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It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread


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4 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Nope…it’s in the realm of possibilities, you’ve said it yourself, models don’t spit out the impossible. LFG. :lol:  Just wait till 18z comes out…1888 from Virginia to Maine 

Did I use the word "impossible"   ?  

   I said wondered off the ranch, unconstrained by chaos.  

  less likely to verify given all possible outcomes. 

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Fwiw ... family member in NJ has lawn greening with crocuses and tulips coming up - about 3 weeks ahead of schedule since she's lived there over nearly 20 years ( anecdotally).

Must be pretty far south because my NJ home currently has a 3” pack and no grass showing; been that way for almost 2 weeks, though I think it’s on life support by tomorrow.


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20 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

Light snow has commenced up here. Bad kind of storm to be on the east slope really, but it's a bad storm in general.

Light coating here earlier but temps suck and the precipitation shield looks like it went through a grater.

Flakes and a few pellets.  34F

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3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Light coating here earlier but temps suck and the precipitation shield looks like it went through a grater.

Flakes and a few pellets.  34F

Latest HRRR (and a few others) tries to get that precipitation over Pennsylvania to us as the main event at around 5am... I'm using the term "main event" really loosely here. But yeah, the radar right now, sheesh.

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11 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

00z GFS bringing some anafront fun at like 150 hours. It really puts the "clown" in clown map. Very real solution, GFS/Pivotal.

great clown.png

Wow! A phantom anafront a week out on the operational GFS that’s never going to happen. Looks riveting!

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16 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Wow! A phantom anafront on the operational GFS that’s never going to happen. Looks riveting!

Oh come on, you can do better than that! Don't waste your posts repeating what someone just said. *Edit* What I mean to say is, use those posts wisely. You get how many per day? (This is a trap, don't answer!) *Edit #2* Sorry man, just giving you a hard time.

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Actually, snowing pretty heavily right now with great snow growth. Going to take a walk with the dog and I’ll send a picture in a bit. This is definitely a surprise although it’s all going to melt this afternoon or tomorrow. But I’ll stay in the moment and just enjoy. 

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2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Actually, snowing pretty heavily right now with great snow growth. Going to take a walk with the dog and I’ll send a picture in a bit. This is definitely a surprise although it’s all going to melt this afternoon or tomorrow. But I’ll stay in the moment and just enjoy. 

Storm thread bud

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Yeah ... but subtle signs that -NAO may crop up  are in play ... 

we need a longitude flow structure.  The GGEM shows how to muck up warm outlook by buckling the flow as it's leaving the continent N/NE/E of Quebec into the Maritime.  Result is strong confluence generating big fat wrap around high pressure and no warm air is getting in here if that happens.

The other operational models are also doing something similar.  GFS can't wait to abolish warm air as native bias about that particular model anyway, but the Euro too. 

Not a warm surface chart implied by this

image.png.191d3cf57d301009b7be114d0da2a311.png

These operational runs are trying to enter a pattern ( if not seasonal ) transition. That requires  evacuating the semi permanent SPV out of Canada ... It's a classroom in how these seasonal move intervals actually can cause us here in New England ... particularly eastern New England, to get cold relative to the pattern look.    As the SPV ( or any trough for that matter) attempts to exit, there is an interval of confluence where the arriving continental changes impinges on the backs side ( confluence) and that sets off our  idiosyncratic "atmospheric Labrador" conveyor. Everyone else east of 100W across CONUS balms... except here, we sometimes get stuck in a cold purgatory (no, not a snowy one - just hell).

We have to watch for that.  It's possible these runs are going too far with the trough amplitude through eastern Canada. If that alleviates in future cycles, there'll be less of that big cold elephant's ass looming over top with it's chilly marine rhea

 

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