It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread

[CoastalWx]

Actually a decent look at the end of the EPS. But I just can't anymore lol.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Actually a decent look at the end of the EPS. But I just can't anymore lol.

Its around the time the MJO is going into phase 8....I think there's a pretty good chance for a decent pattern in 2nd half of February, but obviously nobody will care if ti doesn't produce a big dog, lol

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Its around the time the MJO is going into phase 8....I think there's a pretty good chance for a decent pattern in 2nd half of February, but obviously nobody will care if ti doesn't produce a big dog, lol

It would be nice if the MJO propagation could slow down some, especially through the more favorable phases. I guess one positive this time around entering phase 8 is the MJO signal looks a bit stronger, though there is a ton of ensemble spread. I do think we have a brief window during the second half of February for something.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Its around the time the MJO is going into phase 8....I think there's a pretty good chance for a decent pattern in 2nd half of February, but obviously nobody will care if ti doesn't produce a big dog, lol

At this point, I'd be happy with an advisory. 

[brooklynwx99]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Its around the time the MJO is going into phase 8....I think there's a pretty good chance for a decent pattern in 2nd half of February, but obviously nobody will care if ti doesn't produce a big dog, lol

I think at this point, even though there is overwhelming evidence that we're going to flip into a favorable, potentially highly favorable pattern around the 15th, there's no more point in saying it, because you'll get get trolled or ignored. just need to wait a week and see what's going to happen. it's gotten so bad lmao

[kazimirkai]

21 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I think the idea of not much hope the remainder of winter is valid. Now northern New England and higher elevations, that is a different story. They can still crank out snow events well into March and April, but for everyone else...we have to ask ourselves, what is going to be the driver to not only increase potential but to realize potential? 

As we move forward, we are going to have to test our luck with another round of blocking. Now, we're likely to get another period of blocking, but does that happen too late in the season to help the region as a whole or can we get it earlier to give the region a better shot? 

This is just one snippet since there is no way to post a loop (I don't think) without creating a gif but the prospects of getting much help/assistance from the Arctic at least through the next few weeks is very slim. The PV is fairly in tact and also becomes displaced on the other side of the hemisphere and this, combined with the PAC will just usher mild PAC air into North America. 

By the time we can probably make adjustments it may be too late for most of the region.

Do you think the window of opportunity of pulling snow out of these blocking patterns has slimmed in the last 10 or 20 years because of increasing temperatures? To the point that a favorable late February pattern is less likely to result in a storm than it used to be?

[H2Otown_WX]

19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

At this point, I'd be happy with an advisory. 

Agreed, a 3-5" type deal that doesn't melt the next day would be nice. I guess by the time that might happen we'll be battling sun angle.

[weatherwiz]

Just now, kazimirkai said:

Do you think the window of opportunity of pulling snow out of these blocking patterns has slimmed in the last 10 or 20 years because of increasing temperatures? To the point that a favorable late February pattern is less likely to result in a storm than it used to be?

I don't think so but I suppose it can't be ruled out. I think the bigger issue overall is the expectations we set in place as individuals. We tend to think that a favorable pattern equates to producing and it just doesn't work like that. While you can have similar patterns, how the pieces move and evolve within the pattern could be totally different. 

In a perfect world, we would have a complete dataset of all examples. We have an understanding of what patterns are associated with big snow events. We have the Northeast Snowstorm books which are the Bible of winter weather and we have a pretty rich database of historical events. We all can take a set of events and then create re-analysis plots and gauge similarities when it comes to the pattern. But what we are lacking is understanding how many good patterns don't produce. Historically, do good patterns produce a high percentage of the time (60-70+%) or do they produce at a much smaller percentage (10% or 20%)? This is what we don't know. 

The other factor too is the details. We could see a significant storm, but be a fish storm. Now because nobody got anything from it, it gets classified as a "dud"...but technically, the pattern did produce. 

We do seem to be struggling with good phasing events though during the winter months...whether this is just bad luck or there are influences from the climate...we can all debate this but we really won't know unless this just continues to happen year after year. 

We hurt ourselves probably because we try to verify weather, patterns, events based on what happens in our own backyard. Weather and patterns couldn't give two shits about anyone's backyard. 

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Well you and I agree. Look at all the posts after mine that don’t care about December snow lol. Point remains.A snowy December is needed for a great winter 

In our 25 Decembers, 14 have been below the average and 9 led to BN winters.  Only 9" on 12/31/2000 prevented 6-of-15 AN as that winter had 150% of the average here.  While nearly 2/3 of BN Decembers have been part of BN winters here, the ones that were in AN winters are not rare.

[weatherwiz]

Speaking of snowfall averages, whether it be monthly or seasonal, it is very possible our perception of "average is skewed". I would like to use a climo site as a test but again THE DATABASE SUCKS. But I bet looking at BOS snowfall record (on a monthly/seasonal basis) you would find a wide variation. Just adding up all those numbers and dividing by the number of years may not be totally accurate. We've certainly had some monster months and monster seasons which may be outliers. To get a truce idea of the average this stuff would have to be calculated with outliers removed. 

[iceman1]

first week of feb doesn't look to good for snow .

but we will hope and pray for the perfect setup .

[MJO812]

Damn RIP Euro on Stormvista soon

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

11 minutes ago, iceman1 said:

first week of feb doesn't look to good for snow .

but we will hope and pray for results.

Fyp. The perfect setup or good setups have repeatedly failed. At this point. It can be a dogpoo setup so long as a shortwave farts at the right time and gifts us with snow. 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Damn RIP Euro on Stormvista soon

Yep, heard about that. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Damn RIP Euro on Stormvista soon

Retiring the euro op is a good idea but replacing it with the weenie control run is two steps backwards. 

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Damn RIP Euro on Stormvista soon

Yikes. Next winter the 12z euro control will start at 2pm 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Retiring the euro op is a good idea but replacing it with the weenie control run is two steps backwards. 

My guess is that it won't be much if any different. They will make sure the model is QA'd.

[WinterWolf]

The OP is abysmal compared to what it used to be. 

[WinterWolf]

48 minutes ago, kazimirkai said:

Do you think the window of opportunity of pulling snow out of these blocking patterns has slimmed in the last 10 or 20 years because of increasing temperatures? To the point that a favorable late February pattern is less likely to result in a storm than it used to be?

No. It’s just been some bad luck/bad timing.  We had a period where we’d pull snow out of any old set up, no matter how bad. It’s just the way the pieces are/aren’t coming together.  Pretty much as simple as that. Good/great pattern’s just aren’t producing.  It’s our turn in the shit box the last couple years. It’ll change again, just gotta wait it out. 

[Prismshine Productions]

Remember when the FV3 took over the old GFS?

This is gonna be worse

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[dendrite]

32 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Retiring the euro op is a good idea but replacing it with the weenie control run is two steps backwards. 

I think I had read the control run is going to get improved resolution, but don’t hold me to that. 

[weathafella]

2 hours ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Is BOS still < 10” on the season?

9.1.  8.9 so far in January so below normal but not abysmal.  The sad part is futility is now off the table so we even lost the consolation prize.

[kdxken]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

9.1.  8.9 so far in January so below normal but not abysmal.  The sad part is futility is now off the table so we even lost the consolation prize.

It's not off the table for the two-year combined. We're well on our way.

[Allsnow]

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s around the time the MJO is going into phase 8....I think there's a pretty good chance for a decent pattern in 2nd half of February, but obviously nobody will care if ti doesn't produce a big dog, lol

I would care if it actually produces a favorable below normal temperature period AND troughing in the east. I don’t need a big dog . Seems the below normal temps is the part that just doesn’t seem to be believable last 2 years . Granted I won’t mind if the mountains cash but I’d like the CP to be in the game if it’s actually a favorable period 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I think at this point, even though there is overwhelming evidence that we're going to flip into a favorable, potentially favorable pattern around the 15th, there's no more point in saying it, because you'll get get trolled or ignored. just need to wait a week and see what's going to happen. it's gotten so bad lmao

Overwhelming evidence at day 15+ , So again what level of predictability are we talking here   (and not on a relative basis) 

I’m sincerely asking , bc I don’t think it’s worth much till it’s inside 10 days and that is why people are trolling it bc it’s *inherently not valuable regarding predictability * at 15 days + 

I also don’t think winter is over lol and I’m not trying to rush 45 degree drizzle days in Ne mass thru April 

[weathafella]

26 minutes ago, kdxken said:

It's not off the table for the two-year combined. We're well on our way.

Is there such a statistic?   Anyway a quick eyeball of the data says the number is 39.4 (1935-36 and 1936-37).  If we include 1934-35 the 3 year total is 55-a 3 year ratter!  We’d need less than 18ish for the rest of the season to better that.

[kdxken]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Is there such a statistic?   Anyway a quick eyeball of the data says the number is 39.4 (1935-36 and 1936-37).  If we include 1934-35 the 3 year total is 55-a 3 year ratter!  We’d need less than 18ish for the rest of the season to better that.

That's easily doable. What does Boston have so far? 9 in. Have to double it.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Is there such a statistic?   Anyway a quick eyeball of the data says the number is 39.4 (1935-36 and 1936-37).  If we include 1934-35 the 3 year total is 55-a 3 year ratter!  We’d need less than 18ish for the rest of the season to better that.

The record 2 year futility is actually 34.8" in 1979-80 and 1980-81....amd since last year had 12.4", this year would need 22.3" to set a new record. So BOS needs to have less than or equal to 13.2" the rest of the way to set a new record.

[Damage In Tolland]

This was a winter for Alaska . They have crushed it since late October. Almost nonstop. When they get winter .. the northeast typically doesn’t . It’s been unrelenting up there