It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread

[Typhoon Tip]

For several days ... ~ the 4th thru the 11th ... we'll be passing through a 'sub-index scale' event management.  That just means that things can happen, but they won't be as well signaled using the modal observations of the major mass-field domains ( deltas of the pna, ao ... epo nao dogs n cats willingness to sleep together ..etc) 

It's also possible that we'll go that distance in time but simply have nothing to track, too.  But the swing potential is large with temperatures.  If the ambient polar boundary some how gains enough latitude to be N-W, you could soar above climate by amounts that seem to exceed the in situ synopsis ( we'll leave it at that )  Lets hope for snow industries and general enthusiasts, we end up with a positively sloped L/W that mooshes the ridge heights S-E.

[wokeupthisam]

  Ensemble loaded pattern smacks of "Grease":  linear factors "time, place, motion" and non-linear factors "groove, feeling" 

"Grease is the word, is the word that you heard
It's got a groove, it's got meaning 
Grease is the time, is the place, is the motion
Now Grease is the way we are feeling"

[moneypitmike]

Forget the geese—there’s a flock of robins outside my window.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We'll see what happens.....there is still room for a 1958 like flip, at least to a degree in terms of snowfall. It will not be that cold, no.

Well according to the Pope, if we all just went by the El Niño influence, it would have been an east call up to this point.
 

So the big question begs to be asked of him, that if we continued along his(that) way of thinking, should we expect a marked uptick in winter weather, now that we are about to embark on February, when El Niños usually start to make up ground in New England?    I’m wondering how he feels about that idea? 

[weatherwiz]

What's so "textbook" about this winter with relation to EL Nino and strong EL Nino's? You can't just assume a winter is going to be above-average in terms of temperatures just because we're in a strong EL Nino. If above-average temperatures were "textbook" there would be little variation in these plots.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

For several days ... ~ the 4th thru the 11th ... we'll be passing through a 'sub-index scale' event management.  That just means that things can happen, but they won't be as well signaled using the modal observations of the major mass-field domains ( deltas of the pna, ao ... epo nao dogs n cats willingness to sleep together ..etc) 

It's also possible that we'll go that distance in time but simply have nothing to track, too.  But the swing potential is large with temperatures.  If the ambient polar boundary some how gains enough latitude to be N-W, you could soar above climate by amounts the seem to exceed the synopsis ( we'll leave it at that )  Lets hope for snow industries and general enthusiasts, we end up with a positively sloped L/W that mooshes the ridge heights S-E.

Seems like next weekend (about 9-11 days out) is the period to watch if we’re gonna sneak in some true torch days in the 50s or higher. At the moment, most guidance seems more muted but could change as we get closer. 
 

If that pattern beyond that keeps showing up without degrading, then I’ll become more enthusiastic for a potential larger snow threat. Pretty crazy ridge showing up out west.  

[Typhoon Tip]

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Seems like next weekend (about 9-11 days out) is the period to watch if we’re gonna sneak in some true torch days in the 50s or higher. At the moment, most guidance seems more muted but could change as we get closer. 
 

If that pattern beyond that keeps showing up without degrading, then I’ll become more enthusiastic for a potential larger snow threat. Pretty crazy ridge showing up out west.  

Yeah, it's hard to want to call it a signal this far in advance but it's pressing the 'period of interest' approach right to tolerance.  man -

huge.   but, sufficed it is to say, that could also materialize in different ways. A period of time with multiple event coverage.  Or as you say, some bigger singular restorative ordeal. 

It's just too early.. but, the three pillars are looming:   numerical telecons are massively in favor;  track -able R-wave modulations are switching the mode of the hemisphere into a text-book wave number;  the back-ground correlators highly constrained. 

this can mean a lot of things...  ranging from a single historic situation, to a series of important events, ...to even a variation between those too, just too far SE or NW to be ideal for our region.  BUT, the eastern mid latitude continent is like a NASA targeting algorithm outputting bull's eye for a comet impact

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Well according to the Pope, if we all just went by the El Niño influence, it would have been an east call up to this point.
 

So the big question begs to be asked of him, that if we continued along his(that) way of thinking, should we expect a marked uptick in winter weather, now that we are about to embark on February, when El Niños usually start to make up ground in New England?    I’m wondering how he feels about that idea? 

I think he just meant in terms of temps and below average snowfall.

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah, it's hard to want to call it a signal this far in advance but it's pressing the 'period of interest' approach right to tolerance.  man -

huge.   but, sufficed it is to say, that could also materialize in different ways. A period of time with multiple event coverage.  Or as you say, some bigger singular restorative ordeal. 

It's just too early.. but, the three pillars are looming:   numerical telecons are massively in favor;  track -able R-wave modulations are switching the mode of the hemisphere into a text-book wave number;  the back-ground correlators highly constrained. 

this can mean a lot of things...  ranging from a single historic situation, to a series of important events, ...to even a variation between those too just too far SE or NW to be ideal for our region.  BUT, the eastern mid latitude continent is like a NASA targeting algorithm outputted bull's eye for a comet impact

Very interesting for sure…but it could be a gorgeous pattern(if it indeed ever materializes) and still not produce much of anything as you say for our area, as has happened repeatedly for two years now.  That’s always the chance we take on any pattern.  Good info Tip. 
 

One would have to think, after missing on decent/good patterns so much the last couple winters, that even in the worst of stretches, the odds/law of averages at some point have to play in…another words we are due for something to break in the right direction for the area as a whole.  

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think he just meant in terms of temp and below average snowfall.

Well that’s what I mean…El Ninos tend to be paltry early, and get going later.  I’m wondering if he’s thinking the way it sounds, does he expect an uptick using the logic that he is? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Well that’s what I mean…El Ninos tend to be paltry early, and get going later.  I’m wondering if he’s thinking the way it sounds, does he expect an uptick using the logic that he is? 

Man, I don't know about you...but I have endured my 1980s decade....not sure what you else you would call my winter experience since March 2018. There is no way in hell that regression from this point forward should be a bad thing in terms of snowfall....I think we have just about past the point where I have signed Mr. Regression to play on my team.

[Modfan2]

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Very interesting for sure…but it could be a gorgeous pattern(if it indeed ever materializes) and still not produce much of anything as you say for our area, as has happened repeatedly for two years now.  That’s always the chance we take on any pattern.  Good info Tip. 
 

One would have to think, after missing on decent/good patterns so much the last couple winters, that even in the worst of stretches, the odds/law of averages at some point have to play in…another words we are due for something to break in the right direction for the area as a whole.  

The odd part is not that we have missed out be cause precip wise we have been above normal, but the temp dept we have been marginal. Going forward do temps favor us and we lose out on precip chances? At some point we will go through a stretch of drier weather, does that happen now? Does it happen Spring or Summer?

[Kitz Craver]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I need something to break right....I feel like the last two years, last season and this one, I have had damn good seasonal efforts that just haven't amounted to anything where it counts...snowfall. I feel like I have largely had the pattern right, but it just refuses to snow. You try to point out great looks to validate the forecast and it just gets eye rolls.

We have had a gorgeous Mahogany white linen table set. The finest gold leaf china, beautiful sterling silver. Salivating for a michelin experience. FN kitchen staff has been on strike for the last three years however. They pulled a third string dishwasher outta the basement and offered up some shit on shingles. Weenies be like, “ehhh, actually I’m not that hungry anymore” Lol 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Man, I don't know about you...but I have endured my 1980s decade....not sure what you else you would call my winter experience since March 2018. There is no way in hell that regression from this point forward should be a bad thing in terms of snowfall....I think we have just about past the point where I have signed Mr. Regression to play on my team.

Oh no doubt, We’ve been in a lousy stretch snd I’m with you for sure.  As I said…you’d think at some point soon, the law of averages has to come knocking eventually.  We due for something to break right. Even in the paltry 80’s, which I was a teenager from ‘81 on, so I remember well…we’d get a bone thrown to us every so often.  

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

The odd part is not that we have missed out be cause precip wise we have been above normal, but the temp dept we have been marginal. Going forward do temps favor us and we lose out on precip chances? At some point we will go through a stretch of drier weather, does that happen now? Does it happen Spring or Summer?

Definitely a valid concern…

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Oh no doubt, We’ve been in a lousy stretch snd I’m with you for sure.  As I said…you’d think at some point soon, the law of averages has to come knocking eventually.  We due for something to break right. Even in the paltry 80’s, which I was a teenager from ‘81 on, so I remember well…we’d get a bone thrown to us every so often.  

The lows of the 1980s were worse for my area, but it wasn't this consistently subpar.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Definitely a valid concern…

The CFS is dry for February.

[mahk_webstah]

38 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

For several days ... ~ the 4th thru the 11th ... we'll be passing through a 'sub-index scale' event management.  That just means that things can happen, but they won't be as well signaled using the modal observations of the major mass-field domains ( deltas of the pna, ao ... epo nao dogs n cats willingness to sleep together ..etc) 

It's also possible that we'll go that distance in time but simply have nothing to track, too.  But the swing potential is large with temperatures.  If the ambient polar boundary some how gains enough latitude to be N-W, you could soar above climate by amounts that seem to exceed the in situ synopsis ( we'll leave it at that )  Lets hope for snow industries and general enthusiasts, we end up with a positively sloped L/W that mooshes the ridge heights S-E.

I've been thinking that for at least up here I don't buy the notion of 10 dry days.  If so, then the the pattern has changed (no matter with qqanon thinks).  Maybe a little shortwave that drops 2-4, maybe a warm-up as you said.  Maybe a Scooter high that cools us off if we get a cutter later next week.  I mean, who knows.  And a few sunny days in the 30s will feel good.  The models have not been stellar...and this is a big climo period for snow up here.  I'm at 33", and I expect by March 15 to be at or above my seasonal norm of 70.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The CFS is dry for February.

[Modfan2]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The CFS is dry for February.

I mean we’ve been pretty wet since summer and you have to think the pendulum swings back the other way; I honestly thought that it would have happened by now and we have close to 17” of rain since Dec. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Modfan2 said:

I mean we’ve been pretty wet since summer and you have to think the pendulum swings back the other way; I honestly that it would have happened by now and we have close to 17” of rain since Dec. 

Well, you could say the same thing about temps, but 'alas.....CC.

[CoastalWx]

December seemed more classic Nino, but I don't think Jan featured strong Nino characteristics across the country. Almost like a -PDO flavor with the record cold in the Canadian prairies into the Plains. Hell even AK.

[40/70 Benchmark]

One thing I think we will want to avoid is rainers....hope the mild first half of the month is dry. Operating under the premise that precip will in fact be at a premium, then we can't waste it. If we cram it all into the last week or two of the month, then it can still be fun.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

December seemed more classic Nino, but I don't think Jan featured strong Nino characteristics across the country. Almost like a -PDO flavor with the record cold in the Canadian prairies into the Plains. Hell even AK.

I like that higher heights look to build in AK next month...that has killed us.

[Typhoon Tip]

35 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Very interesting for sure…but it could be a gorgeous pattern(if it indeed ever materializes) and still not produce much of anything as you say for our area, as has happened repeatedly for two years now.  That’s always the chance we take on any pattern.  Good info Tip. 
 

One would have to think, after missing on decent/good patterns so much the last couple winters, that even in the worst of stretches, the odds/law of averages at some point have to play in…another words we are due for something to break in the right direction for the area as a whole.  

You know it's a funny conversation - ... mainly for spectators like myself, who like to sit back in diabolical wait for the delicious posting wars muah hahaha.  I don't typically involve in the luck debate. 

But, the hard reality is ... there is randomization associated with determinism in meteorology - a paradox in concepts there that I suspect is what loses people.   "how could random anything lend to determinism "?   fair question - the answer is, it doesn't.  Determinism is not deterministic.  People don't get that. 

Weather projection is a new advent in history ( trying to avoid being too 'deep' and glossing eyes).  People need to understand how weather forecasting happens.  Oh, they think they get it - but they don't.   One important aspects that derails most ( from what I read in the public) on the way to their understanding: the pathway encounters increasing emergence of unintended forces along the way - these forces perturb the system in question.  Blame quantum field theory but time permits randomness entering all systems.  The only way to stop that is to control the quantum mechanics that is the origin of reality itself. 

This is referred to 'chaos' in common thinking... and time dependent systems cannot avoid them in our Universe - literally...it is a function of and how reality itself emerges. 

SO,  "weather" people want to call it luck or not ... I don't care to get involved with people's personal grapple with shit they cannot control ( probably what motivates).  But, when projecting the future state of any dynamic field ( to wit, weather is one of those types )  emergence of randomness makes absolute precision impossible.  We are always increasingly reliant on randomness NOT violating the scope of the original projection, the farther out in time we attempt to project.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

December seemed more classic Nino, but I don't think Jan featured strong Nino characteristics across the country. Almost like a -PDO flavor with the record cold in the Canadian prairies into the Plains. Hell even AK.

That is at least partially a by product of the forcing being so far west with this El Nino due to the boiling west PAC.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just going over things right now...little too cool in the NE, but my January idea was pretty close. I'll post it later. Sucks the coast got boned for snow, but see Tip's post above as to why.

[ORH_wxman]

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yep. But if the first 10-12 days of the month is bone dry, that wouldn’t be too bad for the second half of the month. If we finished the month an inch below normal on QPF but almost all of the precip falls after the 12th, we’d take that in a heartbeat. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yep. But if the first 10-12 days of the month is bone dry, that wouldn’t be too bad for the second half of the month. If we finished the month an inch below normal on QPF but almost all of the precip falls after the 12th, we’d take that in a heartbeat. 

Yes, I was thinking the same thing, but I am afraid to say it at this point. I don't blame people for rolling eyes.....I could see something happening like last March, where I pretty much got it right, but we were bent over, anyway.

[ORH_wxman]

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

December seemed more classic Nino, but I don't think Jan featured strong Nino characteristics across the country. Almost like a -PDO flavor with the record cold in the Canadian prairies into the Plains. Hell even AK.

Yeah this is a weird temp pattern for a strong Nino January