It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread

[NorEastermass128]

The overcast got bright for a couple hours earlier. The sun even peeked through. I could feel my mood actually improving. Now back to the dark overcast. FFS this sucks. 

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, kdxken said:

Isn't that what's supposed to happen in Nino?

yes, my point was that this winter has been solid elsewhere and the pattern was good in mid-Jan, just got screwed north of Trenton. I know that isn't what people want to hear, and generally, we want to be able to ascribe a reason to everything, but it's just shit luck. 

[weatherwiz]

Looking at the winter through now, this has largely gone close to expectations. Now the snowfall aspect certainly isn't there but the premise was we would see above-average precipitation (which we have) and more times than not in our region/latitude that is going to probably net at least close to average snowfall. The reasoning for that is not, "because we're in a strong EL Nino". There is always some element of "luck" involved and we certainly got unlucky at times. We got screwed with the cutter setups...but that wasn't a product of EL Nino. Anyone saying this has "sucked" because of strong EL Nino does not understand.

[Ginx snewx]

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We'll see....hopefully I am wrong. ...its roughly a two week+ window IMO, then winter is over and out-

Nah mid March 

[Great Snow 1717]

43 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

nice try but no lol...

[Layman]

31 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

for those that don't see this pattern forming or really doing anything, there should be some kind of reasoning besides "I don't feel like it's going to." TIA

As a casual and self-proclaimed thoughtful observer who contributes little to nothing to this forum, I follow the momentum and tenor that you experienced folks provide in your comments to gauge what, if anything may happen weather-wise.  I've seen a lot of posts with pretty colors and maps showing beautiful patterns that are just over the horizon for many weeks but alas, here we are on February 1st with the season that's been what it is to date - something that seems may approach normal by seasons end.  Perhaps this time, the pattern will be favorable for snow and the necessary moisture and storm tracks will follow to produce something meaningful in our area.  If it doesn't, well, that seems to be the greater wholesale pattern we've been in for a few years now so no surprise.  

It's like we've flipped a coin 15 times and it's been tails every time.  We know it's just as likely to be heads on every flip but after a while you kind of fall back on "I don't feel like it's going to".  

It definitely seems like there are firmly two majority camps in this realm however, especially this time of year:  those who want snowy winters and those who don't.  While each party may think they're being objective, scientific, rational, logical, etc with their posts, to the casual observer it's clear there's a bias.  Certainly not a problem, but when it clouds good judgement with every decision/forecast it becomes painfully obvious and diminishes the weight of the posters perspective in my eyes at least.  The horror, I know 

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Nah mid March 

Is it crazy to see how this ends up in phase 3, 4 or 5 right as February ends?

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Looking at the winter through now, this has largely gone close to expectations. Now the snowfall aspect certainly isn't there but the premise was we would see above-average precipitation (which we have) and more times than not in our region/latitude that is going to probably net at least close to average snowfall. The reasoning for that is not, "because we're in a strong EL Nino". There is always some element of "luck" involved and we certainly got unlucky at times. We got screwed with the cutter setups...but that wasn't a product of EL Nino. Anyone saying this has "sucked" because of strong EL Nino does not understand.

Well, December partially sucked because of strong El Nino.....not really January.

[ORH_wxman]

There is no doubt there is a very strong consensus for a more favorable pattern by mid-February. Details TBD and of course nobody in here cares unless it produces a deformation band over their noggin….but the current evidence is that the pattern will become quite favorable for colder/stormy….it could deteriorate as we get closer but there’s nothing yet that would make me actually predict that outside of “vibes”. 

[codfishsnowman]

17 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

The overcast got bright for a couple hours earlier. The sun even peeked through. I could feel my mood actually improving. Now back to the dark overcast. FFS this sucks. 

I know. It was nice here too for an hour or so earlier. Day ten of mostly cloudy or cloudier/rain/snow etc

[cleetussnow]

2 minutes ago, Layman said:

As a casual and self-proclaimed thoughtful observer who contributes little to nothing to this forum, I follow the momentum and tenor that you experienced folks provide in your comments to gauge what, if anything may happen weather-wise.  I've seen a lot of posts with pretty colors and maps showing beautiful patterns that are just over the horizon for many weeks but alas, here we are on February 1st with the season that's been what it is to date - something that seems may approach normal by seasons end.  Perhaps this time, the pattern will be favorable for snow and the necessary moisture and storm tracks will follow to produce something meaningful in our area.  If it doesn't, well, that seems to be the greater wholesale pattern we've been in for a few years now so no surprise.  

It's like we've flipped a coin 15 times and it's been tails every time.  We know it's just as likely to be heads on every flip but after a while you kind of fall back on "I don't feel like it's going to".  

It definitely seems like there are firmly two majority camps in this realm however, especially this time of year:  those who want snowy winters and those who don't.  While each party may think they're being objective, scientific, rational, logical, etc with their posts, to the casual observer it's clear there's a bias.  Certainly not a problem, but when it clouds good judgement with every decision/forecast it becomes painfully obvious and diminishes the weight of the posters perspective in my eyes at least.  The horror, I know 

People obviously feel like the coin is loaded - i.e. it flips tails >50% by a lot, so they go with that.  They think someone betting heads is wrong or wishcasting despite what models say.  That said, I'm leery and already on the ratter train.  Hopefully the Brooklynwx train stops at Feb 15th station and we can get on board that for awhile.  long way off...  

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, December partially sucked because of strong El Nino.....not really January.

Yup...was putting together an additional post to explain but had to delete attachments. This shows it all

Actually, anyone who wants to say January sucked b/c of a "classic strong EL Nino" is totally wrong. If this January was a "classic strong EL Nino" we probably would have cashed in solidly. 

Here is January 2024 vs. strong EL Nino January's (I only did events since 1950 b/c if I did pre 1950 I would have to split up and do some years using 20 CRV3 and NCEP/NCAR

I threw Dec on for comparisons as well

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Is it crazy to see how this ends up in phase 3, 4 or 5 right as February ends?

Take note of how biased the MJO route penduluum has been in favor of the right hand side...that is not by chance.

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Yup...was putting together an additional post to explain but had to delete attachments. This shows it all

Actually, anyone who wants to say January sucked b/c of a "classic strong EL Nino" is totally wrong. If this January was a "classic strong EL Nino" we probably would have cashed in solidly. 

Here is January 2024 vs. strong EL Nino January's (I only did events since 1950 b/c if I did pre 1950 I would have to split up and do some years using 20 CRV3 and NCEP/NCAR

I threw Dec on for comparisons as well

This January actually reminded me a bit of last January with the Pacific ridge leading to a western biased +PNA, which acted as a deep RNA.

Does that look like a +PNA....becuase it was.

[Torch Tiger]

26 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yes, my point was that this winter has been solid elsewhere and the pattern was good in mid-Jan, just got screwed north of Trenton. I know that isn't what people want to hear, and generally, we want to be able to ascribe a reason to everything, but it's just shit luck. 

not difficult being above average snowfall WTD when any particular area is averaging 10" or 20" of snow a season

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This January actually reminded me a bit of last January with the Pacific ridge leading to a western biased +PNA, which acted as a deep RNA.

kind of funny the similarities across Canada/U.S. with some similarities, yet vast differences across the hemisphere. 

[kdxken]

Anyone wishing to relive the glory of our winter so far You're invited to a webinar tonight at 7:00 p.m. Hurry space is limited!

 

https://www.weather.gov/box/webinars

[Great Snow 1717]

4 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Anyone wishing to relive the glory of our winter so far You're invited to a webinar tonight at 7:00 p.m. Hurry space is limited!

 

https://www.weather.gov/box/webinars

I'm cleaning my sock draw tonight...

[Layman]

13 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

People obviously feel like the coin is loaded - i.e. it flips tails >50% by a lot, so they go with that.  They think someone betting heads is wrong or wishcasting despite what models say.  That said, I'm leery and already on the ratter train.  Hopefully the Brooklynwx train stops at Feb 15th station and we can get on board that for awhile.  long way off...  

I like all the data, historical analogs and sciencey stuff that back up the forecasts and ideas around interpreting what may happen.  I personally feel however, that with all the inputs that are processed to create a model output, we need magnitudes more to dramatically improve accuracy especially as you look further out into the future.  Kind of an obvious statement but it's interesting to consider how much better forecasting can actually get.  Are we at the upper limit already?  I say "no", but who knows.  It's like considering where we are with human transportation - are we at the upper limit?  Comparing to model forecasting, are we at the horse and buggy stage?  Reusable rockets?  Inquiring minds want to know.  

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Layman said:

I like all the data, historical analogs and sciencey stuff that back up the forecasts and ideas around interpreting what may happen.  I personally feel however, that with all the inputs that are processed to create a model output, we need magnitudes more to dramatically improve accuracy especially as you look further out into the future.  Kind of an obvious statement but it's interesting to consider how much better forecasting can actually get.  Are we at the upper limit already?  I say "no", but who knows.  It's like considering where we are with human transportation - are we at the upper limit?  Comparing to model forecasting, are we at the horse and buggy stage?  Reusable rockets?  Inquiring minds want to know.  

There are multiple arguments for this point. When it comes to weather forecasting there are concepts here:

1. How the data is being processed and digested by the user (forecaster) 

2. How the data is being communicated 

There has been a lot of talk/discussion the past few years about whether models have gotten "worse". I don't think think models have gotten worse, now alot of the uncertainties and some of the waffling back-and-forth at times as been annoying, but I think the biggest issue overall and "downfall" to forecasting is how the data is being interpreted and how it is being presented. Forecasting should be a very thorough process which requires a great deal of time. The issue here though is, people don't have this time anymore. We've become very rip and read based. 

Running a 384 hour snowfall map or QPF map and saying it's going to be snowy/wet or dry is probably not the best measure to take. Getting all excited and hyped up when a model shows a blizzard at D12 only for it to "lose it" at D7 then blaming the models is probably not a good idea. 

It is all about expectations too. Just because a pattern is good doesn't mean it will produce. If you get a good pattern, but it doesn't produce, that doesn't mean the models "suck". 

At the end of the day, forecasting and analyzing models is much more than just taking your mouse cursor and running it across the entirety of the run and then making summations. 

[weatherwiz]

the evolution of the 12z EPS is really a thing of beauty. Just looking at it from a pattern perspective, the sensible weather and how the pieces move is irrelevant at this time only because we don't have a basis for this yet. 

[DavisStraight]

26 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

I'm cleaning my sock draw tonight...

I'm cutting my toenails, have to do it every 5 weeks.

[Great Snow 1717]

Just now, DavisStraight said:

I'm cutting my toenails, have to do it every 5 weeks.

Perhaps they will host a 2nd webinar for those of us who can't attend tonight's webinar...there is so much to discuss....

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

There is no doubt there is a very strong consensus for a more favorable pattern by mid-February. Details TBD and of course nobody in here cares unless it produces a deformation band over their noggin….but the current evidence is that the pattern will become quite favorable for colder/stormy….it could deteriorate as we get closer but there’s nothing yet that would make me actually predict that outside of “vibes”. 

The thing is, once we get out post 300 and especially 360 hours, we approach what I call the "coherency horizon" - just means that beyond that, there's zip skill and the flow tends to start looking rather annular as the westerlies direction becomes the only aspect that remains (artifact of ensembles in every direction)/N input.  

However, in this case there's an emergence of that powerful +PNA ... ironically, in all ens means - which makes it unusually more coherent than we would normally see at that range.  It's really interesing..   long ass slog before we can start picking specific events out the noise. But to have the more typically entropic range look so structured is really fantastic.

Ha... it seems we keep upping the ante on what is wasted, huh.  j /k

[kdxken]

1 hour ago, NorEastermass128 said:

The overcast got bright for a couple hours earlier. The sun even peeked through. I could feel my mood actually improving. Now back to the dark overcast. FFS this sucks. 

Just awful. Got a break for about 30 seconds today and then back to total overcast. Really starting to get to me.

 

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

First photos of Feb 2024 - Nothing but overcast here today. Went for a walk and took a few pictures of the east slope of Mt. Sunapee. The way the ice covered trees blend seamlessly into the clouds gives a kind of ghostly, ethereal feel. Still would be nice if the frickin' sun would come out. 

[weatherwiz]

Sweet, by the end of the month sunrise will be just before 6:30 AM and sunset will be close to 5:40 PM  

[kdxken]

1 hour ago, NorEastermass128 said:

The overcast got bright for a couple hours earlier. The sun even peeked through. I could feel my mood actually improving. Now back to the dark overcast. FFS this sucks. 

Have you ever tried light therapy or know of anyone who has? I'm kind of skeptical.

[kdxken]

15 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

First photos of Feb 2024 - Nothing but overcast here today. Went for a walk and took a few pictures of the east slope of Mt. Sunapee. The way the ice covered trees blend seamlessly into the clouds gives a kind of ghostly, ethereal feel. Still would be nice if the frickin' sun would come out. 

What 2 hours in 10 days isn't enough?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 hours ago, NorEastermass128 said:

The overcast got bright for a couple hours earlier. The sun even peeked through. I could feel my mood actually improving. Now back to the dark overcast. FFS this sucks. 

Just status quo gray and overcast here all day, again.   2 days with seeing the sun in two weeks.  Brutal.