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It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread


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2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Definitely must have been some regional variance there...  It's anecdotal but it was horrible down here.  You'd pull into your driveway, park the car, and in broad daylight sometimes even with the sun shining, the mosquitoes would immediately be bouncing off the windows of the car.  Closer to dusk you ran to the front door and hoped you didn't drop your keys fumbling around in haste because there'd already be several of them landing on your forearms, while the atonal chorus hummed around your ears.  

Ticks were everywhere, too.

Interesting because a couple of dozen miles to your west, I didn't feel like the mosquitoes were that bad.  Maybe I didn't go out at certain times of the day?  Deer flies were also non existent here compared to the typical year.   

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Mosquitos weren't bad at all last summer here. I traipsed around the woods often as well, and ended up never finding a tick on me (for what it's worth). The bugs that were popping up with above average frequency (and I still find them in the house on occasion) were Western Conifer Seed Bugs. They seem(ed) to be everywhere. 

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1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Interesting because a couple of dozen miles to your west, I didn't feel like the mosquitoes were that bad.  Maybe I didn't go out at certain times of the day?  Deer flies were also non existent here compared to the typical year.   

Last year was a great one with respect to the dearth of black flies.

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3 hours ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

Mosquitos weren't bad at all last summer here. I traipsed around the woods often as well, and ended up never finding a tick on me (for what it's worth). The bugs that were popping up with above average frequency (and I still find them in the house on occasion) were Western Conifer Seed Bugs. They seem(ed) to be everywhere. 

I just threw one of those out this morning, I was wondering what it was. Seen quite a few already this year.

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3 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Interesting because a couple of dozen miles to your west, I didn't feel like the mosquitoes were that bad.  Maybe I didn't go out at certain times of the day?  Deer flies were also non existent here compared to the typical year.   

Not bad at all here either kind of weird.. and for all the hiking I did never found a tick.. lots of snakes though flooded out near streams and ponds 

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What are we looking at? It’s a few flurries or snow showers after fropa. Don’t believe those flawed clowns. SV is taking the temps supportive of snow at a certain hour and calling all QPF before that as accumulating snow. But the problem is we’re going from 55 to 35 in 6hrs. That’s why you’re getting the fictitious tiger looking snow stripes where the front is positioned every 6hrs.

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16 minutes ago, dendrite said:

What are we looking at? It’s a few flurries or snow showers after fropa. Don’t believe those flawed clowns. SV is taking the temps supportive of snow at a certain hour and calling all QPF before that as accumulating snow. But the problem is we’re going from 55 to 35 in 6hrs. That’s why you’re getting the fictitious tiger looking snow stripes where the front is positioned every 6hrs.

Wow, do these maps really take all QPF from prior frame to current frame and assume that it's all at current frame temp profiles?. I assumed they used some variety of interpolation between frames to try to get a crude approximation of what was what. That could still explain tiger striping artifacts in quick hitting storms with wild temp swings.

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7 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

Wow, do these maps really take all QPF from prior frame to current frame and assume that it's all at current frame temp profiles?. I assumed they used some variety of interpolation between frames to try to get a crude approximation of what was what. That could still explain tiger striping artifacts in quick hitting storms with wild temp swings.

I drew the 6hrly fropa positions for you. You can see the highest snow totals are closest to the front position since it’s calling that whole 6hr period as snow, but the most remaining QPF is to the east. 

image.jpeg

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18 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I drew the 6hrly fropa positions for you. You can see the highest snow totals are closest to the front position since it’s calling that whole 6hr period as snow, but the most remaining QPF is to the east. 

image.jpeg

Let me correct that. Those aren’t the frontal positions, but rather the position of the R/S line at the 6hrly prog times. 

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50 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Let me correct that. Those aren’t the frontal positions, but rather the position of the R/S line at the 6hrly prog times. 

Now that you've given me a handle on what the error is, I've been sitting here for the past half hour drawing spatial and time domain graphs trying to conceptualize precisely how the error is occurring, haha. I've even drawn up a little meteorological grid model to try to visualize what would happen to each forecast point as a front washes over.

Bottom line is - that artifact drives me nuts. It's egregious as hell, and it seems like there should be a relatively easy way to ensure there is better handling on the assigning of precipitation type to QPF. However, I'm not so dumb that I don't realize that if it were really so easy to fix, folks much smarter than me would have already fixed it.

Thanks for helping explain it though!

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