CoastalWx Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 GFS op getting a clue. Let’s go. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 5 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Ya that would be welcome by all.. All out torch .. Last seasonable day would be this Sunday .. Then we go 50 and 60s until mid March with probably a few days around 70 or so and dry weather to boot Let’s do it. Hoping it’s right at this point. But Just let’s keep it going. Would suck to snap back and get cold and wet in mid March… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Last day of snowcover today . It’s been a decent stretch for pack even in the year of the rat. Until next winter. Goodbye snow and onto warmth and spring. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Let’s do it. Hoping it’s right at this point. But Just let’s keep it going. Would suck to snap back and get cold and wet in mid March… 0 chance it would keep going. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just awesome warmth coming up starting next week. It's over. Finally. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Just awesome warmth coming up starting next week. It's over. Finally. I am eager. Just wipe the slate and this season clean. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Snow blower moves into back of shed this weekend. Spring stuff gets moved forward. Love it. 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I am eager. Just wipe the slate and this season clean. We know they'll be shitty days and people clinging onto day 10 GFS snow on 3/15...but we are done. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Just awesome warmth coming up starting next week. It's over. Finally. Looks like great golf weather if we can dry things out just a bit 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoCORH4L Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Just awesome warmth coming up starting next week. It's over. Finally. Looks like the end, even for Wolfie in northern Maine. He Never got a good ride in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: We know they'll be shitty days and people clinging onto day 10 GFS snow on 3/15...but we are done. If something becomes imminent, then I'll be all in..unlikely, but possible. But I am done chasing long range pots of gold over the other side of the rainbow this season. Take your SSW and suddenly shove it stratospherically far up your brown vortex- 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, NoCORH4L said: Looks like the end, even for Wolfie in northern Maine. He Never got a good ride in. The snowmobile bars in Moosevulva Maine will turn into tiki bars. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: If something becomes imminent, then I'll be all in..unlikely, but possible. But I am done chasing long range pots of gold over the other side of the rainbow this season. Take your SSW and suddenly shove stratospherically far up your brown vortex- Exactly. If it comes it comes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Its like I was saying to Will yesterday, the issue is we need some large tropical impetus to shake up this stable hemispheric alignment that features an extra tropical Pacific that is very hostile to ne US snowfall. My guess is that an immensely active tropical season followed up by a healthy La Nina could do it....much like the massive El Nino in 2016 realigned what had been a very favorable extra tropical Pacific for ne US snowfall. I failed to recognize this in my past couple of outlooks, which is why correctly forecasting the polar domain was useless as it relates to the snowfall forecast. These failed efforts have taught me that high latitude blocking is not as proiminent a driver as I had perceived. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Let me know what you guys think...here is what I had for DM vs reality through 2/19: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 That's pretty darn good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 I measured the analog composite against 1951-2010 climo period for comparison to this season in order to account for climate change...otherwise, measuring this year against analogs several decades old yields an unrepresentative volume of higher heights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Why 77-78? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That's pretty darn good. This is what is frustrating me to know end....still the snowfall and even temps were so far off. I need to: 1) Do a better job reflecting CC in my interpretation of how composite seasonal forecasts will trasnlate to sensible weather. 2) Garner a better grasp of the extra tropical Pacific and account for it better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 I’m emotional ready 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Why 77-78? Sensible weather matches earlier in the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: This is what is frustrating me to know end....still the snowfall and even temps were so far off. I need to: 1) Do a better job reflecting CC in my interpretation of how composite seasonal forecasts will trasnlate to sensible weather. 2) Garner a better grasp of the extra tropical Pacific and account for it better. I also wonder if Hunga Tonga mucked things up. That is an enormous amount of water vapor sent high into the atmosphere/stratosphere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I also wonder if Hunga Tonga mucked things up. That is an enormous amount of water vapor sent high into the atmosphere/stratosphere. Not in the manner many speculated, which was a strong PV....I correctly called BS on that last summer and wrote a post as to why. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/08/preliminary-analysis-of-extratropical.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: GFS has a hurricane off the SE coast in early March...wild With SST's < 79 F in that area, and OHE at the perennial nadir, ... and just because it's at 384 hours when its doing that ( LOL ) ... it's largely more likely not a reflection of the environment, and more an indictment of the model physics itself. It's actually a good case study op for the modeler/engineers at NCEP, because it is at the boundaries of plausibility where the best testing opportunities for any model that predicts any system in nature ( for that matter) exists. Personally I suggest it is actually a better indicator for the characterization of the mid latitude circulation type. Because when you move a -PNA -related ridge tendency, mid and upper level, through the eastern continent over top in latitude, that naturally produces a favorable circulation realm over the western Caribbean, Gulf of Mex and the Bahamas - ..the GFS "might" be right about that general synoptic scaffold at the larger scale, within which it is then too fastidiously sensitive in spinning up cyclones when the baser physical parametrics, such as thermal states, are feeble like that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AstronomyEnjoyer Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 13.3° for the low this morning - Stratus is all frosted up. I don't know, I've got to be one of the biggest weenies around, but this cold weather sucks if it ain't gonna snow. I think maybe I'm starting to see the light. Bring on the warmth? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 53 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Snow blower moves into back of shed this weekend. Spring stuff gets moved forward. Love it. I'm still keeping the shovels out 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Just awesome warmth coming up starting next week. It's over. Finally. I'm ready 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 hour ago, NoCORH4L said: Looks like the end, even for Wolfie in northern Maine. He Never got a good ride in. Oh I got a very good trip in…the issue is I was only able to go one trip. We’ll be going in a couple weeks to get our gear and equipment whether it’s rideable or not. But oh well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 I'm looking at a modeled tapestry that fits the late Feb thru mid April leitmotif that goes back many winter season end-of-life scenarios Significant, if not major warm up, during the first week of March is gathering some presentation in both the modeled dailies, but also is backed by telecon spread/projections. As that breaks down ... the tropospheric bulk warmth that was generated by larger scaled feed-backs and increasing solar contribution et al, progresses out of the eastern continent and is delivered to higher latitudes. As it arrives up there ... it may superimpose over a background tendency for blocking to emerge ( ...no, I do not believe any said blocking is related to SSWs. Different discussion). This is where the outlook gets really dicey for warm enthusiasts around mid March. This could mean all kind of different possible things to the daily weather charts - there's no way to cogently speculate for now. Whatever comes of that, the light wind balmed out ridge utopia like the Canadian GGEM ... I would not guess that look remains the same after 7th ... 10th. In basic principle, unless 2012 is showing up ...it would be unlikely that persists, that early in the spring, anyway. I would suggest overall that the spring is above normal and that any possible mid March regression doesn't characterize total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Of course for the last two weeks when the airmass is serviceable, shows up. So much for the good back half of winter. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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