Ginx snewx Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 3 hours ago, Supernovice said: I’m not in the business of picking spots on the globe to fit my preconceived narrative but you do you. Sensy huh. I got pretty baked in AK once. AKTF 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted February 26 Author Share Posted February 26 Someone we know may need to pull their sled all the way to hudson bay next season.Only a +1C anomaly at 850 and 2m, for Dec/Jan, that is still cold enough to snowSent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted February 26 Author Share Posted February 26 Also sorry I been off the forum the last few weeks, wife is dealing with some medical issues that have sapped up my full attention (and looks like I got to spend most of March away from her while she sees specialists in NY).Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 40 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said: Also sorry I been off the forum the last few weeks, wife is dealing with some medical issues that have sapped up my full attention (and looks like I got to spend most of March away from her while she sees specialists in NY). Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Hope everything goes well. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AstronomyEnjoyer Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 53 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said: Also sorry I been off the forum the last few weeks, wife is dealing with some medical issues that have sapped up my full attention (and looks like I got to spend most of March away from her while she sees specialists in NY). Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Don't apologize! Your wife's health is infinitely more important than this forum. I hope everything works out well! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 1 hour ago, Prismshine Productions said: Also sorry I been off the forum the last few weeks, wife is dealing with some medical issues that have sapped up my full attention (and looks like I got to spend most of March away from her while she sees specialists in NY). Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk I hope that she gets well soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 Wednesday night looks wild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 Low 23.5° Looks like one more frigid day coming up in the next 10 day period with that being Thursday after the fropa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 22 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Wednesday night looks wild I suppose after 3 months of failed winter, anything looks wild. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Wednesday night looks wild Might be 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Might be Rain to Snow and huge roars .. damage 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Rain to Snow and huge roars .. damage Meh snow won’t be anything. Wind is intriguing for a few hours after fropa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Meh snow won’t be anything. Wind is intriguing for a few hours after fropa. Let’s gust to 70 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 3 hours ago, Prismshine Productions said: Only a +1C anomaly at 850 and 2m, for Dec/Jan, that is still cold enough to snow Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Yea, you give me an awful La Nina set up and an awful El Nino set up, then I'll take the shitty La Nina....at least there is a better bet of having cold near by. If its a crap El Nino, then the entire continent is furnaced. That said, I think we need to pray for an extremely active tropical season for any hope of avoiding another shit year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 About an inch dusting last night coating the trees this morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoCORH4L Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 40 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Meh snow won’t be anything. Wind is intriguing for a few hours after fropa. I dunno, box is hitting it pretty hard.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 11 minutes ago, powderfreak said: About an inch dusting last night coating the trees this morning. 0.7" of 35:1 fluff in the pre-dawn hours, thus passing 2006 for least snowy February. Wednesday's RA should push us past 2012 for driest, so terrible month for RA/SN but no records - lose-lose. We'll end up close to 2010's mildest February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 34 minutes ago, NoCORH4L said: I dunno, box is hitting it pretty hard.... Maybe an inch or a bit more in the hills? I wouldn't call that hitting it hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 GFS and NAM BUFKIT look like 40-50kt gusts in a lot of areas. Potentially 55kts post fropa. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, you give me an awful La Nina set up and an awful El Nino set up, then I'll take the shitty La Nina....at least there is a better bet of having cold near by. If its a crap El Nino, then the entire continent is furnaced. That said, I think we need to pray for an extremely active tropical season for any hope of avoiding another shit year. Not if we believe Lanse Bosart's paper related/correlating polar index bias subsequent to recurving tropical cyclone frequency. It's pretty clear in the data, and also conceptual/intuitive why it may be so ... but dumping repeating TCs over the western oceanic Basins lends to strengthening the polar vortex. Baffin Island Low ( for ex) and that's more canonical to +NAO. I saw his presentation on this at a conference some 25 years ago... not sure if there was anything on the matter since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: GFS and NAM BUFKIT look like 40-50kt gusts in a lot of areas. Potentially 55kts post fropa. Just a coarse look at the spatial layout, it appears the more likely time for trash can lids taking flight is immediately post fropa. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Just a coarse look at the spatial layout, it appears the more likely time for trash can lids taking flight is immediately post fropa. There's a good 2-3 hr window post fropa for sure. Then it might perk up Thursday morning with daytime heating per soundings. Anytime you have near 50kts at 925 with CAA I'm intrigued. Also some strong gusts just away from immediate south coast ahead of roaring SW LLJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Not if we believe Lanse Bosart's paper related/correlating polar index bias subsequent to recurving tropical cyclone frequency. It's pretty clear in the data, and also conceptual/intuitive why it may be so ... but dumping repeating TCs over the western oceanic Basins lends to strengthening the polar vortex. Baffin Island Low ( for ex) and that's more canonical to +NAO. I saw his presentation on this at a conference some 25 years ago... not sure if there was anything on the matter since. The following analysis of the top 10 ACE seasons suggests to me that a weak to moderate correlation of ACE to BOS/NYC snowfall the next cold season quite possibly exists, especially BOS, though ACE definitely shouldn’t be weighted heavily: Top 10 ACE years/snowfall following cold season 1933 NYC: 52.0”; BOS: 62.7”; mod La Nina 2005 NYC: 40.0”; BOS: 39.9”; wk La Nina 1893 NYC: 39.2”; BOS: 64.0”; mod La Nina 1926 NYC: 22.3”; BOS: 41.1”; neutral 1995 NYC: 75.6”; BOS: 107.6”; mod La Nina 2004 NYC: 41.0”; BOS: 86.6”; wk El Niño 2017 NYC: 40.9”; BOS: 59.9”; mod La Niña 1950 NYC: 9.3”; BOS: 29.7”; neutral 1961 NYC: 18.1”; BOS: 44.7”; neutral 1998 NYC: 12.7”; BOS: 36.4”; strng La Nina AVG NYC for top 10 ACE: 35.1” vs 28.5” mean of all years since 1868-9 or 23% above mean snowfall 2 MAN (including record heaviest), 4 AN, 0 NN, 2 BN, 2 MBN; 60% of top 10 ACE seasons had above snowfall median to follow —————————————- AVG BOS for top 10 ACE: 57.3” vs 43.1” mean all years since 1890-2 or 33% above mean snowfall 2 MAN (both in top 5), 3 AN, 4 NN, 1 BN, 0 MBN; 70% of top 10 ACE seasons had above snowfall median to follow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 I don’t pay attention to the correlation between ACE and winter seasons, but my initial thought as we approach tropical preseason is that the Atlantic will be historically (let’s say top 10 for now and choose your metric—it won’t matter IMO) active. Unlike the last few seasons which started with significant questions or mitigating factors to diminish potential, this coming season appears to be all systems go as long as we don’t see a lagging atmospheric response from the decaying Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 19 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I don’t pay attention to the correlation between ACE and winter seasons, but my initial thought as we approach tropical preseason is that the Atlantic will be historically (let’s say top 10 for now and choose your metric—it won’t matter IMO) active. Unlike the last few seasons which started with significant questions or mitigating factors to diminish potential, this coming season appears to be all systems go as long as we don’t see a lagging atmospheric response from the decaying Nino. The way things have been going, we will. But since we didn't see an El Nino pattern this winter, hopefully not. Agreed on active....only question is will we top 200 IMO...which is a crucial number for me in terms of winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, you give me an awful La Nina set up and an awful El Nino set up, then I'll take the shitty La Nina....at least there is a better bet of having cold near by. If its a crap El Nino, then the entire continent is furnaced. That said, I think we need to pray for an extremely active tropical season for any hope of avoiding another shit year. Agree 100% with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 20 hours ago, weathafella said: Get a window unit at least. They tend to be pretty inexpensive these days. My friend has a camp in Wakefield NH on a lake. He has had window units there for about 5 years. They're super efficient now as well. We have a 15,500 BTU 120 volt window unit (yes, 15,500) that does our first floor and have to run it all day because we have Chinchillas and they can't live over 70-75 degrees. Never had a bill over $250 in the summer and that includes a/c upstairs at night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 20 hours ago, Supernovice said: To this point… what’s the mechanism that *could* bring global temp anomalies back in line? We baked at a global scale this year- I’m not sure betting on a miraculous return to prior curve is a bet I’d make. Atmospheric seeding... IF you believe some of what's being proposed lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChangeofSeasonsWX Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 During hurricane season I follow the weather thread on Yale Climate Connections which used to be on Weather Underground. It seems like every single month they post the headline "X month was the Xth warmest on record". They've basically been saying that about every month for years now. I don't know how much of it is actual fact or if there is some sort of global warming agenda on that site. But in all the years that I've been following that forum, not ONCE have I ever seen a month or year pass that wasn't "record warm". I mean yeah the climate is obviously warming, but does that mean that we never have a single month pass that isn't record breaking globally? Just an average month? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The way things have been going, we will. But since we didn't see an El Nino pattern this winter, hopefully not. Agreed on actiive....only question is will we top 200 IMO...which is a crucial number for me in terms of winter. It's a pretty worthless number coming on Feb 26, but if I had to place odds on 200+ ACE (and for those not tuned into tropical it’s only occurred 8 times since 1851 and last happened in 2017) I’d put it at ~20% given what I see now. In an absolute sense that’s a small chance but measured against climo that’s a big number. As an aside, 1893 and 1926 are incredible ACE seasons (231 & 230) where there were only 12 and 11 NS respectively. Talk about degree of difficulty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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