It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread

[Layman]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

There is a third problem 

For any changes to actually take hold and gain stream  they have to be profitable and wide spread 

The majority of the worlds population that contributes to Carbon emissions already has food and shelter needs that are not met . I.E if you are a parent of a child you will do anything in your power that helps your kids survival , if you could feed and shelter your child in exchange for  pressing a button that releases a huge plume of co2 you would do it (if you are living in poverty) the alternatives to fossil fuels are more expensive and business sure won’t try to lower their profit margins for the “environment” . So with this being the case nobody in poverty living day to day and month to month has CC as a issue on their radar , especially when the fixes are more expensive and lower their ability to take care of their loved ones . This also goes for many poorer folks in G7 countries where their wealthier citizens have the privilege to “help” . If the current alternatives were forced on the world , I wonder if folks who have the privilege to do their part realize the poor (majority of globes population ) would have growing mortality from inflation and lack of ability to get around .

I know anything resembling a dissenting view is frowned upon and the topic is then deemed to be clogging up the thread, but when I read all these posts I can't help but ask is the data accurate?  Why is one person's data more accurate than another?  Most forums tend to become echo chambers for the topics they're focused on.  Discussions turn to debates that turn to fights with each group "taking sides" standing firm with an unwillingness to objectively look outside of their firmly held views.  

Is the data accurate?  Why has NOAA adjusted the temperature data?  Was the data they're adjusting more accurate?  How much impact do heat islands have?  How much impact does time of observation have?  How reliable is the global temperature data set?  

Assuming everything we know is unquestionably, 100% accurate - does it even matter?

Does 200 years of presumably accurate temperature data provide any meaningful understanding of the condition of a planet that's understood or believed to be many millions or billions of years old?  

Cloud seeding?  SO2 balloons?  These strike me as being akin to "blessing" someone who sneezed to prevent the demons from entering the body.  Sure, it has morphed into courteous pleasantry for some reason, but really?  Demons entering the body?  

Humans have believed and orchestrated some really dumb things over thousands of years that seemed at one point in time to be "state of the art".  How do we know this is any different?  

[WinterWolf]

So how’s the pattern look? Any changes? Dendrite said it looks good, and I know he’s looking for spring, so that’s a good sign.  

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

So how’s the pattern look? Any changes? Dendrite said it looks good, and I know he’s looking for spring, so that’s a good sign.  

I just meant there’s no real changes to the longwave look. But you’re getting out toward V-day so the normal caveats apply. 

[WinterWolf]

6 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Interesting, since November we have yet to see any pattern lock in but this is going to be the one that locks in for a solid 28+ days 

Good point.  But at some point it’s going to turn, when do you think that’s going to happen?  Next year? Still 6-7 weeks left to official winter.  Maybe he’s got it pegged this time? 

[weatherwiz]

I'm down with extending a winter pattern into mid-March if it means we'll have some snow threats. But once April comes...I'm ready for 70's and 80's. I want to watch some Bruins playoff games outside. I wouldn't mind though if we got a stretch in March where we got into the 60's or even tickled lower 70's. 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I just meant there’s no real changes to the longwave look. But you’re getting out toward V-day so the normal caveats apply. 

Oh ya…point well taken. Thanks. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

So how’s the pattern look? Any changes? Dendrite said it looks good, and I know he’s looking for spring, so that’s a good sign.  

Pattern mid-month still looks excellent. But it’s pretty much snoozefest for 10 days before that…only question is whether we can sneak a 60F nape tanner or two in there at the end of next week/weekend. 
 

But the pattern beyond that is still about as good as you could draw it up. 
 

 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Pattern mid-month still looks excellent. But it’s pretty much snoozefest for 10 days before that…only question is whether we can sneak a 60F nape tanner or two in there at the end of next week/weekend. 
 

But the pattern beyond that is still about as good as you could draw it up. 
 

 

especially love that EPS look tremendous blocking in the Arctic.  Things really start shuffling by day 8-9.. And that pattern starts locking in by day 10-12.. We should be tracking a region-wide plowable event by sometime next week hopefully some 60s too while we track.. 

[weatherwiz]

I like how that blocking evolves 

[ORH_wxman]

11 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

especially love that EPS look tremendous blocking in the Arctic

Yeah if we can set up a true blocking episode…it will help prolong the favorable look so that maybe we have longer than just a 7-10 day window. 
 

I’m skeptical until it’s right in front of us. Weeklies do try and run with that blocking and take us well into mid-March at the end of their run still with a favorable look. Not that any of us should trust the weeklies. 
 

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Pattern mid-month still looks excellent. But it’s pretty much snoozefest for 10 days before that…only question is whether we can sneak a 60F nape tanner or two in there at the end of next week/weekend. 
 

But the pattern beyond that is still about as good as you could draw it up. 
 

 

That  is the best look we have had since probably March 2018.

[Modfan2]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah if we can set up a true blocking episode…it will help prolong the favorable look so that maybe we have longer than just a 7-10 day window. 
 

I’m skeptical until it’s right in front of us. Weeklies do try and run with that blocking and take us well into mid-March at the end of their run still with a favorable look. Not that any of us should trust the weeklies. 
 

It that seems to be the theme of the winter, long range pattern looks good but within 10 days things change. Do we see any big cold in the extended? I am wondering if the pattern going forward after V Day looks favorable but is that for Pike north?

[RDRY]

1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

There is a third problem 

For any changes to actually take hold and gain stream  they have to be profitable and wide spread 

The majority of the worlds population that contributes to Carbon emissions already has food and shelter needs that are not met . I.E if you are a parent of a child you will do anything in your power that helps your kids survival , if you could feed and shelter your child in exchange for  pressing a button that releases a huge plume of co2 you would do it (if you are living in poverty) the alternatives to fossil fuels are more expensive and business sure won’t try to lower their profit margins for the “environment” . So with this being the case nobody in poverty living day to day and month to month has CC as a issue on their radar , especially when the fixes are more expensive and lower their ability to take care of their loved ones . This also goes for many poorer folks in G7 countries where their wealthier citizens have the privilege to “help” . If the current alternatives were forced on the world , I wonder if folks who have the privilege to do their part realize the poor (majority of globes population ) would have growing mortality rates from inflation and lack of ability to get around .

Any transition and alternatives would need to be subsidized by governments and the alternatives lower priced for widespread adoption . That is not even getting into wether the major contributors to emissions , one being the military industrial complex would ever take the risks of alternative powered vehicles when lives are on the line . Not that change isn’t needed but it would be messy and  cost a ton of lives on net (of people in poverty) which Is sort of not mentioned bc it would lower higher socioeconomic G7 folks (who are caring ) support 

It's another form of third-world exploitation. Super-wealthy elite who produce more CO2 than entire developing-country cities lecture about and mandate alternative-energy policies that are inferior and far more restrictive than fossil fuels. While completely ignoring the massive -- and increasing -- emissions from China.

[Damage In Tolland]

That looks like all NW cold dry flow there. Theres no southern stream and it screams suppression . We’ll pass on 2 weeks of 26/15 and dry cracked ground and skin  

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That looks like all NW cold dry flow there. Theres no southern stream and it screams suppression . We’ll pass on 2 weeks of 26/15 and dry cracked ground and skin  

Bloody marys?

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, Layman said:

I know anything resembling a dissenting view is frowned upon and the topic is then deemed to be clogging up the thread, but when I read all these posts I can't help but ask is the data accurate?  Why is one person's data more accurate than another?  Most forums tend to become echo chambers for the topics they're focused on.  Discussions turn to debates that turn to fights with each group "taking sides" standing firm with an unwillingness to objectively look outside of their firmly held views.  

Is the data accurate?  Why has NOAA adjusted the temperature data?  Was the data they're adjusting more accurate?  How much impact do heat islands have?  How much impact does time of observation have?  How reliable is the global temperature data set?  

Assuming everything we know is unquestionably, 100% accurate - does it even matter?

Does 200 years of presumably accurate temperature data provide any meaningful understanding of the condition of a planet that's understood or believed to be many millions or billions of years old?  

Cloud seeding?  SO2 balloons?  These strike me as being akin to "blessing" someone who sneezed to prevent the demons from entering the body.  Sure, it has morphed into courteous pleasantry for some reason, but really?  Demons entering the body?  

Humans have believed and orchestrated some really dumb things over thousands of years that seemed at one point in time to be "state of the art".  How do we know this is any different?  

The general ambit of the scientific community has employed methods for corroborative data ( from disparate sourcing...) for hundreds of years. From Biology to Geology to Deep Field Astronomy, to Quantum Mechanics... Meteorology, Hydrology ... any disciplinary study that passes through accreditation has corroborated empirical evidence/data. 

Einstein paced while, " In 1922 an expedition was undertaken to obtain photographs, taken during an eclipse of the sun, from which the bending of light as it passed by a massive body such as the sun could be measured. Such measurements were required to test Einstein's newly proposed Theory of Relativity "  As it were ... measurements taken of the position of Mercury showed errors in reality that Newtonian physics could not predict, until application of the GTR (Einsteinian) precisely predicted the actual position.  Probably butchering this a little but this is a already completely wrong for a February thread LOL

That's just one example.   The point is, the necessity to corroborate from unaffiliated sources has always been there. There really is no "why is your data more pertinent than mine" - that's not intrinsic in how accredited science operates.

Climate change is soaked with corroborated data - which makes its disposal ( at all ...) therefore all the more intriguing.

There are couple of primary reasons for that intrigue that are competing [for greatest cause of our extinction, tongue goes into cheek ] The first of which is, ... we deny because we can - I strongly suspect that is an enabled one.  It is enabled because the specter of CC has been too silent for it's slow moving nature, until very recently ... , to penetrate the soft luxury of a provisional state.  

Like all species on our planet, human beings formulate their understanding of their environs vis-a-vis what is perceivable through the 5 senses.  You know ...?  sight sound taste touch smell.  These are "USB ports" that connect us with the universal CPU.  We just have self-imposed evolved a "filtration virus" in the form of convenience addling by everything that occurs inside the Industrial bubble; the same machinery that is toxifying the planet ( not just CC, there's other reasons that will kill you related to everything from PFAs to mircro plastics ...etc... all of it ), also prevents its harm from getting into these USB ports. It's created a false universe of safety inside the grander system that allows it to even exist.  Sounds an awful lot like a virus, huh? 

Hence, people deny because they can ... or are being allowed to, unwittingly.

The other reason ( which may have some partial causal relationship with first aspect above...) is that the issue surrounding climate change became politicized decades ago. ... thus has became a target of distrusting.  That is the entrance to a rabbit hole of irreconcilable rages, because no one's political view ever succeeded in changing another one's political view without a war.  

 

[dendrite]

The gypsy’s weenie did not cast a shadow. 

Early spring.

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That looks like all NW cold dry flow there. Theres no southern stream and it screams suppression . We’ll pass on 2 weeks of 26/15 and dry cracked ground and skin  

Once cold is established by the Eps, these are the next 3 weeks' precip anomalies starting with week ending 2/26 off yesterday's run.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Once cold is established by the Eps, these are the next 3 weeks' precip anomalies starting with week ending 2/26 off yesterday's run.

Not very wet unfortunately 

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The gypsy’s weenie did not cast a shadow. 

Early spring.

HA ha hahaha.

Like we needed a folklore of any kind to tell us that was likely.

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Not very wet unfortunately 

Bring the cold first…too far out to worry about suppression or not at the moment. Let’s just hold the good look. 

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The gypsy’s weenie did not cast a shadow. 

Early spring.

Now we know the weeklies are actually going to be correct and we’re gonna rip snow bombs into the equinox like its 1958. 

[Typhoon Tip]

46 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Pattern mid-month still looks excellent. But it’s pretty much snoozefest for 10 days before that…only question is whether we can sneak a 60F nape tanner or two in there at the end of next week/weekend. 
 

But the pattern beyond that is still about as good as you could draw it up. 
 

 

These recent GFS operational runs are (imho) taking a primitive stab at an event.

The last three cycles have landed on the 12th, 14th and 15th ... but it's not abundantly clear whether it's just alternating the timing of the same mechanical wave space from ...wherever in the hell the model is sniffing that out.

As I was describing in a PM this morning ... technically the pure statistical inference allows for field activation from the 11th on.  We local time scale nadir the PNA, but it starts rising right away.  The GFS tends to be 'rushy' anyway, so ..if I were going to pistol select a date in that range I'd lean 15th/17th.   What is interesting though, we have been plagued by fast hemispheres for years really.  SO the GFS is kind of enabled within its own bias?    something like that...

So, we could see an entrance system in the +d(pNA) slope, then move up and help implode the JB coupled SPV with the western Canadian ridge. Then a more powerful ... perhaps even planetary scaled signal evolves out of that...  speculative.  

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

28 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That looks like all NW cold dry flow there. Theres no southern stream and it screams suppression . We’ll pass on 2 weeks of 26/15 and dry cracked ground and skin  

Its a split flow.

[40/70 Benchmark]

My second big dog winow from the Outlook in early November was 2/11 to 3/3. I still feel good about that, though it could be argured its a hair early, I guess.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My second big dog winow from the Outlook in early November was 2/11 to 3/3. I still feel good about that, though it could be argured its a hair early, I guess.

Yeah you could prob push everything out a week now that we have a better idea of what guidance looks like. 
 

Biggest unknown left this season (aside from actual snowfall since you can’t predict nuances) is how long does that favorable longwave period last. Is it 2 weeks and then early spring? Or does that blocking developing into a self-sustaining prophecy that takes us to the equinox? Hard to say…maybe it’s in between too and takes us to around 3/10-3/15. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah you could prob push everything out a week now that we have a better idea of what guidance looks like. 
 

Biggest unknown left this season (aside from actual snowfall since you can’t predict nuances) is how long does that favorable longwave period last. Is it 2 weeks and then early spring? Or does that blocking developing into a self-sustaining prophecy that takes us to the equinox? Hard to say…maybe it’s in between too and takes us to around 3/10-3/15. 

I'd be suprised if it makes it to 3/10.

[mahk_webstah]

56 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah if we can set up a true blocking episode…it will help prolong the favorable look so that maybe we have longer than just a 7-10 day window. 
 

I’m skeptical until it’s right in front of us. Weeklies do try and run with that blocking and take us well into mid-March at the end of their run still with a favorable look. Not that any of us should trust the weeklies. 
 

When blocking is strong, and not transient, does it not tend to lock in for a bit?  My worry is suppression if the 50-50 and NAO block are too far south.  But even then we'd probably get a storm up here as the pattern sets in and one as it leaves and maybe something in the pulses.

[radarman]

On 1/22/2024 at 11:47 AM, radarman said:

split flow and stj wave train discussion in backloaded Ninos is the absolute best

can't wait

bump

shortwaves all get washed out in l/r ens means... no worries about cold and dry yet...

[Typhoon Tip]

Folks seem preoccupied with seeking big dawgs .

The arriving +PNA saddle bagging the continental mid latitude flow can also result in a procession of middling events.  Just sayn'