Allsnow Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That’s def a +PNA. Looks where the anomalies are….low anomalies S of the Aleutians and higher anomalies in western Canada. It’s split flow though which is why we see the lower height anomalies in California and the southwest. That can be a great pattern for us if there’s cold around but we’d prob want to sharpen the ridge a little more to lower the heights over the northeast. You would know better then me, but imo it’s a -epo pattern with a trough stuck in the sw. Not to over analyze but all the cold anomalies are in the southwest. It looks like if the pattern was rolled forward it would improve with hgts rising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 23 Author Share Posted January 23 Shockingly, EPS backed up the GFS with a split flow +PNASent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 You didn’t post the 00z GEFS though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 23 Author Share Posted January 23 You didn’t post the 00z GEFS though Here Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 GEFs and gfs face plant 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 hour ago, dendrite said: You didn’t post the 00z GEFS though It’s a torch look. He drunk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 27 minutes ago, bluewave said: Even in this new era of warmth extremes, what is showing up to start February is way beyond what we have ever seen during an El Niño February. The highly amplified MJO over the WPAC is flipping the script. This would be extreme for December let alone in February when El Niño’s are supposed to be cold. Ridiculous how far into Canada the above freezing line gets pushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 23 Author Share Posted January 23 Could be worseSent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 44 minutes ago, Allsnow said: It’s a torch of historic proportions, complete 180 to the PV overhead in the Midwest 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: It’s a torch look. He drunk. Ineedsnow and primshine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Prestige Worldwide is still wet behind the ears.. with a continued lack of snow he will be a grizzled and jaded member of the board in no time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 granted, you'd end up in quite a favorable pattern around the 10-15th as that SW trough slips under the Canadian blocking and the Aleutian Low maintains the -EPO/+PNA, but yeah, it would torch for a week before then. wave breaking could also lead to a -NAO. this is the same evolution extended guidance has, and it's similar to what happened this month when the Pacific jet overextended in late Dec not sure if anyone really cares about any of that, though 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Weenie shine productions… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 13 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: granted, you'd end up in quite a favorable pattern around the 10-15th as that SW trough slips under the Canadian blocking and the Aleutian Low maintains the -EPO/+PNA, but yeah, it would torch for a week before then. wave breaking could also lead to a -NAO. this is the same evolution extended guidance has, and it's similar to what happened this month when the Pacific jet overextended in late Dec not sure if anyone really cares about any of that, though Temps are shot....but funny thing is most of the region can still end up above normal snowfall if we grab one or two big dogs later in February and/or early March. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 hour ago, qg_omega said: It’s a torch of historic proportions, complete 180 to the PV overhead in the Midwest I was deinitely wrong about how much time we have spent in warm patterns, but I still think the snowfall can work out. I feel like this replica (Decemeber-January) pattern sequence that we are going to see unfold will be much more explosive and fruitfil late season than it was in earlier in the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 18 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: granted, you'd end up in quite a favorable pattern around the 10-15th as that SW trough slips under the Canadian blocking and the Aleutian Low maintains the -EPO/+PNA, but yeah, it would torch for a week before then. wave breaking could also lead to a -NAO. this is the same evolution extended guidance has, and it's similar to what happened this month when the Pacific jet overextended in late Dec not sure if anyone really cares about any of that, though I'm pumped. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm pumped. this winter was always going to come down to one or two big ones. I don't see anything throwing a wrench in that right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: this winter was always going to come down to one or two big ones. I don't see anything throwing a wrench in that right now Its been warmer than you and I expected...no doubt. But the snow potential has been on point IMO....just a bit unlucky in December and then with the big pattern last week. And yes, that was an awful pattern in December and it should have sucked for snowfall, but the fact that interior SNE got just about literally skunked was a bit unfortunate....normally those spots would still sneak one half-decent event. Last week was definitely bad luck. But I expected a rough December and January for the coast in terms of snowfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its been warmer than you and I expected...no doubt. But the snow potential has been on point IMO....just a bit unlucky in December and then with the big pattern last week. And yes, that was an awful pattern in December and it should have sucked for snowfall, but the fact that interior SNE got just about literally skunked was a bit unfortunate....normally those spots would still sneak one half-decent event. Last week was definitely bad luck. But I expected a rough December and January for the coast in terms of snowfall. it's annoying that the warm periods are SO warm that they skew things. i feel like the overall tenor of the winter has been close to the same as forecast... shit Dec with next to no hope, a transitionary Jan that's still warmer than normal, and then a good to great Feb. the +EAMT just pushed things back a week or so, but there's no way to see that in November 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 I don't think anyone can really claim a full-fledged victory so far, though....this certaintly has not looked like a super el Nino, despite being very warm....I think both sides have had some wins and losses. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its been warmer than you and I expected...no doubt. But the snow potential has been on point IMO....just a bit unlucky in December and then with the big pattern last week. And yes, that was an awful pattern in December and it should have sucked for snowfall, but the fact that interior SNE got just about literally skunked was a bit unfortunate....normally those spots would still sneak one half-decent event. Last week was definitely bad luck. But I expected a rough December and January for the coast in terms of snowfall. I don't see how I sniff close to normal at this point. I'm not 100% on a big back half of Feb. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: it's annoying that the warm periods are SO warm that they skew things. i feel like the overall tenor of the winter has been close to the same as forecast... shit Dec with next to no hope, a transitionary Jan that's still warmer than normal, and then a good to great Feb. the +EAMT just pushed things back a week or so, but there's no way to see that in November I feel like @qg_omegamay have had a point when he said that we need to do a better job accounting for GW with respect to the seasonal temp forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, CoastalWx said: I don't see how I sniff close to normal at this point. I'm not 100% on a big back half of Feb. We just don’t know how long the transition will take to a cooler pattern in the east. We are getting a repeat of last December in the next 2-3 weeks then see what happens mid month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I don't see how I sniff close to normal at this point. I'm not 100% on a big back half of Feb. You average 50"? How much do you have? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, Allsnow said: We just don’t know how long the transition will take to a cooler pattern in the east. We are getting a repeat of last December in the next 2-3 weeks then see what happens mid month. This is fair. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 I really wish that @bluewavewould make seasnal attempts because I feel like he may have been closest overall, but its tough to commit to that when he only does two week intervals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: This is fair. It’s just not ideal to send all our cold to the other side of the globe halfway through the season. I just hope we have time to recover from that beat the coast. NNE with get their snow regardless 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Raindance has been decent, too, but too cold...like most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You average 50"? How much do you have? I think he’s still below 10”. He’s gonna need several good sized storms…esp if 1/29-30 is a no-go there. Things can happens fast in any favorable pattern but there’s never any guarantees. Sometimes you get 2-3 double digit storms in a 2 week period but other times you might just get one storm or maybe you get two smaller ones or maybe you get skunked despite a good look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You average 50"? How much do you have? Around 9" I think. If you use the more long term (not 30 yr) probably more mid 40s avg. The only way I may entertain it is if we get 6+ next week. Otherwise I don't see anything that says "wow" to me for a good Feb at the moment. Sure it could happen..but just what I see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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