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It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread


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5 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Yeah, may as well just wrap this up and in another month or so  I can start tracking tick bites.

My thoughts too…I hear half of February is flushed already here on January 28th, so maybe we can flush the whole month by 1:30 today, and then go straight to 65-70 by March 1st.  

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro is kind of interesting for eastern areas next friday night/Saturday. Drops that ULL straight south and it’s really cold/unstable profile. 

How bout us poor western folks? It’s always astern areas…WTF? 

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1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

My thoughts too…I hear half of February is flushed already here on January 28th, so maybe we can flush the whole month by 1:30 today, and then go straight to 65-70 by March 1st.  

I'm all ears if someone has a different take, but I don't see how anything significant gets to us with that block where it is.

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12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

How bout us poor western folks? It’s always astern areas…WTF? 

I mean if this drops further west then it would be a pretty decent storm. Unlikely at this time but it’s been pretty volatile on guidance. But even some steady light stuff with that temp profile, it could add up to several fluffy inches. 

 

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I mean if this drops further west then it would be a pretty decent storm. Unlikely at this time but it’s been pretty volatile on guidance. But even some steady light stuff with that temp profile, it could add up to several fluffy inches. 

 

I notice your saying drops…is this like a clipper type thing?  
 

Man, we need to catch some type of break here. 

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Just now, WinterWolf said:

I notice your saying drops…is this like a clipper type thing?  
 

Man, we need to catch some type of break here. 

It’s not a classic clipper because those come out of NW or at least central Canada…this is dropping from almost up near Baffin Island. It’s an exotic pattern…I am not counting on anything right now, but it is within the envelope of possibilities to see at least a few inches. 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s not a classic clipper because those come out of NW or at least central Canada…this is dropping from almost up near Baffin Island. It’s an exotic pattern…I am not counting on anything right now, but it is within the envelope of possibilities to see at least a few inches. 

Ya I hear ya. I mean c’mon Mother Nature…throw us a little bone for god sakes. 

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47 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Few saw this coming

image.thumb.jpeg.7a9c8f5dbbfe32b4d52958729cad96f7.jpeg

I mean the rate of warming is undeniable. It's also becoming normalized. 

People thought December wasn't that warm because it wasn't like 2015. 

Ok but it was still #2-3 all time. Sorry it didn't have +15 departures

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1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

I mean the rate of warming is undeniable. It's also becoming normalized. 

People thought December wasn't that warm because it wasn't like 2015. 

Ok but it was still #2-3 all time. Sorry it didn't have +15 departures

I don't think I saw anyone not feeling as though December was an absolute torch.

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Unless the larger synopsis changes the best winter storm enthusiasts can hope for toward the end of the week is a 'hook-and-latter' scenario - a lesser known storm type because they seldom set up. They're just exceptionally rare. 

The last good one I recall in fact may be that February event in 1997 ( I think it was the year).  Out of seemingly nowhere the then ETA model, which only went out to 48 hours, came in on the FOUS 12z grid with something like 1.4" of total liquid equiv. at Logan in 55 mph NNE rips with temp crashing through the 20s, by that same late afternoon.  This, from previous periods having little or nothing happening at all. Oops! 

A very potent S/W knifed down along N-->S azimuth.. probably why it was largely if not entirely missed by previous global guidance ( models were not as advanced as present era).  The 500 closed off and the cyclone that formed ..., doing so already well SE of eastern L.I., got captured, and while bombing it moves NW.  This is different from "back-lash" Schwoegology - not the same thing.  It's basically taking a normal SW-->NE moving precip wall, but having it move SE--> NW..  Imagine the standard model and rotate it 90 deg... 

Winter storm warnings went up for eastern MA in a rush.  Blizzards for SE zones and the lower Cape.  Walter Drag was writing the AFDs that day... 

As it were, it never did get far NW ...at least, not as far as the UML/Merrimack Valley area in Lowell. We had undulating sky of snow plumes that occasionally shat shattered sparsely distributed aggregates in the gelid wind.  It was like 15 F with that virga bulging motion overhead, and if I wasn't so pissed off for that sickening feeling that that was all we were going to get, I might have thought that spectacle was fascinating to bear witness...  A specter that really went exotic at sun set when the sky exploded into this fiery orange and salmon exposure of those undulating plumes, under-lit by the setting sun.  They almost looked like the plasma roils of fire...  But, the 12 degrees by then made it abundantly clear the visage had nothing to do with heat.

I think they did get upwards of a foot in those SE zones though.   

I'm not saying that's happening ... but, if I were going to prescribe a pattern that I thought might lead to the creation of a hook-and-latter scenario, that might be it.   Exceptionally high meridian bias there.

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15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Unless the larger synopsis changes the best winter storm enthusiasts can hope for toward the end of the week is a 'hook-and-latter' scenario - a lesser known storm type because they seldom set up. They're just exceptionally rare. 

The last good one I recall in fact may be that February event in 1997 ( I think it was the year).  Out of seemingly nowhere the then ETA model, which only went out to 48 hours, came in on the FOUS 12z grid with something like 1.4" of total liquid equiv. at Logan in 55 mph NNE rips with temp crashing through the 20s, by that same late afternoon.  This, from previous periods having little or nothing happening at all. Oops! 

A very potent S/W knifed down along N-->S azimuth.. probably why it was largely if not entirely missed by previous global guidance ( models were not as advanced as present era).  The 500 closed off and the cyclone that formed ..., doing so well SE of eastern L.I., got captured, and while bombing it moves NW.  This is different from "back-lash" Schwoegology - not the same thing.  It's basically taking a normal S-->N moving precip wall, but having it move SE--> NW..  Take the standard model and rotate it 90 deg... 

Winter storm warnings went up for eastern MA in a rush.  Blizzards for SE zones and the lower Cape.  Walter Drag was writing the AFDs that day... 

As it were, it never did get far NW ...at least, not as far as the UML/Merrimack Valley area in Lowell. We had undulating sky of snow plumes that occasionally shat shattered sparsely distributed aggregates in the gelid wind.  It was like 15 F with that virga bulging motion, and if I wasn't so pissed off for that sickening feeling that that was all what we were going to get, I might have thought that spectacle was fascinating to bear witness...  A specter that really went exotic at sun set when the sky exploded into this fiery orange and salmon exposure of those undulating plumes, under-lit by the setting sun.  They almost looked like the plasma roils of fire...  But, the 12 degrees by then made it abundantly clear the visage had nothing to do with heat.

I think they did get upwards of a foot in those SE zones though.   

I'm not saying that's happening ... but, if I were going to prescribe a pattern that I thought might lead to the creation of a hook-and-latter scenario, that might be it.   Exceptionally high meridian bias there.

I think it was February 1999.

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