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It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread


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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah it’s interesting.  Hook and latter’s been a recurrent suggestion 

Long shot but interesting. 

Cmc is way out to sea. Interesting that the gfs is more amped than a y model.

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00z GFS Kuchera. Posted in honor of Moonshine who I think might be getting married today (yesterday). If not, truthfully, I probably would have posted it anyway.
1740879364_congratsmoonshineithink.thumb.png.cb4f64992cbe3896cb88b64432be6de3.png
I was getting married actually, that is why I was not on here all day (had surprise mood flakes all day and during the ceremony so I got my dream of marrying in snowfall )

Now give me a Valentine's Blizzard to REALLY make it memorable #LeveledUp3b5839ac67b63a4b9da16077a1c5e47f.jpg

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk



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GFS and GEFS took a slight step back at 6z with upper level configuration. I'd be highly skeptical outside of some snow showers along the coast, unless other models start coming aboard. It is crazy how different the GFS and Euro are though with the handling of the ridging.. a lot of moving pieces at play so still something to watch for some (not RUNNAWAYICEBERG)

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4 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

GFS and GEFS took a slight step back at 6z with upper level configuration. I'd be highly skeptical outside of some snow showers along the coast, unless other models start coming aboard. It is crazy how different the GFS and Euro are though with the handling of the ridging.. a lot of moving pieces at play so still something to watch for some (not RUNNAWAYICEBERG)

Long shot 

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The operational GFS has been acting like a zonked errant ensemble member the last day and half -worth of runs. 

The larger scope spatial orientation is too consistently against in the cinemas of all other available sources, both operational versions to their ensemble means. Including the GFS' own ensemble mean.  Really puts nearly 100% of the onus on it to be right.   That's not usually ending well for the guidance that's doing that - a coup over the group thinking is one thing, but that?  That amount of deviation argues for something of another excessive aberrancy altogether.  

Short version: punt.

...Oh, we'll keep it going as an afterthought.  Mainly because we're psychotically incapable of letting go LOL. But what are we talking about anyway - it's not like it's going to come far enough west to put anyone in headline anything.   It really can't with a mid Canadian ridge collapsing S-E/transmitting a non-linear argument for blocking from the NW whether it is actually observably so on the charts or not ( hence the non-linear aspect -)    heh.  buh-bye.  

13th+ still beacons with potential

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The operational GFS has been acting like a zonked errant ensemble member the last day and half -worth of runs. 

The larger scope spatial orientation is too consistently against in the cinemas of all other available sources, both operational versions to their ensemble means. Including the GFS' own ensemble mean.  Really puts nearly 100% of the onus on it to be right.   That's not usually ending well for the guidance that's doing that - a coup over the group thinking is one thing, but that?  That amount of deviation argues for something on another aberrancy altogether.  

Short version: punt.

...Oh, we'll keep it going as an afterthought.  Mainly because because we're psychotically incapable of letting go LOL. But what are we talking about anyway - it's not like it's going to come far enough west to put anyone in headline anything.   It really can't with a mid Canadian ridge collapsing S-E/transmitting a non-linear argument for blocking from the NW whether it is actually observably so on the charts or not ( hence the non-linear aspect -)    heh.  buh-bye.  

13th+ still beacons with potential

I never picked the ball up, so no prob.

We wait and pepare long range blogs.

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4 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

image.png.de633a05cdc805715fe72f6c99bbaa22.png

Can I honestly ask you something? If you want so badly to be taken more seriously and have the 5PPD removed, why is your presentation of data so one-sided? I understand that the past two winters have been biased warm with little snowfall, but in the past, you have simply dissapeared during severe bouts of winter weather. I have been trying to give you the benefit fo the doubt, but you make that difficult.

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