AstronomyEnjoyer Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 5 hours ago, Chrisrotary12 said: I mean aren’t we already doing that? Green hydrogen, carbon capture and underground storage, switching to renewables, etc. No none of them are at scale because no one wants to pay for them. Two problems exist: 1. Whole economies are dependent on fossil fuels. 2. The Paris Agreement was signed with the ambitious goal of 1.5C…. Well guess what… as Tip mentioned, the planet is basically telling us we’re already there. So while today’s solutions aren’t the extremes you are thinking of, large scale climate engineering is all happening, it’s just not happening fast enough. So I suppose in the end you Re correct, we’ll probably drop a nuke into Krakatoa. When I think climate engineering I'm thinking reactive measures vice preemptive measures, so stuff like switching to renewables (though hugely important) wouldn't fall under that definition, while something like carbon capture would. And while I know there are several companies, research institutes, think tanks, universities, whatever, engaged in coming up with ways to either mitigate solar radiation or remove carbon from the atmosphere, you are correct in pointing out that they aren't at scale because they aren't profitable. The mantra I used to hear from climatologists is that money and intellectual effort is better spent not on figuring out ways to pull carbon from the atmosphere, but on how we ensure it's left underground in the first place. A crude example might be as follows: A company develops some sort of carbon capture infrastructure that requires power. Given that this is a green energy project, the company ensures that their device is run off locally installed solar panels. Under that aforementioned mantra, it would be better just to take the power from those solar panels and plug it into the grid - bypass the silly hardware. By doing so you've prevented more carbon from leaving the Earth's crust than you could've ever captured from the air. Crude example but that's the gist of it. To Tip's point, and like you've highlighted, we're already there. If we had a magic button that switched all of our energy needs away from fossil fuels we would still have more carbon in the atmosphere than desired. And so now we have to look at those climate engineering projects and begin to envision them at grand scales. And that's when the clown show starts because some of the options on the table are pretty drastic, zany, and downright absurd. Anyway let's bomb Krakatoa! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 7 minutes ago, FXWX said: I would always rather play the odds with suppression than pattern dominated by strong southern stream... Hugger is the safest bet for me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: There is nothing that you can show me that will change my mind for about the next two weeks. well, yes, the next 10 days or so suck, no mincing that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 GFS continues to offer its primitive early guess/suggestion for the first round - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: well, yes, the next 10 days or so suck, no mincing that No, I mean there is nothing that I could see for the next two weeks to change my mind about March....ie I would need to see it at a shorter lead time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 15 minutes ago, FXWX said: I would always rather play the odds with suppression than pattern dominated by strong southern stream... Even with the major suppression in 2002-03 and the horror of 2009-10 here, I totally agree. One plus for this very mild winter is that it's been active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted February 2 Author Share Posted February 2 Greetings from Dallas!Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: No, I mean there is nothing that I could see for the next two weeks to change my mind about March....ie I would need to see it at a shorter lead time. ah. “for about,” not about. gotcha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 1 hour ago, qg_omega said: Exciting times 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 1 hour ago, Layman said: Is there a sub-forum here where these topics are discussed? I only see the tangential posts in these monthly threads and haven't sought out any wider discussions. I can imagine they devolve into the typical sh!tshow if they exist. I'd argue that ones faith in "how accredited science operates" is where the entirety of the thing has the potential to break down. Either sound science is being performed or it's not. Biased politics and/or the finances associated therein mix with science like oil and water. Science should be wholly objective. Can it be, or is it when the biases of politics and/or finances are interjected? It's supposed to be, but my USB ports have witnessed enough oddities in these realms (in a professional capacity) to throw up 404 errors regularly and prove without a doubt that "accredited science" is simply not in many really important instances. A single bias, error or purposeful change done decades ago that has perpetuated through to today can change the entire basis of one's belief. Now, clumsily attempting to tie that to February 2024 weather and stay on topic... It's often brought up in these threads how the 1980's had some rough winters. I remember it being COLD. I remember there being little snow. Some of us are old enough to remember how this tied nicely into the belief at the time that we were entering an ice age. Seems that data and belief was inaccurate. The younger folks here that didn't live through, or have no recollection of the winters of the 80's have a different perspective. Winters have presented as milder and that fits nicely with current belief that things are warming. Could this data and belief also be inaccurate? What does that mean for snow in February 2024? Hard to say, but many are still waiting with bated breath to see if a rodent see's his shadow to predict what's going to happen My un-scientific low-bar prediction: We will see at least one more plowable event of 4" or greater in my area before the season is over. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/forum/18-climate-change/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: ah. “for about,” not about. gotcha What does this mean…? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 Just now, WinterWolf said: What does this mean…? Go back and track the discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 3 hours ago, mahk_webstah said: I haven’t been there for like five years. When I was in Charlevoix, it hadn’t snowed for a month, but there were still 2 to 3 feet on the ground. There’s a Fairmont resort about two hours north east of Quebec city along the St. Lawrence seaway. It has a great casino actually and is a super resort and you can hire a guide to go out snowmobiling, there must be some great snowmobile trips that go from Maine in New Hampshire into Quebec. I would think. Every year on here I recommend that the weenies visit Quebec city. Not only is it snow filled and cold, it is also really charming and romantic with great food . If these weenies wanted to impress their wives and girlfriends and husbands, they would take a long weekend to Quebec city. Much better than Montreal. And if you have more time, you can take a ride out along the Saint Lawrence seaway Northeast out of Quebec. I love Quebec City! We were there in high summer 2017 and I was thinking-this is great-Paris without jet lag! My winter jones isn’t what it used to be but I think it would be quite wonderful there mid winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: I love Quebec City! We were there in high summer 2017 and I was thinking-this is great-Paris without jet lag! My winter jones isn’t what it used to be but I think it would be quite wonderful there mid winter. Would have loved to have checked it out in February 2008. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AstronomyEnjoyer Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 My word, the clouds are beginning to lift. The Southern flank of Sunapee is finally free! Went to Market Basket to pick up a facial lotion with SPF. Gonna need it for all this sun I'm anticipating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted February 2 Author Share Posted February 2 Just to make you all jealous:It is a relaxing 68° here and low humidity, it feels niceeeeeeeeSent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 4 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said: Just to make you all jealous: It is a relaxing 68° here and low humidity, it feels niceeeeeeee Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk enjoy the thunderstorms/heavy rain later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 https://x.com/ericfisher/status/1753462414152986635?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: https://x.com/ericfisher/status/1753462414152986635?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg When half the month won't see a drop...probably a good bet. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 18 minutes ago, weathafella said: I love Quebec City! We were there in high summer 2017 and I was thinking-this is great-Paris without jet lag! My winter jones isn’t what it used to be but I think it would be quite wonderful there mid winter. Exchange rate with a dollar I think it’s quite strong and the first two weeks of February are their winter carnival, which is spectacular Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: When half the month won't see a drop...probably a good bet. Yea, I am fine with the next two weeks being silent....cram it all into the final two weeks and even a below average QPF month will be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 1 hour ago, kdxken said: Is Berry's the kinda run down store that overlooks the road and the river? Top of Coburn is AMAZING. There's been a few years when there was so much snow there you couldn't get anywhere near the top 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, I am fine with the next two weeks being silent....cram it all into the final two weeks and even a below average QPF month will be fine. There's an under the radar irony though - not to give neg head neuroticism another narrative ... But, this first two weeks of February is really whence the interquartile density of the historic cyclone frequency scatter plot is situated in time. So, we bi-pass that period with static inactivity instead. Kind of funny 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 57 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said: Greetings from Dallas! Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk You're a week or so too early for the SB parade... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: There's an under the radar irony though - not to give neg head neuroticism another narrative ... But, this first two weeks of February is really whence the interquartile density of the historic cyclone frequency scatter plot is situated in time. So, we bi-pass that period with static inactivity instead. Kind of funny Yeah this is typically a massive bright spot on the historical calendar for major snowstorms…esp during El Niño. But we’re going to get zippo over the next 10 days. The irony too is the last week of February is a historical min so we’re going to have to break that trend if we want to play catch-up unless we land a monster in the Feb 13-20 range (entirely plausible). Yeah, there’s been exceptions like the 100 hour storm in late Feb 1969….but it’s surprisingly devoid of major storms considering mid February and early March are hotspots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 What’s interesting on the 12z GEFS (and EPS was showing this as well) is that the western ridge is amplifying the entire time once it starts around D10-11. So that means you could have any number of shortwaves during this period be prone to big cyclogenesis….that’s a constructive interference look there rather than a de-amplifying ridge providing destructive interference. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Go back and track the discussion. Lol..I was. I just was like I have no idea what that means. but whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: What’s interesting on the 12z GEFS (and EPS was showing this as well) is that the western ridge is amplifying the entire time once it starts around D10-11. So that means you could have any number of shortwaves during this period be prone to big cyclogenesis….that’s a constructive interference look there rather than a de-amplifying ridge providing destructive interference. this is why I was tellin folks not to ignore the 12th - it's still a longish shot, but the GFS is attempting to take a stab at a first pass in an increasingly favorable hemisphere with them 3 days there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: this is why I was tellin folks not to ignore the 12th - it's still a longish shot, but the GFS is attempting to take a stab at a first pass in an increasingly favorable hemisphere with them 3 days there Yeah I do like that it’s not a really fast “in and out” pulse…the longwave pattern is amplifying for most of that week in the middle of the month. It offers a nice background assistance to anything that wants to try and develop to our south. It’s the type of look where you might see a storm on guidance that you can track for over a week. Of course, it could also be the type of pattern where it can’t decide which shortwave to focus on and we end up with another shit sandwich. But I’m hopeful that spacing interference will be harder to achieve because the background PNA ridge is going to try and force the issue more than the baseline would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 59 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said: My word, the clouds are beginning to lift. The Southern flank of Sunapee is finally free! Went to Market Basket to pick up a facial lotion with SPF. Gonna need it for all this sun I'm anticipating. Watch out for the tree avalanches! My husband calls them travalanches 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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