Damage In Tolland Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 I know Cosgrove and Dick Tolleris had been going big winter . Did they ever pull the plug on that idea or sink in their ship? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Especially after next year we are going to enter into a stretch of a few years that will not feature much high latitude blocking at all IMO, so the extra tropical Pacific needs to improve. Good…we did fine without it for a long time. Very Overrated imo. Let’s improve the pacific some, and take our chances. Hard to tell at this point how next year will unfold..let alone anything after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Especially after next year we are going to enter into a stretch of a few years that will not feature much high latitude blocking at all IMO, so the extra tropical Pacific needs to improve. NNE should Be fine next winter with the Nina. It obviously can’t get any worst than this winter for that area. We are probably cooked down here if the PAC doesn’t improve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 It’s pretty easy to empirically check these spring claims. The mean temp increase for April/May since the middle 20th century is about 2F. We’ve definitely warmed. But in shorter timelines it will be a lot noisier. If you start from 12-15 years ago, then we have cooled in spring because we had some furnace springs like 2010, 2012, and even 2015 was a warm one after the historically cold Jan-Mar period. For anyone who grew up in the 1970s/1980s/1990s, they will remember colder springs because that period was colder than any period recently, individual years not withstanding. Unless you’re memory is etched in 1991 which was a record warm spring in many spots. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I know Cosgrove and Dick Tolleris had been going big winter . Did they ever pull the plug on that idea or sink in their ship? Cosgrove did not think this was going to be a "big" snow season along the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: NNE should Be fine next winter with the Nina. It obviously can’t get any worst than this winter for that area. We are probably cooked down here if the PAC doesn’t improve Agreed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 1 minute ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Cosgrove did not think this was going to be a "big" snow season along the east coast. He thought it would be better than this and he thought last year would be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It’s pretty easy to empirically check these spring claims. The mean temp increase for April/May since the middle 20th century is about 2F. We’ve definitely warmed. But in shorter timelines it will be a lot noisier. If you start from 12-15 years ago, then we have cooled in spring because we had some furnace springs like 2010, 2012, and even 2015 was a warm one after the historically cold Jan-Mar period. For anyone who grew up in the 1970s/1980s/1990s, they will remember colder springs because that period was colder than any period recently, individual years not withstanding. Unless you’re memory is etched in 1991 which was a record warm spring in many spots. Warm spring, and I still had some snow piles around town in June. Nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 11 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Good…we did fine without it for a long time. Very Overrated imo. Let’s improve the pacific some, and take our chances. Hard to tell at this point how next year will unfold..let alone anything after that. Overrated, Yes. But I would still rather have it all things being equal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: He thought it would be better than this and he thought last year would be good. anything would be better than this F- non winter.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I know Cosgrove and Dick Tolleris had been going big winter . Did they ever pull the plug on that idea or sink in their ship? DT pulled the plug like a week or two ago....last year he pulled the plug in December....he is more focused on data interpreation than long range predicitng, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 Assuming a high ACE/La Nina, really the only subpar season is 1998-1999...and once you get above 200 ACE they are all decent...2005-2006 probably being the floor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 90s were cold too. I remember that well. But man the 00s had some horrific ones. 2003 and 2005 will forever be remembered as complete disasters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: 90s were cold too. I remember that well. But man the 00s had some horrific ones. 2003 and 2005 will forever be remembered as complete disasters. 2005 was the worst...I remmber that May, I was commuting my first year at UML...it was a blustery nor' easter with temps in the 40s like every weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 2005 was the worst...I remmber that May, I was commuting my first year at UML...it was a blustery nor' easter with temps in the 40s like every weekend. 40s and a wicked nor'easter for Memorial Day weekend. April 2003 had days of like snow/sleet/FZDZ. It was crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: 40s and a wicked nor'easter for Memorial Day weekend. April 2003 had days of like snow/sleet/FZDZ. It was crazy. I was away in the Marines for that....I was gone from mid January into early August....just came home on leave to get boned by PDII. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Warm spring, and I still had some snow piles around town in June. Nuts. Yeah if that had been more like a 2018 or 2020 spring we prob would’ve had regular pack into the 3rd week of April. 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Assuming a high ACE/La Nina, really the only subpar season is 1998-1999...and once you get above 200 ACE they are all decent...2005-2006 probably being the floor. Yeah we def want to root for high ACE. But even if it isn’t, I won’t be terrified of La Niña. I’d like to see some changes in the N PAC in terms of getting ridging more poleward but we can get good La Niña even without a ton of blocking. 2007-08 and 2016-17 are two relatively recent examples. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah if that had been more like a 2018 or 2020 spring we prob would’ve had regular pack into the 3rd week of April. Yeah we def want to root for high ACE. But even if it isn’t, I won’t be terrified of La Niña. I’d like to see some changes in the N PAC in terms of getting ridging more poleward but we can get good La Niña even without a ton of blocking. 2007-08 and 2016-17 are two relatively recent examples. That's the thing...I think they are related....that and La Nina orientation in stronger events factors in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 We've had some weird cold shots in these recent Mays, people. I've seen and/or heard of snow being reported across multiple Mays since the year 2000, waay vastly more often than I ever did growing up in the 1970s and 1980s. That's not gaslight-able otherwise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 It's hard to judge springs off just temps too. Before full leaf out we can still pull some better rad nights. In SNH, we could pull 70/34 on May 1 and it's solidly BN, but real nice during the day. Have to use a combo of temps and precip to get the full picture 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 34 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: DT pulled the plug like a week or two ago....last year he pulled the plug in December....he is more focused on data interpreation than long range predicitng, though. He seems to just blow a lot of smoke in general Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 Hard to fathom another ratter is upon us as folks discuss springs of yore. Sad times for SNE winter enthusiasts. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 Nice GFS -enhanced hallucination off the EC in the chaos range. That whole entangled train wreck out there is completely fabricated by the physical processing emergence - there's no identifiable feed into that sytem, and given the total envelope of environmental, and modeled synoptic parameters, there's very little credence to a spontaneous cyclone driven by oceanic heat, either. This model just cannot leave ridges alone. This run exposes big brother constantly flicking ears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: He seems to just blow a lot of smoke in general Well, like I said....especially in season, he doesn't offer alot of speculation on the extended range that exceeds simple data inrepretation....once the data changes, he will change...just admits he doesn't "know if its right". He is more a medium range guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 Congrats New England on cmc 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 Lava and I banging out some miles. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Lava and I banging out in the woods Hmmm.. well enjoy I guess?! 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 51 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Assuming a high ACE/La Nina, really the only subpar season is 1998-1999...and once you get above 200 ACE they are all decent...2005-2006 probably being the floor. 2005-06 was a pretty low floor, with almost no snow after Jan 31. Among 389 met winter months at the Farmington co-op, only Dec 1999 had less snow than the 1.1" of Feb 06. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 35 minutes ago, wx2fish said: It's hard to judge springs off just temps too. Before full leaf out we can still pull some better rad nights. In SNH, we could pull 70/34 on May 1 and it's solidly BN, but real nice during the day. Have to use a combo of temps and precip to get the full picture Yeah that is true. You can occasionally have a really nice spring that was still normal or chilly in the mean temps, but lots of sun. Though often the precip will drive down departures in the spring. Esp the later into spring we get….clouds and precip blocking out a May sun angle really helps keep temps down. If you look at the 2000-2009 composite, it was very wet in those springs which probably helped drive the departures down. In the past decade, our springs have run significantly drier than that 2000s decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 Great winter for Leo and I. No complaints from this region. Started slow. December was crap. Whiffed on the big storms in January and was bare ground until the last week of the month, then gang busters. 52" between Jan 24th - Feb 24th. Have had a two foot snowpack for several weeks. I am just shy of normal of 72". Light years better than last winter here. Even in decent patterns, there are winners and losers'. No guarantees. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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