Damage In Tolland Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Not around here. I’ve had 15.75” this winter . All of that in Jan. Imagine if we had even had a couple lighter events in Nov/ Dec. Makes a huge difference when evaluating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 7 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: Your such an Ass!!! Lol Never said I'm not going to come in and out to see what's going on. Just don't have much to say as far as any storms coming in. But then again, you and your sidekick Allsnow like to bring your sarcasm and Weenie symbols ( although I'm kind of starting to like it more and more though as I wouldn't expect anything less from you guys ) It’s not my fault it isn’t snowing in your backyard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: We had to rely upon Jan and Feb to make up for Dec loss. Guess what .. it failed . You need snow in Nov and Dec you're backing the truck up to Nov now? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: I’ve had 15.75” this winter . All of that in Jan. Imagine if we had even had a couple lighter events in Nov/ Dec. Makes a huge difference when evaluating I had 1.3" in December from that OE deal. Some areas 3-4" to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChangeofSeasonsWX Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 We have had lots of late season biggies in the past. Not saying that will happen this year but the potential is definitely there. Sucks that it won't stick around for long but it's better than nothing at this point. I mean, March 1956 happened so ya never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Winters are getting shorter and shorter…and warmer and warmer. Capitalizing on good patterns is becoming more and more important. When we don’t, this happens. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 40 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: If I equal January output from February, I am above average. I would need like 5" in March to finish climo. I get what he means, though....no one likes punting the holiday season. 41 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, if we scored big in February, then the season would be fine from a statistical standpoint...I understand you like to get snowfall early during solar nadir. That said, I am dissapionted February is a punt through mid month. 34 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: You guys missing the point I'm not missing anything. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 31 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: We had to rely upon Jan and Feb to make up for Dec loss. Guess what .. it failed . You need snow in Nov and Dec It failed for some, sure. But it doesn't mean those other months HAVE to make up for them. It's not the way winter is usually work here. Plus it's been my experience getting snow too early in the season is a bad Omen for the rest of the year with the exception of years like say 95/96, and iirc 92/93 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 hour ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Have you ever read the books Early American Winters Vol 1 & 2? I haven’t but may have to take a look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 20 minutes ago, UnitedWx said: It failed for some, sure. But it doesn't mean those other months HAVE to make up for them. It's not the way winter is usually work here. Plus it's been my experience getting snow too early in the season is a bad Omen for the rest of the year with the exception of years like say 95/96, and iirc 92/93 I think we are just talking about different things . I’m mainly referring to the talk that in December we don’t normally get much snow. And then the next sentence says something like” Jan and Feb are our Climo friendly time of year to get snow.. so I’m fine with punting December”.. It’s that line of thinking that is like nails on a chalkboard. No Timmy it doesn’t work like that lol .. Not directing that you .. just those types of posts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 I think December snow is between 20-25% of my seasonal climo so while a BN month is ok a total shutout makes reaching climo a tough hill to climb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 We’ve made up for bad Decembers many times. It sucks to lose any of the winter months, but it happens, and sometimes you make up ground, and sometimes you don’t. Some of these comments are just downright ridiculous. So we know without a shadow of a doubt, that the next 16 days that bring us to 2/14, are gone? Is that we’re saying? Punting as some like to say the next 16 days huh…..modeling is that accurate 8, and 10 and 16 days out? Lmao. What a place. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I think December snow is between 20-25% of my seasonal climo so while a BN month is ok a total shutout makes reaching climo a tough hill to climb. And if we had just a little decent fortune this last month,…it wouldn’t have mattered either. So there’s two sides of the coin there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: I think December snow is between 20-25% of my seasonal climo so while a BN month is ok a total shutout makes reaching climo a tough hill to climb. 75 % of my 12 inch Dec average falls in the last week. Add 1 inch in Nov and the 3 until the last week and it's 4 out of a yearly 60 from Nov to Dec 24th so what 7%. Biggest percentage is Jan 25th to March 14th. We can and have multiple times gotten the great majority of seasonal from the last week of Jan on. The year is aggravation plus and a ratter but rather than the norm it's an outlier as much as 2015 was. 120 inches then and 10 inches now. How averages are made. Shit happens 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChangeofSeasonsWX Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: We’ve made up for bad Decembers many times. It sucks to lose any of the winter months, but it happens, and sometimes you make up ground, and sometimes you don’t. Some of these comments are just downright ridiculous. So we know without a shadow of a doubt, that the next 16 days that bring us to 2/14, are gone? Is that we’re saying? Punting as some like to say the next 16 days huh…..modeling is that accurate 8, and 10 and 16 days out? Lmao. What a place. Yep some people never learn lmao People get way too emotionally invested and it clouds their judgment. Models aren't even close to being accurate and people are already throwing out the next 2+ weeks. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: We’ve made up for bad Decembers many times. It sucks to lose any of the winter months, but it happens, and sometimes you make up ground, and sometimes you don’t. Some of these comments are just downright ridiculous. So we know without a shadow of a doubt, that the next 16 days that bring us to 2/14, are gone? Is that we’re saying? Punting as some like to say the next 16 days huh…..modeling is that accurate 8, and 10 and 16 days out? Lmao. What a place. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Deal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 75 % of my 12 inch Dec average falls in the last week. Add 1 inch in Nov and the 3 until the last week and it's 4 out of a yearly 60 from Nov to Dec 24th so what 7%. Biggest percentage is Jan 25th to March 14th. We can and have multiple times gotten the great majority of seasonal from the last week of Jan on. The year is aggravation plus and a ratter but rather than the norm it's an outlier as much as 2015 was. 120 inches then and 10 inches now. How averages are made. Shit happens Agree 100%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 hour ago, Snowcrazed71 said: Your such an Ass!!! Lol Never said I'm not going to come in and out to see what's going on. Just don't have much to say as far as any storms coming in. But then again, you and your sidekick Allsnow like to bring your sarcasm and Weenie symbols ( although I'm kind of starting to like it more and more though as I wouldn't expect anything less from you guys ) I think there will be a few more shots, just not sure how well your area especially will make of it. Obviously it's peak snow climo for the next few weeks, but without any meaningful arctic cold lurking in Canada it's difficult to get much snow with any given system. (outside of interior elevations obviously) 2m and 850 <3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 31 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I haven’t but may have to take a look. Great books! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Trying to get back into the swing of things but I do think the first half of February is more likely to be cooked than not...not just locally, but across the country as well. We may favor sfc high pressure systems (and large ones) being a fixture. But this is just the first half of February. I could see the pattern becoming more active during the second half of the month. Some signals we could see a split pattern evolve. But one worry is we are starting to hedge towards the wrong side of climo and if Canada becomes flooded with milder air it may be difficult to re-load Arctic air into Canada. We can certainly still win in this, but it becomes more difficult because you just need more to go right. Maybe we ca re-load some blocking later into the month or early March. I am a bit bummed how things have turned out and bummed about the prospects for February. After about mid-March I will be ready for spring/summer. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 34 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I think we are just talking about different things . I’m mainly referring to the talk that in December we don’t normally get much snow. And then the next sentence says something like” Jan and Feb are our Climo friendly time of year to get snow.. so I’m fine with punting December”.. It’s that line of thinking that is like nails on a chalkboard. No Timmy it doesn’t work like that lol .. Said almost no one. Crummy Decembers usually lead to BN snow for the whole season, but it's not 100%. Panic and/or giving up on winter when December snow is lacking seems silly. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 5 minutes ago, tamarack said: Said almost no one. Crummy Decembers usually lead to BN snow for the whole season, but it's not 100%. Panic and/or giving up on winter when December snow is lacking seems silly. Well you and I agree. Look at all the posts after mine that don’t care about December snow lol. Point remains.A snowy December is needed for a great winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 I'm not sure I totally buy the notion that crummy December's usually lead to below-average season's. I think most of our higher end winters usually occur because of a prolific 4-6 week stretch. I would love to explore the data but the snow database pisses me off so much I can't even use it. But I would love to know the following: For the big climo sites across the region, for each of their top 5 snowiest winters, how much (or what percentage) of that came within a certain stretch. Was it 2014-2015 when Boston got like 100''+ of snow? Literally like 80% (or more) probably came in a 4-5 week stretch. What would really help put winters into perspective is knowing how many events (defined by some accumulation value) on average occur each winter. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Well you and I agree. Look at all the posts after mine how cold don’t care about December snow lol. Point remains.A snowy December is needed for a great winter Nobody said that. But I don't panic like you if we lose it. It happens. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Nobody said that. But I don't panic like you if we lose it. It happens. Unfortunately it seems like it’s always going to happen moving forward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Same thing goes with tornado season in the Plains. Everyone remembers 2011 as a historic year in terms of tornadoes and a historic spring...but what many people probably don't remember is up until shit hit the fan later in April, the season was actually off to a very slow start and it may have even been on the historically quiet side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Unfortunately it seems like it’s always going to happen moving forward. Regardless, everyone agrees that it absolutely blows. I love a cold, snowy holiday season. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Congrats, Florida 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 12z GFS has 0" of snow the next 15 days.......... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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