brooklynwx99 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I feel like @qg_omegamay have had a point when he said that we need to do a better job accounting for GW with respect to the seasonal temp forecasts. who knows. going AN every year does not provide much value, though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, ORH_wxman said: I think he’s still below 10”. He’s gonna need several good sized storms…esp if 1/29-30 is a no-go there. Things can happens fast in any favorable pattern but there’s never any guarantees. Sometimes you get 2-3 double digit storms in a 2 week period but other times you might just get one storm or maybe you get two smaller ones or maybe you get skunked despite a good look. Perfect example was the last two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: It’s just not ideal to send all our cold to the other side of the globe halfway through the season. I just hope we have time to recover from that beat the coast. NNE with get their snow regardless Its not ideal......but sometimes ideal patterns do not bare the fruit and suboptimal ones do. I think the big dog potential will still exist. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: who knows. going AN every year does not provide much value, though Outside of being correct, sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 If the GFS suite was closer to correct I'd feel better, but that face planted last night. End of 11-15 day did get better on all guidance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: who knows. going AN every year does not provide much value, though You'll be more right than wrong though. Just how it is, unless you have a clear signal not to. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: who knows. going AN every year does not provide much value, though Well, when every year is above normal it does. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, Allsnow said: Outside of being correct, sure being correct and being able to provide an accurate picture of how the winter may play out are two different things. Feb could easily be AN from the first week and drop 30” in two weeks in the MA. how would one reconcile that in a forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: who knows. going AN every year does not provide much value, though The reason he got 5-posted was he did this every year even 10 years ago when everyone was getting buried. Calling for the same thing over and over again provided zero value. Even went out of his way this year to confidently call 1/7 a miss. Again…zero value. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, CoastalWx said: You'll be more right than wrong though. Just how it is, unless you have a clear signal not to. when wouldn’t you, then? weak ENSO? neutral winters? tough to say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, CoastalWx said: You'll be more right than wrong though. Just how it is, unless you have a clear signal not to. Yea, just need to look at the scoreboard. I need to find a better way to convey/adjust for that in my composites. Omega was 100% right about that...its constructive criticism. Def. not a bias, though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: being correct and being able to provide an accurate picture of how the winter may play out are two different things. Feb could easily be AN from the first week and drop 30” in two weeks in the MA. how would one reconcile that in a forecast? We are discussing temps not a random event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, ORH_wxman said: The reason he got 5-posted was he did this every year even 10 years ago when everyone was getting buried. Calling for the same thing over and over again provided zero value. Even went out of his way this year to confidently call 1/7 a miss. Again…zero value. that’s why i can’t give him too many props. something about blind squirrels 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: being correct and being able to provide an accurate picture of how the winter may play out are two different things. Feb could easily be AN from the first week and drop 30” in two weeks in the MA. how would one reconcile that in a forecast? You can do both.....still include H5 composite and snowfall forecast. I went above normal temps and near normal snowfall this year. Don't be afraid to go "warm and snowy". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 i’ll put it this way. if 8/10 years are AN, then what is really “normal” at that point? when does a new one get defined? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: when wouldn’t you, then? weak ENSO? neutral winters? tough to say Hasn't really mattered. You could argue weaker ENSO I guess for colder risks. You're best bet as someone who trades commodities like energy is to time the warm/cold spells during winter vs predicting HDDs for an entire winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: i’ll put it this way. if 8/10 years are AN, then what is really “normal” at that point? when does a new one get defined? 2031. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: You can do both.....still include H5 composite and snowfall forecast. I went above normal temps and near normal snowfall this year. Don't be afraid to go "warm and snowy". from a perspective of providing actionable information to clients, which is what i do, “warm and snowy” will make their heads explode. that is tough to convey clearly for laymen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: i’ll put it this way. if 8/10 years are AN, then what is really “normal” at that point? when does a new one get defined? I agree with @bluewave Our next cold winter will come out of nowhere and then we will know what to look for rolling forward. Whenever that is 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: from a perspective of providing actionable information to clients, which is what i do, “warm and snowy” will make their heads explode. that is tough to convey clearly for laymen I guess its more of a concern for you because you are a professional with paying customers....I just forecast for @512highon my High School weather blog (thanks @jbenedet) 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 We’ve had some warm and snowy winters recently…2020-21, 2016-17, 2012-13 were all “warm” and snowy around here. They still had long stretches of snow cover though. Ironically, our coldest winter in the past 7 years was a bit BN for snow which was 2018-19. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, Allsnow said: I agree with @bluewave Our next cold winter will come out of nowhere and then we will know what to look for rolling forward. Whenever that is Next year may have a sneaky potential with a big ACE La Nina likely. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, ORH_wxman said: We’ve had some warm and snowy winters recently…2020-21, 2016-17, 2012-13 were all “warm” and snowy around here. They still had long stretches of snow cover though. Ironically, our coldest winter in the past 7 years was a bit BN for snow which was 2018-19. 2004-2005? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Next year may have a sneaky potential with a big ACE La Nina likely. The mjo progression in October will give us an idea if we get a 20/21 type Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: I agree with @bluewave Our next cold winter will come out of nowhere and then we will know what to look for rolling forward. Whenever that is My guess is nobody will be able to forecast cold winters very well even after we get a few…the biggest reason is the AO/NAO has been largely stochastic. Nobody has been able to forecast them with any real skill months ahead. Maybe if there’s a wholesale change in the Pacific that favors +PNA/-EPO ridges like the 2013-2015 years then maybe… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 2004-2005? Yeah I wouldn’t call that warm…it was near normal on temps, maybe slightly AN. But certainly colder than the other years I listed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: My guess is nobody will be able to forecast cold winters very well even after we get a few…the biggest reason is the AO/NAO has been largely stochastic. Nobody has been able to forecast them with any real skill months ahead. Maybe if there’s a wholesale change in the Pacific that favors +PNA/-EPO ridges like the 2013-2015 years then maybe… TBH, my last few NAO/AO seasonal forecasts have been pretty good, which is ironic because my overall calls have (especially in terms of snowfall) regressed. When I was going better, I struggled in the polar domain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, ORH_wxman said: My guess is nobody will be able to forecast cold winters very well even after we get a few…the biggest reason is the AO/NAO has been largely stochastic. Nobody has been able to forecast them with any real skill months ahead. Maybe if there’s a wholesale change in the Pacific that favors +PNA/-EPO ridges like the 2013-2015 years then maybe… Agreed. The last sustained below normal stretch down here in a winter month was December 2017 into January 2018. That was because of the +pna/-epo combo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I guess its more of a concern for you because you are a professional with paying customers....I just forecast for @512highon my High School weather blog (thanks @jbenedet) We love Eastern Mass. Weather! Great customer service! Always a money back guarantee ! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I guess its more of a concern for you because you are a professional with paying customers....I just forecast for @512highon my High School weather blog (thanks @jbenedet) You handled that with class…. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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