40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 February 2024 Preview The previously referenced 1/22 to 2/5 storm window is likely to conclude with tremendous additional unrealized potential, as the combination of a southward displaced OMEGA block and a Pacific short wave acting as a kicker will ensure that a powerful southern stream shortwave can not amplify on the east coast to any degree. Thus the month of February is destined to begin just as January ended, with a large degree of unrealized potential. But the question of whether or not that will remain common theme during the month is much more nebulous. Quiet Start to February 2024 May be Misleading February Analogs: 1958,1964,1966,1973,1977,1978,1980,1983,1995,2003,2007,2010(x2) The world of weather can often be quite deceiving, as evidenced on a monthly level by near record levels of precipitation in the absence of extreme warmth resulting in so little snowfall along the east coast to date. There can also be deception on a seasonal level, as Mother Nature can often be quite coy about what may stand between the general public and the highly coveted a reunion with spring. And there continue to be numerous signs, as there have in past El Niño seasons, that there answer just maybe plenty. This was strongly implied last fall: The apex of intense high latitude blocking conjoins with frequent PNA flexes to mark the pinnacle of the season for winter weather fans across the eastern US, especially the mid Atlantic region. The coastal plain should be the focus, as more winter storm threats should follow the early month NESIS window. The culmination of the seasonal progression of El Niño results in a Modoki like configuration as the event decays. The recovery of the PV is accompanied by more prominent RNA to fuel modification and an early end to winter throughout most of the east late in the month and into early March. But not before another Archambault window from about February 11 through March 3, which may also place an emphasis on the Mid Atlantic. Here is the February 2024 forecast H5 composite (1951-2010): (1991-2010) The transition from canonical early season form to full-fledged Modoki is apparent. February is obviously the coldest month of the DM composite across the east. February 2024 Forecast Temp Anomalies: 1951-2010: Temperatures range from near normal to as much as 2F below across New England to as much as 2-4F below normal across the Mid Atlantic. 1991-2020: February 2024 Forecast Precip Anomalies: 1951-2010: 1991-2020: The general thesis for this month continues to be well supported. Although perhaps the forecast departures of -2 to -4F over the mid Atlantic and near normal to +2 over New England will ultimately prove too cool yet again. Time will tell- But what does remain clear is that the apparent quiet first half of the month seems reflected not only in the forecast analog package: But also by latest guidance. The frustration will then mount for fans of winter, as a reinvigoration of the Pacific jet leads to another warm up next week, despite the eventual return of high latitude blocking. This is illustrated via the ensemble mean as simply a stochastic reaction to the breakdown of the current OMEGA block. The ridge weakens as is translates eastward and over the forecast area, as more energy simultaneously crashes heights to the west as part of a Rosby wave train reaction. This warm up will be ephemeral in nature, as the MJO is forecast by both the GFS and European suites to decrease in amplitude as it enters phase 8 by mid month. This is congruent with tropical forcing moving into the central Pacific/Indian Ocean and weakening before potentially reemerging in the Maritime continent to induce a warm up either very late in the month of February or early in March. This coincides with the reconfiguration of the Pacific in a potent Aleutian low regime with a powerful western CONUS ridge. 00z EPS: 00z GEFS: 00z GEPS: The reinvigoration of high latitude blocking/weakening PV will this time potentially be team with the reconfigured Pacific to culminate in a period of cross polar flow and a great deal of storminess. In the mean time, enjoy the break in the weather because the bulk of winter still awaits- 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 Does that mean it will snow? 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 17 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said: The other thing people rarely mention, but was just as historic was the cold. When it locked in it was brutal to be outside for any length of time. Since most people will remember the snow but being outside on overnight work was as cold or colder than I have experienced in 35+ years. Also by March of 95 I was hoping winter would just end. I was exhausted by then. One of those coastals arrived with an event entry temperature of +9 F here ... warmest it would be during the duration. Routine 50 to 55 mph wind gusts creaking window and rafter transported cold-shattered snow particulates as though it were an explosion at a talcum powder refinery. At one point just before the storm wound down the temperature stood at -1 F with 1/8 mi vis ... That was the worst combination of cryosophere I had experienced since the Cleveland Super Bomb Jan 25/27 1978, when it was 15F with 65 mph wind gusts over 30" of snow, the top several inches of which were in wind-driven flux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Kind of lacked 2015 in magnitude department, thouugh....as far as storm and peak deopth. Jan 8, 1996 was actually a bit less impressive to me than this past January 7...100% honest. I would rank it ahead. This past January was just your average everyday minor snowfall out this way. You guys really cashed in, I think I had about 5 inches here iirc. And that's true I think the largest storm I had here in 96 was about 13 or 14 in. We just had many many free to 10 inch deals that just kept coming and coming. Honestly I prefer that to a winter with just a couple of blockbusters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 My main question is Let’s see if the pacific one again turns into something less and less favorable as we get from day 14+ to day 10 and more so inside day 7 , bc it almost reminds me of how last year heights kept being too high in the SW only to fall as we got Inside day 6-10 and shift a very good look To a so so one that worked for up and in . This is not me * looking for the shoe * to drop it’s really just picking up on what seems to be a trend this year regarding the pacific look deteriorating from day 15+ to inside day 7-10 on multiple occasions and wonder if there is something “in place” that i’m not astute enough to identify that models can’t identify (at this lead ) which favors such a future shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: My main question is Let’s see if the pacific one again turns into something less and less favorable as we get from day 14+ to day 10 and more so inside day 7 , bc it almost reminds me of how last year heights kept being too high in the SW only to fall as we got Inside day 6-10 and shift a very good look To a so so one that worked for up and in . This is not me * looking for the shoe * to drop it’s really just picking up on what seems to be a trend this year regarding the pacific look deteriorating from day 15+ to inside day 7-10 on multiple occasions and wonder if there is something “in place” that i’m not astute enough to identify that models can’t identify (at this lead ) which favors such a future shift There are hints of that a bit at the end of the ensembles that the ridge is getting punched a bit by the Pac....I doubt this pattern has a ton of staying power as no pattern all winter really has 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: My main question is Let’s see if the pacific one again turns into something less and less favorable as we get from day 14+ to day 10 and more so inside day 7 , bc it almost reminds me of how last year heights kept being too high in the SW only to fall as we got Inside day 6-10 and shift a very good look To a so so one that worked for up and in . This is not me * looking for the shoe * to drop it’s really just picking up on what seems to be a trend this year regarding the pacific look deteriorating from day 15+ to inside day 7-10 on multiple occasions and wonder if there is something “in place” that i’m not astute enough to identify that models can’t identify (at this lead ) which favors such a future shift Based on recent history it is a valid concern... Kind of the Charlie Brown/ Lucy football scenario... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 11 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: There are hints of that a bit at the end of the ensembles that the ridge is getting punched a bit by the Pac....I doubt this pattern has a ton of staying power as no pattern all winter really has If that starts to happen…then we have a true Rat with no comeback happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Does that mean it will snow? Not in Plymouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 29 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: In the mean time, enjoy the break in the weather because the bulk of winter still awaits- Very bold call, I can see a week of winter like January but longer than that seems dubious 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 16 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: There are hints of that a bit at the end of the ensembles that the ridge is getting punched a bit by the Pac....I doubt this pattern has a ton of staying power as no pattern all winter really has I don't see that at all. that Aleutian low would gradually retrograde into March persistence forecasting wouldn't work here. this isn't a stable longwave configuration over the next 10 days 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 7 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Very bold call, I can see a week of winter like January but longer than that seems dubious I think it takes until sometime in early March, when the PV starts to tighten up again and the MJO re-emerges from the COD into the Maritime continent. That is also a subjective statement.....I was thinking in terms of snowfall...not a tall taks near the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 Ray, what did you get in 1/29/22? I think you mentioned aside from this Jan, your best recent storm was back in March 2018. Didn’t 1/29 jackpot parts of E NE? I forget who really cashed in but I thought some areas had over 20. That was great down here for me in coastal NJ, my biggest snowfall at 16 inches since Jan 18. @40/70 Benchmark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 I wonder if in the mid-West when they get setups where you'll have locations under Tornado Watches/Winter Storm watches if there happens to be a tornado is people bring their shovels into the basement with them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 6 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said: Ray, what did you get in 1/29/22? I think you mentioned aside from this Jan, your best recent storm was back in March 2018. Didn’t 1/29 jackpot parts of E NE? I forget who really cashed in but I thought some areas had over 20. That was great down here for me in coastal NJ, my biggest snowfall at 16 inches since Jan 18. @40/70 Benchmark Oh boy. You just inadvertently triggered him! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 7 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said: Ray, what did you get in 1/29/22? I think you mentioned aside from this Jan, your best storm was back in March 2018. Didn’t 1/29 jackpot parts of E NE? I forget who really cashed in. That was great down here for me in coastal NJ, my biggest snowfall at 16 inches since Jan 18. @40/70 Benchmark Around a foot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 384 hours for 0.1” of precipitation is impressive. (12z GFS) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Oh boy. You just inadvertently triggered him! Hey, Jerry, how much did you get in that huge storm back on the 7th? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 41 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: My main question is Let’s see if the pacific one again turns into something less and less favorable as we get from day 14+ to day 10 and more so inside day 7 , bc it almost reminds me of how last year heights kept being too high in the SW only to fall as we got Inside day 6-10 and shift a very good look To a so so one that worked for up and in . This is not me * looking for the shoe * to drop it’s really just picking up on what seems to be a trend this year regarding the pacific look deteriorating from day 15+ to inside day 7-10 on multiple occasions and wonder if there is something “in place” that i’m not astute enough to identify that models can’t identify (at this lead ) which favors such a future shift This is not me saying you suck its really just me picking up on you not being very good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Hey, Jerry, how much did you get in that huge storm back on the 7th? 6.5 strong! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 39 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: There are hints of that a bit at the end of the ensembles that the ridge is getting punched a bit by the Pac....I doubt this pattern has a ton of staying power as no pattern all winter really has I'd give it a good 2 weeks or so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'd give it a good 2 weeks or so... We’ve kind of settled on 2/28 to depart for Florida until late March. That would fit perfectly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'd give it a good 2 weeks or so... I don't see any signs of this really breaking down once it forms until March 10th or so. should be a solid 3-4 weeks 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Around a foot. ..while I measured 16.5 in methuen.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Around a foot. Sorry man, I knew it was somewhat spotty but I didn’t realize to that extent. I’m glad you scored so nicely in that early Jan event at least, for this year. Hoping things pick up as scheduled, and fingers crossed SNE to the coast joins in and gets some needed wintry love. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 8 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: ..while I measured 16.5 in methuen clearing every 15 minutes.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 12 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: I don't see any signs of this really breaking down once it forms until March 10th or so. should be a solid 3-4 weeks I could see it run some into March, but I think the 10th is pushing it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Hey, Jerry, how much did you get in that huge storm back on the 7th? Oh see now Karma is a muthha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I could see it run some into March, but I think the 10th is pushing it.... Historically the stronger Nino March years have sucked but this winter has not exactly had the classic strong Nino pattern at all anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I could see it run some into March, but I think the 10th is pushing it.... why? these patterns are pretty stable once they form, and the MJO just sorta rots in the IO. IO forcing in March is cold in Ninos. I expect it to warm up by mid-month, but blocking is pesky 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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