Cyclone-68 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 This sucks. We may as well bring on the cloudy, 40’s and drizzle spring weather. At least that’s always consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 I think a good amount of it is crap luck. both Dec 2022 and this month could have featured massive storms if not for the random interplay of TPV lobes. there is no way to forecast that more than 5, maybe 7 days in advance, and it fucked both of those high end threats up. it's a shame, but it happens. I don't think it speaks to the potential of the pattern at large, though. this month was especially egregious. that was locked and loaded and the TPV split in the worst possible fashion. it's so frustrating, but we'll be back. the worm has to turn 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: What was his idea? He illustrated how the NE has a curious snow hole during -PDO El Niño seasons....not even necessarily due to huge warm departures....just a screw hole, of sorts....like 1973. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 7 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: This sucks. We may as well bring on the cloudy, 40’s and drizzle spring weather. At least that’s always consistent. Fucking blows. Not to bring down those who got snow, happy for them. Just incredibly bummed. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 8 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: This sucks. We may as well bring on the cloudy, 40’s and drizzle spring weather. At least that’s always consistent. We’ve had that all winter 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: He illustrated how the NE has a curious snow hole during -PDO El Niño seasons....not even necessarily due to huge warm departures....just a screw hole, of sorts....like 1973. Yeah but the sample size on that is exceedingly small, isn't it? I don't see how that would be predictive unless someone can illustrate a physical attribtution. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 BDR futility chart from Ralph Wx Obs on twitter. This type of stretch has happened before for BDR. Seems like the real anomaly is the extremely snowy stretch BDR had in the 2000s. Currently in the 729+ day mark without a 4”+ snowfall which is no where near the record which was 1508+ days in the 50s. It’s not uncommon there on the immediate shore to go a few years without a decent snowfall. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 hour ago, WinterWolf said: Maybe now that it looks boring, something pops up. We’ve had some nice looks the last month or so…with not much to show. Maybe now that it looks boring, we do better? Can’t get much worse for a lot of us. That is how I think about it. It’s sort of paradoxical. Perhaps, now we don’t have to obsess over what seems like an impending storm seven days out and instead we can just see what appears. Maybe Friday? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I’d like to hear Wills thoughts on Feb At what % do Medium range weeklies , Twitter Mets and ensembles have to fail *in the day 14 -21 time frame * that Amy mention of these to make a prognostication should be couched in a caveat that they are not of significant value at those lead times OR is there a case to be made that day 14++ ensembles have been worse than usual (I was under impression that range was never of much value regarding accuracy ) I don't have strong thoughts on Feb....it is typically our best month in El Nino, but the first week looks pretty quiet unless that D4-5 threat somehow comes back in more amped. Then who knows...pattern looks like it wants to reshuffle to favorable by mid-month, but we'll see. We do look like we're going from phase 7 to phase 8 on MJO which should help constructively interfere with the pattern....amp up that aleutian low to spike heights out west....but again, I wouldn't be confident until we're closer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 5 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: BDR futility chart from Ralph Wx Obs on twitter. This type of stretch has happened before for BDR. Seems like the real anomaly is the extremely snowy stretch BDR had in the 2000s. Currently in the 729+ day mark without a 4”+ snowfall which is no where near the record which was 1508+ days in the 50s. It’s not uncommon there on the immediate shore to go a few years without a decent snowfall. I actually find it funny that their second place streak on 4"+ got broken because of an April snowstorm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 27 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: This sucks. We may as well bring on the cloudy, 40’s and drizzle spring weather. At least that’s always consistent. You must have missed last week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 42 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: “The Hard Winter” of 1779-1780 – Emerging Revolutionary War Era It’s just incredible to me that the eastern US had this level of sustained cold. The west must’ve been an absolute blowtorch. “Every saltwater inlet from North Carolina to Canada froze over completely. In fact, New York Harbor froze over with ice so thick that British soldiers were able to march from Manhattan to Staten Island.” 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 31 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: BDR futility chart from Ralph Wx Obs on twitter. This type of stretch has happened before for BDR. Seems like the real anomaly is the extremely snowy stretch BDR had in the 2000s. Currently in the 729+ day mark without a 4”+ snowfall which is no where near the record which was 1508+ days in the 50s. It’s not uncommon there on the immediate shore to go a few years without a decent snowfall. Thanks. This happens…it’s unfortunate when it does, but it does. Nothing anybody can do, but just get through it. Maybe something breaks soon for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 46 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: This sucks. We may as well bring on the cloudy, 40’s and drizzle spring weather. At least that’s always consistent. It’s already been that here for the past week lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: It’s just incredible to me that the eastern US had this level of sustained cold. The west must’ve been an absolute blowtorch. “Every saltwater inlet from North Carolina to Canada froze over completely. In fact, New York Harbor froze over with ice so thick that British soldiers were able to march from Manhattan to Staten Island.” Have you ever read the books Early American Winters Vol 1 & 2? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 2 hours ago, Torch Tiger said: Looks for a while It could be Stein until May and it would still be wet. Fingers crossed... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: It’s been awful 15 inches of rain here since 12/1 Summer 2023 invaded our winter… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 I’ve said it over and over .. you cannot lose the winter month of December and expect to make up for it in Jan and Feb. That’s the worst thought process and you see it over and over here. You have to have winter and snow in Dec. You have 3 winter months . Losing the first one makes it impossible 4 1 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 59 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah but the sample size on that is exceedingly small, isn't it? I don't see how that would be predictive unless someone can illustrate a physical attribtution. I get that, but you can say that about seasonal forecasting in general.....part of the appeal to me is recognizing themes and tendency within analog seasons, so I give him credit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’ve said it over and over .. you cannot lose the winter month of December and except to make up for it in Jan and Feb. That’s the worst thought process and you see it over and over here. You have to have winter and snow in Dec. You have 3 winter months . Losing the first one makes it impossible We’ve done that many times before. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’ve said it over and over .. you cannot lose the winter month of December and except to make up for it in Jan and Feb. That’s the worst thought process and you see it over and over here. You have to have winter and snow in Dec. You have 3 winter months . Losing the first one makes it impossible Well, if we scored big in February, then the season would be fine from a statistical standpoint...I understand you like to get snowfall early during solar nadir. That said, I am dissapionted February is a punt through mid month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: We’ve done that many times before. If I equal January output from February, I am above average. I would need like 5" in March to finish climo. I get what he means, though....no one likes punting the holiday season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: We’ve done that many times before. No we haven’t. Sure you can get 2 months that are snowy. I mean winter is already short enough. You can’t just think you’ll make it up. It doesn’t work that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: No we haven’t. Sure you can get 2 months that are snowy. I mean winter is already short enough. You can’t just think you’ll make it up. It doesn’t work that way 2014, 1968, 1957, 1965, to name several.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 2014, 1968, 1957, 1965, to name several.... You guys missing the point 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Since I don't know how to quote the text over from another sub on Tapatalk, linking [mention=525]OHweather[/mention] 's post from the Great Lakes Ohio Valley sub-forum: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/59779-Winter-2023/24-Medium/Long-Range-Discussion&do=findComment&comment=7185737 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’ve said it over and over .. you cannot lose the winter month of December and expect to make up for it in Jan and Feb. That’s the worst thought process and you see it over and over here. You have to have winter and snow in Dec. You have 3 winter months . Losing the first one makes it impossible And I've said it over and over... more often than not for most of SNE we don't usually get much in December. If we do it's usually the last week or so. If we didn't have this c*ck blocked decent pattern this year it would likely be a different story 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 2 minutes ago, UnitedWx said: And I've said it over and over... more often than not for most of SNE we don't usually get much in December. If we do it's usually the last week or so. If we didn't have this c*ck blocked decent pattern this year it would likely be a different story We had to rely upon Jan and Feb to make up for Dec loss. Guess what .. it failed . You need snow in Nov and Dec 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 3 hours ago, Torch Tiger said: Cya next "winter"! Byyeeeee Your such an Ass!!! Lol Never said I'm not going to come in and out to see what's going on. Just don't have much to say as far as any storms coming in. But then again, you and your sidekick Allsnow like to bring your sarcasm and Weenie symbols ( although I'm kind of starting to like it more and more though as I wouldn't expect anything less from you guys ) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: We had to rely upon Jan and Feb to make up for Dec loss. Guess what .. it failed . You need snow in Nov and Dec Not around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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