40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: why? these patterns are pretty stable once they form, and the MJO just sorta rots in the IO. IO forcing in March is cold in Ninos I can see the MJO reemerging in the MC continent, which adds up with my analog composite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 for those that don't see this pattern forming or really doing anything, there should be some kind of reasoning besides "I don't feel like it's going to." TIA 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 Don't underestimate the ability of this El Nino to end up in the MC at least excuse imaginable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: for those that don't see this pattern forming or really doing anything, there should be some kind of reasoning besides "I don't feel like it's going to." TIA Weeklies think it will but how much can we trust any ens models post day 7 after their failures this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 33 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Hey, Jerry, how much did you get in that huge storm back on the 7th? Maybe ask him about '78 too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Weeklies think it will but how much can we trust any ens models post day 7 after their failures this year. there is so much going for this change hemispherically that i find it very hard to believe that they're wrong. nothing is impossible, i guess 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 The Euro would be out to the 11th - how's it look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: there is so much going for this change hemispherically that i find it very hard to believe that they're wrong. nothing is impossible, i guess I agree but skeptical. Hopefully we get 1 month of snowstorms 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 5 hours ago, qg_omega said: https://x.com/commoditywx/status/1752763050245955908?s=46&t=m4Eqkekadb-JCXTm7k-Txg That's probably going to change now. Apparently that storm offshore next week is going to drag down colder air to bring the temperatures into the 30s. So I think that's going to be revised Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 Meh... the common engager tends to be pretty linear in their reactions, though: x' looks like shit --> mood = shit doesn't matter what happened before what they saw...discussed. any of that. gone. see shit model solution --> mood = shit that's their mathematics. a few others can filter what they are seeing through a gauntlet of qualifiers, (experience + education)/2 before they react - but that processing actually limits much "reaction" at all. the may even be rather stoic to a bad or even bad series of model runs. what is interesting about this latter type of people, possessing varying amounts of that advantage/skill ... they are deliciously fragile in self-esteem and ego and the moment they are questioned they actually react worse than those of the linear group HAHAHAHA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 3 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: The Euro would be out to the 11th - how's it look? Boring AF 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I can see the MJO reemerging in the MC continent, which adds up with my analog composite. I suppose there may be blips, but it seems to overwhelmingly favor the IO through early March. I can see how after the 10th we break, but this should be longer than a couple weeks IMO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 I’m putting on a collared shirt today. Why? Because I’m celebrating overcast. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: there is so much going for this change hemispherically that i find it very hard to believe that they're wrong. nothing is impossible, i guess The PAC is also currently slowly underdoing changes which is great to see. Typically we have to wait to start seeing changes taking place but the wheels are already slowly in motion. One thing that makes me a bit nervous though is regardless of the changes, we're going to lack quality cold. This is more of a concern right along the coast but as long as we can get storms to track far enough off the coast or inhibit storms from going through cyclogenesis too early or too close to the coast so we flood wild milder ATL air, we should be good (especially interior). All this basically means is we probably favor a tree crushing pasting vs. dry/powdery snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: I suppose there may be blips, but it seems to overwhelmingly favor the IO through early March. I can see how after the 10th we break, but this should be longer than a couple weeks IMO With all due respect, you’ve been oblivious of the background tenor of the past 2 seasons. Yes we know what guidance is saying but we’ve failed at every supposed opportunity. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 1 minute ago, weathafella said: I’m putting on a collared shirt today. Why? Because I’m celebrating overcast. Edibles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Edibles Not for 2 years but hey maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: With all due respect, you’ve been oblivious of the background tenor of the past 2 seasons. Yes we know what guidance is saying but we’ve failed at every supposed opportunity. this is a strong Nino, the other two years were Ninas. this should not act like those years. also, at some point, the worm has to turn, that's usually how it goes. I can't forecast by saying "well last year sucked, so this one will" when everything is pointing in the other direction 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: The PAC is also currently slowly underdoing changes which is great to see. Typically we have to wait to start seeing changes taking place but the wheels are already slowly in motion. One thing that makes me a bit nervous though is regardless of the changes, we're going to lack quality cold. This is more of a concern right along the coast but as long as we can get storms to track far enough off the coast or inhibit storms from going through cyclogenesis too early or too close to the coast so we flood wild milder ATL air, we should be good (especially interior). All this basically means is we probably favor a tree crushing pasting vs. dry/powdery snow you have flow coming out of AK, though, seems like the air masses are of pretty good quality 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 11 minutes ago, MaineJayhawk said: Maybe ask him about '78 too Jerry just threw his Tandy against the wall. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: this is a strong Nino, the other two years were Ninas. this should not act like those years Yet, we are still mild and way below avg in snowfall 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 4 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: there is so much going for this change hemispherically that i find it very hard to believe that they're wrong. nothing is impossible, i guess The structure of the Pacific dipole still favors a predisposition towards the MC and often times that really extended guidance will adjust to account for that at shorter leads. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 Just now, Allsnow said: Yet, we are still mild and way below avg in snowfall not everyone is. look at the Mid-Atlantic. they're AN to date 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: I suppose there may be blips, but it seems to overwhelmingly favor the IO through early March. I can see how after the 10th we break, but this should be longer than a couple weeks IMO We'll see....hopefully I am wrong. ...its roughly a two week+ window IMO, then winter is over and out- 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: you have flow coming out of AK, though, seems like the air masses are of pretty good quality Yeah you're right...just went back and looked deeper. That would or should load the coldest anomalies our way and with the split flow look we should see an active STJ. I also like the positioning of the block advertised a bit better than last time. If we can get that look to stick around we easily should get 2-3 solid storm threats during the second half of the month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 ... I mean the reason I wrote that tongue-in-cheek just then is because I'm trying to figure out what the mania in here is about? It really seems in all seriousness like there's a "mood dysfunctionalilty" that is completely triggered by the fact that there isn't a big presentation on any operational guidance cinema. I really do wonder if a single run changes that 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 8 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: this is a strong Nino, the other two years were Ninas. this should not act like those years. also, at some point, the worm has to turn, that's usually how it goes. I can't forecast by saying "well last year sucked, so this one will" when everything is pointing in the other direction It is to a degree.....this is why the forcing has been biased so far west relative to the max SST anomalies....why December was warm and why January looked like a La Nina. And yes, the PAC jet extension made December more extreme, agreed. But there is no denying there is residual cool ENSO GLAAM....this El Nino has some La Nina DNA cooked into it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: ... I mean the reason I wrote that tongue-in-cheek just then is because I'm trying to figure out what the mania in here is about? It really seems in all seriousness like there's a "mood dysfunctionalilty" that is completely triggered by the fact that there isn't a big presentation on any operational guidance cinema. I really do wonder if a single run changes that I'm probably going to give it a week or so until I post again hahaha I've said where I stand and have backed it up with evidence, so we'll see where the chips fall. people are antsy, annoyed, and are looking desperately for this to find any way to fail. can I blame them, no, but it doesn't really lend itself well to an honest discussion about the way things are moving 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: ... I mean the reason I wrote that tongue-in-cheek just then is because I'm trying to figure out what the mania in here is about? It really seems in all seriousness like there's a "mood dysfunctionalilty" that is completely triggered by the fact that there isn't a big presentation on any operational guidance cinema. I really do wonder if a single run changes that I honestly just debating about very extended lead...nothing more or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: not everyone is. look at the Mid-Atlantic. they're AN to date Isn't that what's supposed to happen in Nino? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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