CoastalWx Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I'm looking at a modeled tapestry that fits the late Feb thru mid April leitmotif that goes back many winter season end-of-life scenarios Significant, if not major warm up, during the first week of March is gathering some presentation in both the modeled dailies, but also is backed by telecon spread/projections. As that breaks down ... the tropospheric bulk warmth that was generated by larger scaled feed-backs and increasing solar contribution et al, progresses out of the eastern continent and is delivered to higher latitudes. As it arrives up there ... it may superimpose over a background tendency for blocking to emerge ( ...no, I do not believe any said blocking is related to SSWs. Different discussion). This is where the outlook gets really dicey for warm enthusiasts around mid March. This could mean all kind of different possible things to the daily weather charts - there's no way to cogently speculate for now. Whatever comes of that, the light wind balmed out ridge utopia like the Canadian GGEM ... I would not guess that look remains the same after 7th ... 10th. In basic principle, unless 2012 is showing up ...it would be unlikely that persists, that early in the spring, anyway. I would suggest overall that the spring is above normal and that any possible mid March regression doesn't characterize total. Just looking at EPS...if anything were to change to cold and stormier it would be probably at least mid March. That's still a torch look on 3/8. So yay, I'll prepare for my March 2010 9" rain event again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Of course for the last two weeks when the airmass is serviceable, shows up. So much for the good back half of winter. Can’t win the last couple years…always something. But The last couple weeks have been consistently cold, and being we had the bigger event 9 days ago…it’s been a wintry vibe with solid cover for close to 10 days now. Which for here, is better than last winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 16 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Can’t win the last couple years…always something. But The last couple weeks have been consistently cold, and being we had the bigger event 9 days ago…it’s been a wintry vibe with solid cover for close to 10 days now. Which for here, is better than last winter. So instead of F- it is F+ just joshing. It has not been a good season for almost everyone in here. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Watch out for Mother Natures revenge in mid March. She can be a real Bitch! 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Of course for the last two weeks when the airmass is serviceable, shows up. So much for the good back half of winter. Kev's concerns were valid....I suspected the drier interval would be more confiened to the first half of the month. Butttt....nope. NSI index remains positive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 28 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Can’t win the last couple years…always something. But The last couple weeks have been consistently cold, and being we had the bigger event 9 days ago…it’s been a wintry vibe with solid cover for close to 10 days now. Which for here, is better than last winter. Yeah you to the Cape (of all places) and two ski areas in VT lucked out. But for 85% of the region, blows. 3 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 @GrandmasterB, any thoughts, yo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Kev's concerns were valid....I suspected the drier interval would be more confiened to the first half of the month. Butttt....nope. NSI index remains positive. The raging hard on Pac jet, the North Pacific and the dry Euro monthly screwed the winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: The raging hard on Pac jet, the North Pacific and the dry Euro monthly screwed the winter Exactly correct. 1972-1973 to a tee....except with some blocking, which made no difference. I thought the blocking would yield a better result relative to that year and with some luck, it would have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 49 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Of course for the last two weeks when the airmass is serviceable, shows up. So much for the good back half of winter. Last 9 days have averaged 28/7 with maxima ranging from 21 to 32. We took advantage of the seasonal temps with a qpf total of 0.07". Feb precip is currently 0.44", with 80% of that in the strongest Feb TS I can recall. Current lowest Feb precip is 1.04", so a new low is a given. If we stay below the 0.57" of Jan 2004, only the 0.31" of April 1999 will be drier than this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman1 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 nope that's it for me ready for spring. golf clubs are ready to go. 4 weeks at the range and i should be ready i hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 I joke about the March Mid Month revenge ( but you never know ). I took am ready to turn things around and bring in the Springtime warmth. I'm ready! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 4 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: I joke about the March Mid Month revenge ( but you never know ). I took am ready to turn things around and bring in the Springtime warmth. I'm ready! No, its true....everyone always recalls 1997...it was a dead-ratter that ended with a bang out of absolute nowhere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: No, its true....everyone always recalls 1997...it was a dead-ratter that ended with a bang out of absolute nowhere. I was just thinking about that. Right at nightfall it started to blow and drift around. Talk about WTF. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Just looking at EPS...if anything were to change to cold and stormier it would be probably at least mid March. That's still a torch look on 3/8. So yay, I'll prepare for my March 2010 9" rain event again. Don't get me started on the "flood wick" that began setting last June ... 'Magine if a Mother's Day 2005 came back over a broader region than just Merrimack headwaters now? - changing the subject a little going down the flood talk but ( sorry ) I have a flood fetish in my dystopian dream book for tree tops and tele' poles sticking out of water with people sitting on roof-tops. LOL. No but I do find them fascinating. I've often thought ... our geology's overriding topography is very old and determined. It seems the run-out channels are so deeply established that once we get to a certain flood amount, it really can't get higher because the adjoining flood plains are fixed. The elevations rise out side of those, too much. The flood mass would have to be factors of 3 or 4, which then requires a 1,000 year return rate or something. Anyway, we don't "bible flood" that often. Humanity's taken to building towns and neighborhood amid the 1::200 year event zones, simply because that's just long enough to have verdant pastoral/usable/attractive land for a multitude reasons. But every 1000 years ...? About 7 or 8 years ago ... there was hired geologists doing well taps on my street and around this side of town. We set over the water shed off the old Military base, Fort Devens, which had a landfill that dump Military grade chemistry for decades in the middle part of last century. In this case, Arsenic 6 was suspected in the ground going down deep. SO, they were hired to sample to determine the extent of the issue before Ayer becomes the next Flint, MI. Turns out ... the town water itself ( which I am connected to thank goodness) is unaffected but any dude with a well around here is probably either down to 1 testicle or has grown a 3rd by now... While they were on my street ... I ambled out there with a cup of joe and struck up a conversation. The woman said, "You know ...the extracted material we are plumbing up in these tap wells all over this side of town is consistent with alluvial plainer material, going down some 90 feet." Her eye brow was raised over a subtle squint like she was working something out... Of course that drove me to ask further. "...Yeah that means this region spends a significant amount of it geological history under water. Probably, I don't know, once every 500 years?" SO Ayer sets in the heart of the Nashoba Valley. In fact, the river of the same name cuts through the township. This whole region is originally just one such verdant attraction - There's probably a lot of these types of lost regions that are in long wait of an extraordinary headline. Not just here in the Nashoba Valley. Concord has a river that is similar. So does Sudbury ..etc etc... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Looks like we have a massive screamer coming next week. Start entertaining wind gusts. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Just looking at EPS...if anything were to change to cold and stormier it would be probably at least mid March. That's still a torch look on 3/8. So yay, I'll prepare for my March 2010 9" rain event again. Yeah, I don't mean to "predict" a regression ... I mean, that reminds of those years where the blocking reared after early warmth blue-balled the warm enthusiasts when an early unfinished BJ balmed 'em all up and then left ... It's more about being leery of that potential. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah, I don't mean to "predict" a regression ... I mean, that reminds of those years where the blocking reared after early warmth blue-balled the warm enthusiasts after an early unfinished BJ balmed 'em all up and then left ... It's more about being leery of that potential. I'm aware of that too. Some signs second half stormier for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I'm aware of that too. Some signs second half stormier for sure. What is a BJ he is talking about…? Bowling Ball? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: What is a BJ he is talking about…? Bowling Ball? Yeah, like just as you get adjusted to nice weather...boom it changes to a period of colder/stormier weather. Probably will happen to a point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Last day of snowcover today . It’s been a decent stretch for pack even in the year of the rat. Until next winter. Goodbye snow and onto warmth and spring. Same picture tomorrow it won't change much 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Same picture tomorrow it won't change much rain and dews near 40-that will be wiped out by sunset tomorrow-just piles left... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Could have potential for a line of thunderstorms to move through next Thursday. Instability won't be anything noteworthy but that's some intense dynamics with a large warm sector characterized by dewpoints >50 with steep lapse rates. I am sniffing some strong convection potential. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 15 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Could have potential for a line of thunderstorms to move through next Thursday. Instability won't be anything noteworthy but that's some intense dynamics with a large warm sector characterized by dewpoints >50 with steep lapse rates. I am sniffing some strong convection potential. Sniff this . 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 16 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Could have potential for a line of thunderstorms to move through next Thursday. Instability won't be anything noteworthy but that's some intense dynamics with a large warm sector characterized by dewpoints >50 with steep lapse rates. I am sniffing some strong convection potential. Big winds signaled 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Big winds signaled It certainly could be quite windy, even outside of convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: It certainly could be quite windy, even outside of convection. We damage and destroy . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: We damage and destroy . Forget March coming in like a lion, it's coming in like the big, bad, Wolf and we're all cooped up in Little Red Ridding Hood's grandmothers house and the house is about to get blown away. 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 I love long range GFS. Always a good time. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 30 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: We damage and destroy . Are there any trees or dwellings still standing in Tolland after all of the wind events? 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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