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It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread


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2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I need another 12" to tie 2015-16 which is the worse.

I don’t remember well enough and wasn’t taking records then. I just recall that December being an unbelievable torch, even torchier than this one. But maybe I’m wrong. There must have been a decent stretch in that year if you got to 50”. I just don’t remember it. 
 
 

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3 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said:

I don’t remember well enough and wasn’t taking records then. I just recall that December being an unbelievable torch, even torchier than this one. But maybe I’m wrong. There must have been a decent stretch in that year if you got to 50”. I just don’t remember it. 
 
 

Snowfall 2015-2016
Date Snowfall   Total                
11/23/15 0.50   50.10                
12/19/15 T                    
12/29/15 4.80                    
12/30/15 0.50                    
01/09/16 0.50                    
01/12/16 9.80                    
01/16/16 4.30                    
01/18/16 1.30                    
01/29/16 1.00                    
02/05/16 7.00                    
02/09/16 4.50                    
02/16/16 3.00                    
02/20/16 1.50                    
02/24/16 0.80                    
03/02/16 2.30                    
03/07/16 0.50                    
03/21/16 4.50                    
04/06/16 0.50                    
04/26/16 2.80                    
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8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The way things have been going, we will. :lol: But since we didn't see an El Nino pattern this winter, hopefully not.

Agreed on active....only question is will we top 200 IMO...which is a crucial number for me in terms of winter.

so we don't want the Ace to go above 200 or we do for better chance for east coast winter potential next season?

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27 minutes ago, dryslot said:

:( I spent the last 4 weeks in NW Maine where there was snow.

Screenshot 2024-02-26 184938.png

When I went snowmobiling in New Hampshire a couple weeks ago it was ok, not epic but enough. It snowed while were there, only a couple inches but looked and felt like winter.  It's represented in dark blue on your map. I just thought Northern Maine was close to average.

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1 minute ago, DavisStraight said:

When I went snowmobiling in New Hampshire a couple weeks ago it was ok, not epic but enough. It snowed while were there, only a couple inches but looked and felt like winter.  It's represented in dark blue on your map. I just thought Northern Maine was close to average.

No, I don't believe anyone is near avg up here.

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1 hour ago, NW_of_GYX said:

All time rat. Still think 15-16 was worse here though. Anyone have temp departures for DJF that year? 

This one isn’t even remotely close to 15-16 up here.  We’ve had several good storms and the mountain is already well past that winter’s totals.  We literally didn’t get a 4” event in town that year.  At least this year we’ve had snow cover pretty much most of the winter.

Back in late November and early December we were ripping off damaging paste events weekly, that was fun at least.

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1 hour ago, DavisStraight said:

When I went snowmobiling in New Hampshire a couple weeks ago it was ok, not epic but enough. It snowed while were there, only a couple inches but looked and felt like winter.  It's represented in dark blue on your map. I just thought Northern Maine was close to average.

Looking at the rough colors on CoCoRAHS, they’ve had less than this area in VT has for seasonal snowfall.  We’ve been the luckiest despite insane departures.

IMG_8356.thumb.jpeg.d7574cc8975a83ed6aa7774a574ca220.jpeg

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2 hours ago, NW_of_GYX said:

All time rat. Still think 15-16 was worse here though. Anyone have temp departures for DJF that year? 

In terms of grooming, we have already surpassed all the grooming done in 15-16. There has been riding but obviously not consistent and not statewide. 

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11 hours ago, raindancewx said:

I've actually found a lot more predictive 'events' with La Nina than El Nino over the years.

A few examples:

Early heat waves in the West (ABQ first 90F high, where 1 is May 1, 31 is May 31, etc) in La Nina are highly correlated to cold winters in the Rockies/West for La Nina. This is from my outlook for 2022-23. I've always assumed this worked because it meant a coherent MJO wave in phase 4-5-6-7 was showing up around 5/1. At a standard 45 day MJO lag (more dark arts, i.e. counting), that turns to 6/15, 7/30, 9/15, 10/30, 12/15, 1/30, 3/15 which indicates that 4-5-6-7 will show up several times in winter, when it is a cold signal here. MJO 5 is generally cold here early on (Nov-Jan).

22-37019fdcd3.jpg

La Nina cold snaps in the West are also highly tied to ACE in the Atlantic -

25-9fa9974380.jpg

In the absence of cold snaps in the West, the cold either isn't anywhere in America, or it is going to the East. But really for the East, the high ACE thing is more of a good snow year indicator than a cold indicator.

 

23 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 The following analysis of the top 10 ACE seasons suggests to me that a weak to moderate correlation of ACE to BOS/NYC snowfall the next cold season quite possibly exists, especially BOS, though ACE definitely shouldn’t be weighted heavily:


Top 10 ACE years/snowfall following cold season

1933 NYC: 52.0”; BOS: 62.7”; mod La Nina

2005 NYC: 40.0”; BOS: 39.9”; wk La Nina

1893 NYC: 39.2”; BOS: 64.0”; mod La Nina

1926 NYC: 22.3”; BOS: 41.1”; neutral

1995 NYC: 75.6”; BOS: 107.6”; mod La Nina

2004 NYC: 41.0”; BOS: 86.6”; wk El Niño

2017 NYC: 40.9”; BOS: 59.9”; mod La Niña 

1950 NYC: 9.3”; BOS: 29.7”; neutral

1961 NYC: 18.1”; BOS: 44.7”; neutral

1998 NYC: 12.7”; BOS: 36.4”; strng La Nina

 

AVG NYC for top 10 ACE:  35.1” vs 28.5” mean of all years since 1868-9 or 23% above mean snowfall

2 MAN (including record heaviest), 4 AN, 0 NN, 2 BN, 2 MBN; 60% of top 10 ACE seasons had above snowfall median to follow

—————————————-

AVG BOS for top 10 ACE: 57.3” vs 43.1” mean all years since 1890-2 or 33% above mean snowfall

2 MAN (both in top 5), 3 AN, 4 NN, 1 BN, 0 MBN; 70% of top 10 ACE seasons had above snowfall median to follow

 

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45 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

20F this morning and already 41F by 9am.  Recovered 20F in a couple hours lol.

yeah, I inadvertently posted the 'diurnal watch day' in the March thread.

Today should be right up there.  It's yesterday's air mass plus 4 or 5 just guessin'. 

MAV was 58-ish down here BDL-FIT-ASH.  Good candidate day for typical solar transition season machine numbers being too low, however much notwithstanding. 

26 -> 45 so far. 

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

20F this morning and already 41F by 9am.  Recovered 20F in a couple hours lol.

I stopped at the car wash on the commute this morning to beat the inevitable crowds later today.

Good chance the fields next to 100 north of Stowe will be snow free by the end of the day today.

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