The 4 Seasons Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Digital snow..it's all we've got. Someday that will happen again 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Just now, The 4 Seasons said: Digital snow..it's all we've got. Someday that will happen again One final shot I think we’ll have to get a big dog…and I think Ray’s window makes sense when you look at the MJO progression and general seasonality of ENSO. Hopefully we can get one. Maybe we will repeat the 1957-58 timing again like we did in January. (For refresher, in 1957-58, the first big snow of the season here was 1/7….then there were additional smaller events but also a huge rainstorm with a bit of interior wet snow on a benchmark track around 1/23-1/25….sound familiar yet?) The pattern turned significantly colder during the 2nd week of February in 1958 and then we got the first big dog on 2/16/58. There was a reload during the 2nd week of March and we got the monster storm around the equinox too. This year is obviously not going to run as cold as Feb ‘58 since that was an exceptional arctic outbreak, but I could see some good storm chances. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 26 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said: Triple weenie. Although, it has literally broken my heart only one run apart already. stay strong 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 29 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: Well... I'd have to push my Hubby aside for Valentines day!!! This would be my new love ( for the day )! I'm lucky my Hubby is as into the weather as I am... We'd both weenie out to that! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 1 minute ago, UnitedWx said: I'm lucky my Hubby is as into the weather as I am... We'd both weenie out to that! You found a weather weenie husband?! Mine just looks at me and rolls his eyes. That is probably true for most in relationships on here. Although I think Will is married to a meteorologist. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 I'm tired of looking at 300 plus snow maps 1 1 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I'm tired of looking at 300 plus snow maps I just noticed that NYC is at exactly 2.3" season to date, which happens to be same as the final snow total for the 22-23 season....so you're ahead of the curve already! 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Definitely a period of interest evolving after ~ the 13th 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 32 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I'm tired of looking at 300 plus snow maps You have no choice , it’s become therapeutic To some , there have probably been 20 or so that showed snow for NYC from hours 275 -384 the last two years and 0 that do at go time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 35 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I'm tired of looking at 300 plus snow maps Good afternoon Anthony. You already have something good to look at …. Right there beside you for decades to come. Stay well, as always …. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Definitely a period of interest evolving after ~ the 13th All 3 sets of guidance look good at that time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Definitely a period of interest evolving after ~ the 13th Lock it in. Fly out the 15th to warm weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 48 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: You found a weather weenie husband?! Mine just looks at me and rolls his eyes. That is probably true for most in relationships on here. Although I think Will is married to a meteorologist. What's worse is my wife never buys what I'm selling even though I've been proven right numerous times. Her go to for weather is Matt Noyes 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 53 minutes ago, UnitedWx said: I'm lucky my Hubby is as into the weather as I am... We'd both weenie out to that! Well that's good for you because mine is not lol. He actually can't stand the cold and snow at all. But he supports me anyway ( just think some crazy ). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 52 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: I just noticed that NYC is at exactly 2.3" season to date, which happens to be same as the final snow total for the 22-23 season....so you're ahead of the curve already! They'll probably end up somewhere between 8-14 inches in the end if I had to guess...still could end up another top 10 snowless..how we pull that off in a Nino is beyond me.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 22 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: What's worse is my wife never buys what I'm selling even though I've been proven right numerous times. Her go to for weather is Matt Noyes Same! My wife had a secret weather blog she went to after reading my weather reports to compare forecasts. She never trusted mine until Sandy. I had to earn it, I guess. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 30 Author Share Posted January 30 EPS says Happy ValentinesSent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 9 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said: EPS says Happy Valentines Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk This looks better than the setup for the 5th threat (that one looks dry everywhere, low is way offshore). Before I really get invested in this period, I want to see 2 things. 1. No can kicking 2. to not see any signs of the pattern breaking down on the long range guidance once we get to the short range It actually moved up a bit over the past few days, so that’s a good sign. I think it will happen, but I’m more concerned about how long it lasts. If it is just a transient window that isn’t going to cut it. To get this winter out of rat territory we need this favorable pattern to lock in for a good month. We did have a couple transient favorable windows, but did not capitalize and they were too short. The theme of the winter has been warm and wet, the question remains whether this is a transient window inside a sea of warmth, or is it a large scale change to cold? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 1 minute ago, George001 said: This looks better than the setup for the 5th threat (that one looks dry everywhere, low is way offshore). Before I really get invested in this period, I want to see 2 things. 1. No can kicking 2. to not see any signs of the pattern breaking down on the long range guidance once we get to the short range It actually moved up a bit over the past few days, so that’s a good sign. I think it will happen, but I’m more concerned about how long it lasts. If it is just a transient window that isn’t going to cut it. To get this winter out of rat territory we need this favorable pattern to lock in for a good month. I think having a +PNA this time is going to make it harder for this to fail or be only like a 7-10 day change. I am not sure there is any real science or proof to this but after 30 plus years I have found +PNA/Aleutian low setups can be a bitch to break down, it seems way easier to kill the -EPO/-NAO or -EPO/+NAO type setup or certainly it can have more go wrong if it shows up 12-15 days out where you get cutters...you ain't getting any cutters in that setup 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 If things trend in the direction of a 1 month stretch of BN temps, I’ll start getting excited. If that happens, then we have a shot to make up for lost time IF we get lucky. Hopefully we at least get one shot to roll the dice on a good 1 month stretch of below normal temps with above normal precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 That is a look I was hoping we would have seen more of here in January but that look fits into the mold of what you would expect at some point during the second half of winter when accounting for ENSO, stratosphere, etc. That look would yield potential for some great coastal cylogenesis with PJ/STJ phasing. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 8 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I think having a +PNA this time is going to make it harder for this to fail or be only like a 7-10 day change. I am not sure there is any real science or proof to this but after 30 plus years I have found +PNA/Aleutian low setups can be a bitch to break down, it seems way easier to kill the -EPO/-NAO or -EPO/+NAO type setup or certainly it can have more go wrong if it shows up 12-15 days out where you get cutters...you ain't getting any cutters in that setup This was a huge problem last year and in mid Jan this year. Those back to back cutters especially were awful. Not having to worry about that would be a welcome change for sure. For some reason I thought a -NAO meant you can’t cut…. I learned the hard way that isn’t true last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Just curious, how come the -NAO stretches we had the past couple of years didn’t prevent storms from cutting? I always thought a -NAO meant storms would be forced to redevelop south and turn into Miller Bs even if the trough is west. Is it due to the location of the block? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 1 minute ago, George001 said: Just curious, how come the -NAO stretches we had the past couple of years didn’t prevent storms from cutting? I always thought a -NAO meant storms would be forced to redevelop south and turn into Miller Bs even if the trough is west. Is it due to the location of the block? I think they've been too east based and or they are fake blocks/ some have argued a big ass block over Hudson Bay does not technically qualify as a -NAO and it can cause issues with the TPV/phasing too early....even a +PNA that is too far west can cause cutting...12/15/89 I believe here would qualify as a +PNA and this storm cut but there were some other issues too over the Oh Valley/east region. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1989/us1215.php 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 1 minute ago, George001 said: Just curious, how come the -NAO stretches we had the past couple of years didn’t prevent storms from cutting? I always thought a -NAO meant storms would be forced to redevelop south and turn into Miller Bs even if the trough is west. Is it due to the location of the block? This is definitely an important factor to consider when assessing these things. There is more to whether the NAO or PNA or EPO is positive or negative, how the pressure centers are structured and where they're placed is way more important than the reading itself. You can have a -NAO where the block is east of Greenland, you can have a -NAO where the block is west, hell even south...we've seen that a few times over the years and northern New England actually sees above-average temperatures because the ridging pokes into the region. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: I think they've been too east based and or they are fake blocks/ some have argued a big ass block over Hudson Bay does not technically qualify as a -NAO and it can cause issues with the TPV/phasing too early....even a +PNA that is too far west can cause cutting...12/15/89 I believe here would qualify as a +PNA and this storm cut but there were some other issues too over the Oh Valley/east region. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1989/us1215.php agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: All 3 sets of guidance look good at that time. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: This image has been used too often over the last 3 years. 4 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 One final Charlie Brown episode should do it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Just now, cleetussnow said: Was this already posted here? If not, here You need to be Usain Bolt to beat Moonshine to the weenie d15 image 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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