ChangeofSeasonsWX Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: This was a winter for Alaska . They have crushed it since late October. Almost nonstop. When they get winter .. the northeast typically doesn’t . It’s been unrelenting up there I took a trip up there last September (early September) and it was already snowing up in Healy! I didn't want to come back lmao I should have spent this winter up there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 I'd be willing to bet the 1979-1980 futility would have been matched recently if the factor of CC- attributed PWAT increases were removed... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 6 minutes ago, ChangeofSeasonsWX said: I took a trip up there last September (early September) and it was already snowing up in Healy! I didn't want to come back lmao I should have spent this winter up there. They’ve had some very mild and not much snow winters while we got crushed. It’s rare that both regions share deep winter . When you see that kind of cold up there, you don’t plan on too much deep winter in the East 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: They’ve had some very mild and not much snow winters while we got crushed. It’s rare that both regions share deep winter . When you see that kind of cold up there, you don’t plan on too much deep winter in the East I think 1968-1969 pulled it off for us and AK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 For any newcomers looking for great summaries of climate data including monthly / seasonal snowfall: http://climod2.nrcc.cornell.edu/ Quick eyeball: 1957-58 had one of the best turnaround of snowfalls for KBOS: 6.7" Nov-Jan, then 38" Feb-April. I'm curious what teleconnectors were at play in the switch if anyone knows. Also, not a formal statistical analysis, but the most prominent trend is just all the higher maxima beginning 1992-93 (incidentally, the year I arrived in Boston, skewing my expectations forever ): Seasonal snowfall for KBOS: 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 minute ago, wxsniss said: For those looking for great summaries of climate data including monthly / seasonal snowfall: http://climod2.nrcc.cornell.edu/ Quick eyeball: 1957-58 had one of the best turnaround of snowfalls for KBOS: 6.7" Nov-Jan, then 38" Feb-April. I'm curious what teleconnectors were at play in the switch if anyone knows. Also, not a formal statistical analysis, but the most prominent trend is just all the higher maxima beginning 1992-93 (incidentally, the year I arrived in Boston, skewing my expectations forever ): Seasonal snowfall for KBOS: Higher maxes and more mins too. Look how volatile the graph gets as time goes on. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 6 minutes ago, wxsniss said: For any newcomers looking for great summaries of climate data including monthly / seasonal snowfall: http://climod2.nrcc.cornell.edu/ Quick eyeball: 1957-58 had one of the best turnaround of snowfalls for KBOS: 6.7" Nov-Jan, then 38" Feb-April. I'm curious what teleconnectors were at play in the switch if anyone knows. Also, not a formal statistical analysis, but the most prominent trend is just all the higher maxima beginning 1992-93 (incidentally, the year I arrived in Boston, skewing my expectations forever ): Seasonal snowfall for KBOS: That period from late 50s to 1970 was so consistent compared to the chaos now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Higher maxes and more mins too. Look how volatile the graph gets as time goes on. Very much all or nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think 1968-1969 pulled it off for us and AK. 2012-13 as well. I think there’s plenty of examples since the correlation is prob something like a few tenths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 21 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Very much all or nothing. It actually looks like the late 50s to early 1970a are the outlier. Very consistent AN snowfall. I’ve mentioned it before but that was 17 consecutive seasons of normal or AN snowfall at ORH. Completely abnormal for the climate record going back to late 19th century. But since so many datasets like to start in the 1950 time range and the older generations grew up in that era, many falsely think that was “normal” baseline climate. It wasn’t. edit: scott beat me to it, lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Impressive to think models are advertising 10+ days rain free as we head into February. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 2 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Impressive to think models are advertising 10+ days rain free as we head into February. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 4 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HiDefinitionNucleicAcid Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Non Sequitur /Just for fun, comparing accumulated snowfall from 9/30 to 1/29, accumulated snowfall from 9/30 to 4/30, and December 31st snow cover extent, for the seasons of '08 thru '23 (apologies for the resolution, was trying to fit the size limits ). Then below that this seasons accumulated snowfall from 9/30/23 to 1/29/24 Eyeballing it; '11-'12 and '15-'16 were the worst for accumulation in New England region-wide. While on the flip side in recent years ('18-'19 onwards) NNE and the mountains seem to have had some decent seasons while the coastal plain has been way BN. There's definitely some seasons in there that had hefty amounts of snow after Jan, but in the AN seasons there was already considerably more snow on the ground at the end of January than we have currently. Also found it interesting to look at the snow cover at the end of December, it varies widely, and the '23 extent was shockingly low. While it seemed possible to eek out a marginally decent season on the coastal plain in '21-'22 with a low snow cover December, for the most part, lower December snow cover seems to coincide with BN seasons on the coastal plain in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Definitely 50's to early 70's was a great run on winters...I am slowly working on going back to 1878, since discovering some new data, and also working on some temp trends as well as precip. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 29 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It actually looks like the late 50s to early 1970a are the outlier. Very consistent AN snowfall. I’ve mentioned it before but that was 17 consecutive seasons of normal or AN snowfall at ORH. Completely abnormal for the climate record going back to late 19th century. But since so many datasets like to start in the 1950 time range and the older generations grew up in that era, many falsely think that was “normal” baseline climate. It wasn’t. edit: scott beat me to it, lol Thank you for putting this into perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 40 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Very much all or nothing. There’s some averages in there but I notice the more frequent peaks and valleys. I bet if we look before 1950, regardless of totals, we would see a smoother data set as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 27 minutes ago, HiDefinitionNucleicAcid said: Non Sequitur /Just for fun, comparing accumulated snowfall from 9/30 to 1/29, accumulated snowfall from 9/30 to 4/30, and December 31st snow cover extent, for the seasons of '08 thru '23 (apologies for the resolution, was trying to fit the size limits ). Then below that this seasons accumulated snowfall from 9/30/23 to 1/29/24 Eyeballing it; '11-'12 and '15-'16 were the worst for accumulation in New England region-wide. While on the flip side in recent years ('18-'19 onwards) NNE and the mountains seem to have had some decent seasons while the coastal plain has been way BN. There's definitely some seasons in there that had hefty amounts of snow after Jan, but in the AN seasons there was already considerably more snow on the ground at the end of January than we have currently. Also found it interesting to look at the snow cover at the end of December, it varies widely, and the '23 extent was shockingly low. While it seemed possible to eek out a marginally decent season on the coastal plain in '21-'22 with a low snow cover December, for the most part, lower December snow cover seems to coincide with BN seasons on the coastal plain in general. Yup.. generally , December holds the key to SNE winter 1 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 27 minutes ago, HiDefinitionNucleicAcid said: Non Sequitur /Just for fun, comparing accumulated snowfall from 9/30 to 1/29, accumulated snowfall from 9/30 to 4/30, and December 31st snow cover extent, for the seasons of '08 thru '23 (apologies for the resolution, was trying to fit the size limits ). Then below that this seasons accumulated snowfall from 9/30/23 to 1/29/24 Eyeballing it; '11-'12 and '15-'16 were the worst for accumulation in New England region-wide. While on the flip side in recent years ('18-'19 onwards) NNE and the mountains seem to have had some decent seasons while the coastal plain has been way BN. There's definitely some seasons in there that had hefty amounts of snow after Jan, but in the AN seasons there was already considerably more snow on the ground at the end of January than we have currently. Also found it interesting to look at the snow cover at the end of December, it varies widely, and the '23 extent was shockingly low. While it seemed possible to eek out a marginally decent season on the coastal plain in '21-'22 with a low snow cover December, for the most part, lower December snow cover seems to coincide with BN seasons on the coastal plain in general. I was just looking through some of this data too, I didn't realize how crappy it's been around MSP this year. Only 7.3" ytd, and +12,+4 for Dec/Jan. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 47 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Impressive to think models are advertising 10+ days rain free as we head into February. That won’t verify. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yup.. generally , December holds the key to SNE winter This is “generally” not a fact. Sometimes it can. Sometimes it means nothing. If we capitalized on the good patten of late, it wouldn’t mean jack shit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: They’ve had some very mild and not much snow winters while we got crushed. It’s rare that both regions share deep winter . When you see that kind of cold up there, you don’t plan on too much deep winter in the East Our Winter of Spring in 2012 they got hammered up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: This is “generally” not a fact. Sometimes it can. Sometimes it means nothing. If we capitalized on the good patten of late, it wouldn’t mean jack shit. December means more where higher snowfall averages are. For a place like ORH, if you essentially punt December, it’s hard to recover though not impossible. El Niño years are the best way to do it…Ala 1957-58, 1965-66, and even 1982-83 (finished near average that year). Fo even snowier to a place like Maine where Tamarack is, essentially punting November/December (let’s call it less than 5” of snow) is going to be even harder to come back from. It can still happen but not as easily as a place that might only average 7-10” in Nov/Dec combined. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 welp, we’re seeing it on the GEFS, GEPS and EPS now. just wanna give it another week but all of it tracks when looking at tropical forcing, the equatorward Pacific jet, SPV weakening earlier this month, and general Nino climo 2 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 26 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: This is “generally” not a fact. Sometimes it can. Sometimes it means nothing. If we capitalized on the good patten of late, it wouldn’t mean jack shit. You are incorrect, I avg 60” a year here. If I get 0 in Nov/ Dec.. how many years am I going to get 60” in Jan and Feb.. I’ll even include Morch .. very few. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 26 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: Our Winter of Spring in 2012 they got hammered up there. Yeah. Another great example there. If you see Alaskans naked and snowy and -50 everyday with record snow ( like this entire winter) you are not going to do well in E North America. There is a direct correlation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: December means more where higher snowfall averages are. For a place like ORH, if you essentially punt December, it’s hard to recover though not impossible. El Niño years are the best way to do it…Ala 1957-58, 1965-66, and even 1982-83 (finished near average that year). Fo even snowier to a place like Maine where Tamarack is, essentially punting November/December (let’s call it less than 5” of snow) is going to be even harder to come back from. It can still happen but not as easily as a place that might only average 7-10” in Nov/Dec combined. I was talking about SNE only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AstronomyEnjoyer Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 While this thread is sorta on the topic of seasonal snowfall totals, does anyone know or have a map of New England with similar fidelity to this ALY one? This is the first season I'm actually documenting my snowfall total and I'm trying to get a better idea of what my average is. Sorry, know this is off topic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: You are incorrect, I avg 60” a year here. If I get 0 in Nov/ Dec.. how many years am I going to get 60” in Jan and Feb.. I’ll even include Morch .. very few. No I’m not Kevin. I average about 50”…and I’ve done it before. Nobody is saying it’s easy, but it’s not impossible, there’s proof that it’s happened. It sucks, and it ain’t fun, but we’ve recovered from no snow in December before. So that’s all I’m gonna say on this. And lol about November snow too….the average for most of SNE in November is pathetically low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: This was a winter for Alaska . They have crushed it since late October. Almost nonstop. When they get winter .. the northeast typically doesn’t . It’s been unrelenting up there Pretty much how it works up there, And its 7 day lag for here, So if they furnace you can expect a cold shot here generally a week later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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