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It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread


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5 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Ya that would be welcome by all.. All out torch .. Last seasonable day would be this Sunday .. Then we go 50 and 60s until mid March with probably a few days around 70 or so and dry weather to boot 

Let’s do it. Hoping it’s right at this point. But Just let’s keep it going. Would suck to snap back and get cold and wet in mid March…

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We know they'll be shitty days and people clinging onto day 10 GFS snow on 3/15...but we are done.

If something becomes imminent, then I'll be all in..unlikely, but possible. But I am done chasing long range pots of gold over the other side of the rainbow this season. Take your SSW and suddenly shove it stratospherically far up your brown vortex-

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If something becomes imminent, then I'll be all in..unlikely, but possible. But I am done chasing long range pots of gold over the other side of the rainbow this season. Take your SSW and suddenly shove stratospherically far up your brown vortex-

Exactly. If it comes it comes. 

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Its like I was saying to Will yesterday, the issue is we need some large tropical impetus to shake up this stable hemispheric alignment that features an extra tropical Pacific that is very hostile to ne US snowfall. My guess is that an immensely active tropical season followed up by a healthy La Nina could do it....much like the massive El Nino in 2016 realigned what had been a very favorable extra tropical Pacific for ne US snowfall.

I failed to recognize this in my past couple of outlooks, which is why correctly forecasting the polar domain was useless as it relates to the snowfall forecast.

These failed efforts have taught me that high latitude blocking is not as proiminent a driver as I had perceived.

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8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That's pretty darn good.

This is what is frustrating me to know end....still the snowfall and even temps were so far off.

I need to:

1) Do a better job reflecting CC in my interpretation of how composite seasonal forecasts will trasnlate to sensible weather.

2) Garner a better grasp of the extra tropical Pacific and account for it better.

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11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is what is frustrating me to know end....still the snowfall and even temps were so far off.

I need to:

1) Do a better job reflecting CC in my interpretation of how composite seasonal forecasts will trasnlate to sensible weather.

2) Garner a better grasp of the extra tropical Pacific and account for it better.

I also wonder if Hunga Tonga mucked things up. That is an enormous amount of water vapor sent high into the atmosphere/stratosphere.

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I also wonder if Hunga Tonga mucked things up. That is an enormous amount of water vapor sent high into the atmosphere/stratosphere.

Not in the manner many speculated, which was a strong PV....I correctly called BS on that last summer and wrote a post as to why.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/08/preliminary-analysis-of-extratropical.html

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3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

GFS has a hurricane off the SE coast in early March...wild 

With SST's < 79 F in that area, and OHE at the perennial nadir, ... and just because it's at 384 hours when its doing that ( LOL ) ... it's largely more likely not a reflection of the environment, and more an indictment of the model physics itself.

It's actually a good case study op for the modeler/engineers at NCEP, because it is at the boundaries of plausibility where the best testing opportunities for any model that predicts any system in nature ( for that matter) exists.

Personally I suggest it is actually a better indicator for the characterization of the mid latitude circulation type.  Because when you move a -PNA -related ridge tendency, mid and upper level, through the eastern continent over top in latitude, that naturally produces a favorable circulation realm over the western Caribbean, Gulf of Mex and the Bahamas -

..the GFS "might" be right about that general synoptic scaffold at the larger scale, within which it is then too fastidiously sensitive in spinning up cyclones when the baser physical parametrics, such as thermal states, are feeble like that.  

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1 hour ago, NoCORH4L said:

Looks like the end, even for Wolfie in northern Maine. He Never got a good ride in. 

Oh I got a very good trip in…the issue is I was only able to go one trip.  We’ll be going in a couple weeks to get our gear and equipment whether it’s rideable or not.  But oh well. 

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I'm looking at a modeled tapestry that fits the late Feb thru mid April leitmotif that goes back many winter season end-of-life scenarios

Significant, if not major warm up, during the first week of March is gathering some presentation in both the modeled dailies, but also is backed by telecon spread/projections. 

As that breaks down ... the tropospheric bulk warmth that was generated by larger scaled feed-backs and increasing solar contribution et al, progresses out of the eastern continent and is delivered to higher latitudes. As it arrives up there ... it may superimpose over a background tendency for blocking to emerge 

( ...no, I do not believe any said blocking is related to SSWs.  Different discussion).

This is where the outlook gets really dicey for warm enthusiasts around mid March.  This could mean all kind of different possible things to the daily weather charts - there's no way to cogently speculate for now.  Whatever comes of that, the light wind balmed out ridge utopia like the Canadian GGEM ... I would not guess that look remains the same after 7th ... 10th.   In basic principle, unless 2012 is showing up ...it would be unlikely that persists, that early in the spring, anyway. 

I would suggest overall that the spring is above normal and that any possible mid March regression doesn't characterize total.

 

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