent with a significant El Niño event. Raging STJ, warm and wet. That has been the theme of this winter, and it looks like it’s going to continue until mid month. What happens then is still up in the air. The reality is it HAS been warm, and it hasn’t been very snowy. If he’s posting 300+ hour torch maps during a blizzard….. then that’s different. Maybe the pattern does change, but when I think pattern change I’m going by great snow’s definition (a change to cold that locks in for 3+ weeks). 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 Stratosphere is getting interesting on guidance too. Some support showing up for another big SSW like last year in Mid-Feb (this helped set the stage for the first couple weeks of March last year where he had several threats including the interior elevation bomb on Mar 13-14. ) The difference this year is that if we get another SSW like last year, we won’t be fighting nearly as hostile as a Pacific and the AO already looks to be negative. So it just may lock things in place longer which is what you’d hope for if you want more than a short period of favorability. We’ll know a lot more about the SSW chances in the next 5-7 days. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It’s a fair criticism. I don’t trust them either until inside of D10. But at least they aren’t can-kicking and there’s pretty strong signals on them. If they continue to look good by Sunday/Monday, then I’d feel a lot more optimistic. The redeeming factor in my eyes is strong and super nino climatology. There is historical precedence for big snows in Feb, even in warmer winters (wasn’t there one in 82-83?). Maybe the thing that screwed us in Dec in Jan can help a bit in late Feb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 6 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Nobody got more than 18” really but yeah that was a good one. Mix line got to about 5 miles from my house and stayed away. I think I had like 14 and change. Miss this. Feb 9th 2015 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvn139 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 1 hour ago, weathafella said: I love Quebec City! We were there in high summer 2017 and I was thinking-this is great-Paris without jet lag! My winter jones isn’t what it used to be but I think it would be quite wonderful there mid winter. Was there last year in the winter for peewee quebec (kids hockey). It's a great city. I've spent time in Prague and it reminds me a bit of that city. The architecture and food are amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Miss this. Feb 9th 2015 What a winter that was, truly a once in a lifetime type of winter. Had a great pattern just lock in from mid Jan on, and everything that could go right did. The luck factor cannot be understated here, I remember reading something that mentioned the probability of Boston having 90 inches in 3 weeks like the late Jan to mid Feb stretch is 1 in 20000 or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 I'm not pessimistic. I feel Presidents Day 3 coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 26 minutes ago, George001 said: This may be unpopular but….. I don’t think omegas posts have been unreasonable at all these past 2 winters. Is he biased? Yeah, but he is far from the only one. I also completely agree with the Pope that the pattern thus far has been consistent with a significant El Niño event. Raging STJ, warm and wet. That has been the theme of this winter, and it looks like it’s going to continue until mid month. What happens then is still up in the air. The reality is it HAS been warm, and it hasn’t been very snowy. If he’s posting 300+ hour torch maps during a blizzard….. then that’s different. Maybe the pattern does change, but when I think pattern change I’m going by great snow’s definition (a change to cold that locks in for 3+ weeks). I had 28.5" of snow in January. the temps meant NOTHING with regards to snowfall (massive cutters aside). sorry you got shafted though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 27 minutes ago, George001 said: This may be unpopular but….. I don’t think omegas posts have been unreasonable at all these past 2 winters. Is he biased? Yeah, but he is far from the only one. I also completely agree with the Pope that the pattern thus far has been consistent with a significant El Niño event. Raging STJ, warm and wet. That has been the theme of this winter, and it looks like it’s going to continue until mid month. What happens then is still up in the air. The reality is it HAS been warm, and it hasn’t been very snowy. If he’s posting 300+ hour torch maps during a blizzard….. then that’s different. Maybe the pattern does change, but when I think pattern change I’m going by great snow’s definition (a change to cold that locks in for 3+ weeks). I am sad to hear this. I was hoping you might challenge him to a duel. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 24 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Miss this. Feb 9th 2015 My only one gripe that winter was 3/5/15. The Bruce Willis storm. Got porked in that..I know it got you to TAN good though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 EPS coming inside of d10 now. It’s coming! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 28 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Stratosphere is getting interesting on guidance too. Some support showing up for another big SSW like last year in Mid-Feb (this helped set the stage for the first couple weeks of March last year where he had several threats including the interior elevation bomb on Mar 13-14. ) The difference this year is that if we get another SSW like last year, we won’t be fighting nearly as hostile as a Pacific and the AO already looks to be negative. So it just may lock things in place longer which is what you’d hope for if you want more than a short period of favorability. We’ll know a lot more about the SSW chances in the next 5-7 days. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if we swing back to some real and even severe winter for several weeks. I know Ray wants to cut it off soon, but we are living in a time of extreme. It seems and I kind of expect us to get the cold snowy side that at some point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 18 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: I wouldn’t be at all surprised if we swing back to some real and even severe winter for several weeks. I know Ray wants to cut it off soon, but we are living in a time of extreme. It seems and I kind of expect us to get the cold snowy side that at some point. What Ray wants, and what may actually happen are obviously two entirely different things. Lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 Novtember, Dectober, Morchuary, and now Februnary. Still have a solid cover of snow from the sneet we got on Sunday night, though. 40F (high 41F low 32F). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 52 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Stratosphere is getting interesting on guidance too. Some support showing up for another big SSW like last year in Mid-Feb (this helped set the stage for the first couple weeks of March last year where he had several threats including the interior elevation bomb on Mar 13-14. ) The difference this year is that if we get another SSW like last year, we won’t be fighting nearly as hostile as a Pacific and the AO already looks to be negative. So it just may lock things in place longer which is what you’d hope for if you want more than a short period of favorability. We’ll know a lot more about the SSW chances in the next 5-7 days. Let's have some snow cover for the eclipse and watch temps tank. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 Snowing up here in Lincoln 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 3 hours ago, kdxken said: Is Berry's the kinda run down store that overlooks the road and the river? Yes, Got gas there, It’s an old store, Lot around here that’ are throwbacks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: What Ray wants, and what may actually happen are obviously two entirely different things. Lol. That isn't what I want.... you can't win on this board. Call for cold/snow, then you're a biased weenie...call for anyting else, and you hate winter. Hopefully I am wrong about March...another huge SSW would help if it doesn't send the cold to Shohei Ohtani's hood. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 8 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Let's have some snow cover for the eclipse and watch temps tank. Looking forward to weenie posts about whether that’s been adequately factored into modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Stratosphere is getting interesting on guidance too. Some support showing up for another big SSW like last year in Mid-Feb (this helped set the stage for the first couple weeks of March last year where he had several threats including the interior elevation bomb on Mar 13-14. ) The difference this year is that if we get another SSW like last year, we won’t be fighting nearly as hostile as a Pacific and the AO already looks to be negative. So it just may lock things in place longer which is what you’d hope for if you want more than a short period of favorability. We’ll know a lot more about the SSW chances in the next 5-7 days. 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Miss this. Feb 9th 2015 Between these two posts I am....A-roused. 39.8F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AstronomyEnjoyer Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 Went to get lunch at the Flying Goose and on the way back home passed the entrance to the land of wealth. Looked like the cloud deck was a little higher than last time so decided to drive up and check it out. Much better visibility this time, and is that Okemo I see poking out? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That isn't what I want.... you can't win on this board. Call for cold/snow, then you're a biased weenie...call for anyting else, and you hate winter. Hopefully I am wrong about March...another huge SSW would help if it doesn't send the cold to Shohei Ohtani's hood. Lol…I know what you’re saying. Your outlook says it’s over in March. Was just being funny about what Mahk said. It’s all good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Angus Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 Took me a while to figure out that was Sunapee. I stopped by Winnisquam yesterday on way home from WV and the north end of lake is not fully frozen - a stretch of a mile or two in the middle is but the wide part of the lake that Laconia abuts is wide open. I'm headed back west to ski in California, NM and Colorado on the 21st of the month and would be disappointed to have only a few days locally to xc ski beforehand. Hoping whatever this pattern brings helps southern CO and NM where I'm headed. Snowing today at both Taos and Wolf Creek. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 36 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That isn't what I want.... you can't win on this board. Call for cold/snow, then you're a biased weenie...call for anyting else, and you hate winter. Hopefully I am wrong about March...another huge SSW would help if it doesn't send the cold to Shohei Ohtani's hood. Someone is thinking of baseball already… Is that your #1 player on your board? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now