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It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread


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54 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Euro would be a furnace Fri and Sat. Pound the over on 2mts with that look.

Yup -

entering the time of year when well mixed atmosphere's through which > 70% solar,  machine interpolations will routinely bust too cool to varying amounts.

I've never fully understood why that is the case ... I  suspect it's related to weighting toward climatology, the farther out in time the technology does the calculation.   But, if you take a dry adiabatic day at +5 C in May and soak it fully sun and WSW flow,  MOS leans low

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Yup -

entering the time of year when well mixed atmosphere's through which > 70% solar,  machine interpolations will routinely bust too cool to varying amounts.

I've never fully understood why that is the case ... I  suspect it's related to weighting toward climatology, the farther out in time the technology does the calculation.   But, if you take a dry adiabatic day at +5 C in May and soak it fully sun and WSW flow,  MOS lean low

When is the official Tippy declaration of nape season?

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1 minute ago, radarman said:

Of the big 3 storms in 2015, the Superbowl storm was the only good one here.  The Jan storm was like 8" IMBY but falling off quickly to the west and tainted by the bust factor.  And follow up Feb storm (#3)  was quite meh.

4th biggie kind of missed you too on 2/15

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Nobody got more than 18” really but yeah that was a good one. Mix line got to about 5 miles from my house and stayed away. I think I had like 14 and change.

Positive bust too. Was supposed to be like 8-12” and a slot but at the last second the rgem scored the coup on secondary development which prolonged the snow into afternoon and early evening. 

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8 hours ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

One of my rather childish ambitions (and there are many) is to plant some more, let's say, unusual specimens in the yard. I'd really like to see if a Tulip Tree could grow - I've never seen one in New England but I know they're around. I'd also like to see how well a Douglas Fir would do.

My parents planted some kind of Magnolia in Pepperell, MA and it would blossom beautifully every spring, but I think the poor thing only managed to grow from about 3ft to 5ft in 15 years.

Tulip trees are a dime a dozen in SE CT...come visit if you want to see some 100'+ examples.  I have 4 just behind my garage that are all 110'+ and dozens of them in the woods behind the house. They are amazingly fast growers.  I have another that is now ~60' and 40" in circumference that was just an 8' sapling in 2009 when I moved here.

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

4th biggie kind of missed you too on 2/15

5" for 2/15.  But checking my records there were just a ton of 2-5" events that somehow got us to 92.5" for the winter with a huge pack lasting into March.  

Edit- calling the 2/9 storm quite meh probably isn't fair.  Meh compared to 30" totals in spots perhaps, but not bad in a vacuum.

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10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Positive bust too. Was supposed to be like 8-12” and a slot but at the last second the rgem scored the coup on secondary development which prolonged the snow into afternoon and early evening. 

Yep. I remember thinking I would sleet, but never made it. One of just about every possible thing that went right that winter.

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15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Positive bust too. Was supposed to be like 8-12” and a slot but at the last second the rgem scored the coup on secondary development which prolonged the snow into afternoon and early evening. 

You think that FIT 20.7" is a mythical slanter.  LOL ...    Seems a bit of an outlier, though -

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18 minutes ago, radarman said:

Of the big 3 storms in 2015, the Superbowl storm was the only good one here.  The Jan storm was like 8" IMBY but falling off quickly to the west and tainted by the bust factor.  And follow up Feb storm (#3)  was quite meh.

Yeah, they were more East based, I was lucky to catch the western edge of most of them but when I drove East into Westborough and Southborough the snow got much deeper, wish I could find the pics I took driving around there.

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2 hours ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

I mean aren’t we already doing that? Green hydrogen, carbon capture and underground storage, switching to renewables, etc. 

No none of them are at scale because no one wants to pay for them. 

Two problems exist:

1. Whole economies are dependent on fossil fuels. 
2. The Paris Agreement was signed with the ambitious goal of 1.5C…. Well guess what… as Tip mentioned, the planet is basically telling us we’re already there.

So while today’s solutions aren’t the extremes you are thinking of, large scale climate engineering is all happening, it’s just not happening fast enough.

So I suppose in the end you Re correct, we’ll probably drop a nuke into Krakatoa. 

There is a third problem 

For any changes to actually take hold and gain stream  they have to be profitable and wide spread 

The majority of the worlds population that contributes to Carbon emissions already has food and shelter needs that are not met . I.E if you are a parent of a child you will do anything in your power that helps your kids survival , if you could feed and shelter your child in exchange for  pressing a button that releases a huge plume of co2 you would do it (if you are living in poverty) the alternatives to fossil fuels are more expensive and business sure won’t try to lower their profit margins for the “environment” . So with this being the case nobody in poverty living day to day and month to month has CC as a issue on their radar , especially when the fixes are more expensive and lower their ability to take care of their loved ones . This also goes for many poorer folks in G7 countries where their wealthier citizens have the privilege to “help” . If the current alternatives were forced on the world , I wonder if folks who have the privilege to do their part realize the poor (majority of globes population ) would have growing mortality rates from inflation and lack of ability to get around .

Any transition and alternatives would need to be subsidized by governments and the alternatives lower priced for widespread adoption . That is not even getting into wether the major contributors to emissions , one being the military industrial complex would ever take the risks of alternative powered vehicles when lives are on the line . Not that change isn’t needed but it would be messy and  cost a ton of lives on net (of people in poverty) which Is sort of not mentioned bc it would lower higher socioeconomic G7 folks (who are caring ) support 

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29 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

When is the official Tippy declaration of nape season?

Feb 8 at 40 N so it's probably 10th or so by us..

That's when we start eating snow banks ( ...what the f* is a "snow bank"  right ?) even in cold air. You get the 'shard' look - not the be mistaken with the "shart look"  hahahaha.   If the wind is very low and there's ample sun, it's a great time to sit on a park bench, or stroll slowly down the street.  It can be 35F in the ambient temperature but you feel a kind of warm nucleus surrounding you - it's an interesting dichotomy. Very fragile. The slightest zephyr penetrates and then you get a bit of a bite breeze to ( ...you guessed it!) the nape region.  HAHAHAHA.  And of course, Ray's fAvorite effect ...the interior of a cars parked in the open start roasting inside - this latter one interesting, because it's pretty differentiably noticeable more between the 5th and 10th.    

The graphical slope of watts/m2 begins to tip abruptly more steep around that perennial date.

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10 hours ago, weathafella said:

Recently?

I haven’t been there for like five years. When I was in Charlevoix, it hadn’t snowed for a month, but there were still 2 to 3 feet on the ground. There’s a Fairmont resort about two hours north east of Quebec city along the St. Lawrence seaway. It has a great casino actually and is a super resort and you can hire a guide to go out snowmobiling, there must be some great snowmobile trips that go from Maine in New Hampshire into Quebec. I would think. Every year on here I recommend that the weenies visit Quebec city. Not only is it snow filled and cold, it is also really charming and romantic with great food .  If these weenies wanted to impress their wives and girlfriends and husbands, they would take a long weekend to Quebec city. Much better than Montreal. And if you have more time, you can take a ride out along the Saint Lawrence seaway Northeast out of Quebec.

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14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

There were a plethora of slanters around that time out that way. 

Yeah there were three of them that always teamed up and reported totals within an inch or two of eachother in those bigger storms. And they were always higher than everyone else in that area. 

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