40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: TBH, my NAO/AO seasonal forecast last year pretty good, which is ironic because my overall calls have (especially in terms of snowfall) regressed. When I was going better, I struggled in the polar domain. This season seems to be okay, so far. Last year: Index Value Predicted '22-'23 DM Value Range Actual '22-'23 DM Value Forecast Error Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) -1.27 to -1.57 -1.89 Biased .32 positive Perennial North American Pattern (PNA) -.35 to -.65 -.68 Biased .03 positive ENSO SON -1.0 to -1.2 EMI: .3 to .5 (slightly east-hybrid) SON -1.0 (Verified) Verified +1 Modoki Error (J-M) East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) +.30 to +.60 -.43 Biased .73 positive Arctic Oscillation (AO) -.15 to -.45 -.38 Verified North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) +.15 to +.45 +.23 Verified Index Value Predicted '23-'24 DM Value Range Actual '23-'24 DM Value Forecast Error Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) -.30 to -.60 ? ? Perennial North American Pattern (PNA) +.15 to +.45 ? ? ENSO OND 1.7-1.9 ONI EMI: .6 - .8 (West Tilt Basin-Wide) ? ? (J-M) East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) +.10 to -.20 ? ? Arctic Oscillation (AO) -.30 to -.60 ? ? North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) +.10 to -.20 ? ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, Allsnow said: Agreed. The last sustained below normal stretch down here in a winter month was December 2017 into January 2018. That was because of the +pna/-epo combo. That +PNA/-EPO combo has been absent (outside of very transient periods) since that late Dec ‘17/early Jan ‘18 stretch. It’s what fueled the cold in those 2013-2015 years too. We’ve been cold in -PNA patterns plenty of times in the past but in the past 5-6 years they’ve been more hostile since we haven’t had the type of blocking needed and also the type of -PNA we’ve had is different from those 2007-2011 -PNA patterns. We’ve seen these large phases troughs that go deep into the southwest. They aren’t split flow or the further north like in years such as 2008-09 when we lot of the -PNA troughs were centered over BC and the PAC NW. These more recent winters have seen them dig so far southwest and when they do without split flow, it produces monster ridges in the east. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 5 minutes ago, 512high said: We love Eastern Mass. Weather! Great customer service! Always a money back guarantee ! Complementary February HECS, hopefully. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoCORH4L Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 20 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: who knows. going AN every year does not provide much value, though So you're saying to go BN once in a while, just for posterity sake? That doesn't make much sense. If it's AN.... Then go AN. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 40 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: i’ll put it this way. if 8/10 years are AN, then what is really “normal” at that point? when does a new one get defined? Maybe we need to say "above trend" instead of "above normal". Let's say the 30 year trend is an increase of .04f per year (fictional number), we draw the thirty year trend line, then forecast how far above/below the trend we expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 GFS OP keeps us in a pretty frigid regime while the rest of the country torches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, SouthCoastMA said: GFS OP keeps us in a pretty frigid regime while the rest of the country torches Yeah the 00z run had us matching the EPS more but the 06z and 12z runs trended back to being cold while the rest of the country furnaces. I still think it’s probably wrong, but one thing to keep an eye on is a potential block up near the eastern Beaufort sea to the pole…it’s solidly further east than your normal EPO block but in this case, it acts somewhat similar except instead of the cold dumping into the Canadian prairies and plains, it is further east and comes almost straight down east of Hudson Bay and into Quebec and New England. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 13 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: GFS OP keeps us in a pretty frigid regime while the rest of the country torches I’m not confident we go full on torch here, but I’m guessing the gfs will end up very wrong, because we can’t have nice things 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 @CoastalWx, OP Euro looking a little GFS-ish at the end. Still skeptical of full GFS but that was kind of a big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 For those wondering why it matters a lot aside from just temps, note how the central ridge is poking well up into Canada near Hudson Bay. At the same time you have a strong PAC STJ undercutting it…if you stick a PV lobe near New England and the STJ is able to fully undercut the ridge…it goes from a ridge to a block over Canada and the colder air gets pinned southeast of it over our area…it almost acts as a defacto west-based NAO block. You start amplifying the STJ into that cold air and you have the recipe for a legit snowstorm. In the image above, the STJ hasn’t yet fully undercut the ridge yet but it’s close. That type of evolution is still not favored and my guess is we end up furnacing for a time, but if you do in fact manage the scenario above, the sensible wx difference is night and day. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: For those wondering why it matters a lot aside from just temps, note how the central ridge is poking well up into Canada near Hudson Bay. At the same time you have a strong PAC STJ undercutting it…if you stick a PV lobe near New England and the STJ is able to fully undercut the ridge…it goes from a ridge to a block over Canada and the colder air gets pinned southeast of it over our area…it almost acts as a defacto west-based NAO block. You start amplifying the STJ into that cold air and you have the recipe for a legit snowstorm. In the image above, the STJ hasn’t yet fully undercut the ridge yet but it’s close. That type of evolution is still not favored and my guess is we end up furnacing for a time, but if you do in fact manage the scenario above, the sensible wx difference is night and day. Big change in the EPO region in the 11-15 day. Not sure if it's trend worthy as it's one run, but definitely trying to cool off central and eastern US. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 That euro look at 240hr is showing airmass direct from Iqaluit straight to the northeast. That could dump some ice cold air in from that source region. Worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: For those wondering why it matters a lot aside from just temps, note how the central ridge is poking well up into Canada near Hudson Bay. At the same time you have a strong PAC STJ undercutting it…if you stick a PV lobe near New England and the STJ is able to fully undercut the ridge…it goes from a ridge to a block over Canada and the colder air gets pinned southeast of it over our area…it almost acts as a defacto west-based NAO block. You start amplifying the STJ into that cold air and you have the recipe for a legit snowstorm. In the image above, the STJ hasn’t yet fully undercut the ridge yet but it’s close. That type of evolution is still not favored and my guess is we end up furnacing for a time, but if you do in fact manage the scenario above, the sensible wx difference is night and day. Definitely a flinch towards the GFS with that OP look.....hopefully we can dance around in a snowglobe while the rest of the country bakes..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 30 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: For those wondering why it matters a lot aside from just temps, note how the central ridge is poking well up into Canada near Hudson Bay. At the same time you have a strong PAC STJ undercutting it…if you stick a PV lobe near New England and the STJ is able to fully undercut the ridge…it goes from a ridge to a block over Canada and the colder air gets pinned southeast of it over our area…it almost acts as a defacto west-based NAO block. You start amplifying the STJ into that cold air and you have the recipe for a legit snowstorm. In the image above, the STJ hasn’t yet fully undercut the ridge yet but it’s close. That type of evolution is still not favored and my guess is we end up furnacing for a time, but if you do in fact manage the scenario above, the sensible wx difference is night and day. Is this what happened for the snow Mageddon for southern New England? In 2015? Wasn’t it basically warm everywhere else except New England? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 32 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: For those wondering why it matters a lot aside from just temps, note how the central ridge is poking well up into Canada near Hudson Bay. At the same time you have a strong PAC STJ undercutting it…if you stick a PV lobe near New England and the STJ is able to fully undercut the ridge…it goes from a ridge to a block over Canada and the colder air gets pinned southeast of it over our area…it almost acts as a defacto west-based NAO block. You start amplifying the STJ into that cold air and you have the recipe for a legit snowstorm. In the image above, the STJ hasn’t yet fully undercut the ridge yet but it’s close. That type of evolution is still not favored and my guess is we end up furnacing for a time, but if you do in fact manage the scenario above, the sensible wx difference is night and day. nice to see the EPS and all other ENS following the weeklies nearly verbatim. you’re a few days from slipping the STJ under the Canadian block and connecting it to the N Atl trough and you’re in a great pattern very quickly. that evolution also encourages a -NAO via wave breaking as well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, mahk_webstah said: Is this what happened for the snow Mageddon for southern New England? In 2015? Wasn’t it basically warm everywhere else except New England? Only for that Feb 7-9 storm. But yeah kind of similar but this is more amped and there is a much more active STJ. But in that 2015 setup you had the western ridge temporarily shoved east into the central CONUS and it torched them but we had this little vortex of lower heights stuck just to our northeast and it was enough to keep us cold and have that overrunning system get us. I remember it was in the 70s down in VA/NC as well as a good chunk of the TN valley and plains during the early part of that multi-day event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 13 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: nice to see the EPS and all other ENS following the weeklies nearly verbatim. you’re a few days from slipping the STJ under the Canadian block and connecting it to the N Atl trough and you’re in a great pattern very quickly. that evolution also encourages a -NAO via wave breaking as well If you assume the models are correct and are rushing the pattern (as they almost always do) the actual change probably happens closer to mid-February/ 2/15, again, assuming they are correct 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, snowman19 said: If you assume the models are correct and are rushing the pattern (as they almost always do) the actual change probably happens closer to mid-February/2/15, again, assuming they are correct yes, likely between the 10th and 15th if i had to take a guess 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 23 Author Share Posted January 23 If you assume the models are correct and are rushing the pattern (as they almost always do) the actual change probably happens closer to mid-February/ 2/15, again, assuming they are correctThe St. Valentine's Day Blizzard got a nice ring to itSent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 4 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said: The St. Valentine's Day Blizzard got a nice ring to it Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk I have a feeling if this change is going to be real, the models are rushing it and it probably happens post Valentine’s Day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: If you assume the models are correct and are rushing the pattern (as they almost always do) the actual change probably happens closer to mid-February/ 2/15, again, assuming they are correct 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I have a feeling if this change is going to be real, the models are rushing it and it probably happens post Valentine’s Day Maybe you're off by 12 hours? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 I'd take VDIII. (I *think we had 2 VD storms, one all the way back in Feb 2006 and one before that even?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: I'd take VDIII. (I *think we had 2 VD storms, one all the way back in Feb 2006 and one before that even?) 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: yes, likely between the 10th and 15th if i had to take a guess Just for the record (lol) my birthday is Feb. 11, I will be 61 yr. old, blizzard please! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 2007. @Typhoon TipTip said in the Fall of 2005 that the winter of 05/06 would not be a good one, but said given the pattern (whatever it was), some stations could get their seasonal average all in one storm. Which CPK did on Feb. 11. I may be the only person that remembers that call, but it was the best winter prediction I ever saw. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, cleetussnow said: @Typhoon TipTip said in the Fall of 2005 that the winter of 05/06 would not be a good one, but said given the pattern (whatever it was), some stations could get their seasonal average all in one storm. Which CPK did on Feb. 11. I may be the only person that remembers that call, but it was the best winter prediction I ever saw. That was back before the Hadley Cell ate him. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 This is still planet Earth, right ? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 23 Author Share Posted January 23 Wow. Just... Wow.Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 23 Author Share Posted January 23 +PNA, -NAO, just in time for Valentines DaySent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 22 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said: +PNA, -NAO, just in time for Valentines Day Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk A big ridge over us. You also want those blues out of the Davis Straits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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