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It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread


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14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The ice around here was thicker during our only week of winter in January. Even with the cold this morning, birds are chirping, sun feels nice, and Tip is circling around Fox Hall since his restraining order expired. All is well.

:lol: May not have been wise to let it expire now that he's nearly 50 and they are the same age.

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32 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Full ice here on Lava Lake.  Why not during that colder period in January?  I suppose because of the constant wind and water movement during that time, preventing the freeze.

Either way, it doesn't matter because it's not thick enough to enjoy, and will be a dream by next week.

There was some back then too but briefly, if we had this weather in January maybe we'd get enough to ice fish.

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32 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gefs and other models were showing the AO tanking for a while. It went negative but never tanked. 

Big failure

image.thumb.png.f890ee5f9862592cebc364848a643f49.png

Oh, this was the old one - you're attempting to verify.   See, you have to actually say something like "you idiots notice the date ? "   ... LOL

Yeah it was off by a factor of 2 compared to verification.  So, not particularly good. That means it was forecasting twice as low as it actually became.  It was right about the trajectories though.   Interesting.

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Thanks for that Ray, and well done. It isn't easy at all to talk about in mixed company. My husband is clean 10 years from a truly evil substance that has plagued this country with some help from big pharma. I even struggled some with it myself after rotator cuff surgery about 14 years ago. For both of us it was brutal honesty, and love that has helped us through our journey.

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We're still seeing a telecon projection that implicates ( at minimum) an AN first week of March. It also provides a favorable era for that synergistic heat event phenomenon ( which I seem to be the only one that gives a warm car seat over) but cross that bridge.  

Yet the operational versions won't fill in the canvas out there to the extent the former provides.  It should be noted that we're talking beyond D9 so - maybe that's why. lol.  So far, it's milder but shy of what it can be in that telecon spread.

We have a wavy ambient polar boundary from roughly Colorado to western Ontario in these operational runs. Cyclones running up along, each one pressing periodic cold front/air masses side-swiping along 40 N.  Southeast of them, diffused warm fronts in the pressure field - more like smears toting a fuzzy wetness.  

That looks like weird behavior for this time of year.  Typically ...warm transports between late winter and mid spring are dry warmth.  You get get 70 F over a DP of 30 F type thing.  Red Flagging ..etc.  But these warm sectors in the operational runs bloom misty light QPF miasmas ... yuck! 

I want a 3 day 65/25 DPs ... 70+ can happen more so nowadays than 1990, but still not a realistic expectation. Need another 15 years of climate denial before that reality starts gut punching spin artists... 

It seems we're in a eerie modeling decade where they put out solutions that are remarkably well correlated with what no one wants, with creepy proficiency. 

God I hope we don't get into another summer where we too rarely see sun, buried under 82/78 subtropical nut sweat skies.

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

The ice around here was thicker during our only week of winter in January. Even with the cold this morning, birds are chirping, sun feels nice, and Tip is circling around Fox Hall since his restraining order expired. All is well.

The 70 foot extension latter tipped off the local authorities unfortunately.  SO, re-instated.  :cry:

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19 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

We're still seeing a telecon projection that implicates ( at minimum) an AN first week of March. It also provides a favorable era for that synergistic heat event phenomenon ( which I seem to be the only one that gives a warm car seat over) but cross that bridge.  

Yet the operational versions won't fill in the canvas out there to the extent the former provides.  It should be noted that we're talking beyond D9 so - maybe that's why. lol.  So far, it's milder but shy of what it can be in that telecon spread.

We have a wavy ambient polar boundary from roughly Colorado to western Ontario in these operational runs. Cyclones running up along, each one pressing periodic cold front/air masses side-swiping along 40 N.  Southeast of them, diffused warm fronts in the pressure field - more like smears toting a fuzzy wetness.  

That looks like weird behavior for this time of year.  Typically ...warm transports between late winter and mid spring are dry warmth.  You get get 70 F over a DP of 30 F type thing.  Red Flagging ..etc.  But these warm sectors in the operational runs bloom misty light QPF miasmas ... yuck! 

I want a 3 day 65/25 DPs ... 70+ can happen more so nowadays than 1990, but still not a realistic expectation. Need another 15 years of climate denial before that reality starts gut punching spin artists... 

It seems we're in a eerie modeling decade where they put out solutions that are remarkably well correlated with what no one wants, with creepy proficiency. 

God I hope we don't get into another summer where we too rarely see sun, buried under 82/78 subtropical nut sweat skies.

The bed sheets in Ayer or the undies in Tolland?

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3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Lost my best friend last fall.

My sister has been hopelessly addicted to Alcohol, oxy and now Suboxone for 25yrs. Lost everything. Her kids, job, family members, life as she knew it. I pray she will have a similar story one day.

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

We're still seeing a telecon projection that implicates ( at minimum) an AN first week of March. It also provides a favorable era for that synergistic heat event phenomenon ( which I seem to be the only one that gives a warm car seat over) but cross that bridge.  

Yet the operational versions won't fill in the canvas out there to the extent the former provides.  It should be noted that we're talking beyond D9 so - maybe that's why. lol.  So far, it's milder but shy of what it can be in that telecon spread.

We have a wavy ambient polar boundary from roughly Colorado to western Ontario in these operational runs. Cyclones running up along, each one pressing periodic cold front/air masses side-swiping along 40 N.  Southeast of them, diffused warm fronts in the pressure field - more like smears toting a fuzzy wetness.  

That looks like weird behavior for this time of year.  Typically ...warm transports between late winter and mid spring are dry warmth.  You get get 70 F over a DP of 30 F type thing.  Red Flagging ..etc.  But these warm sectors in the operational runs bloom misty light QPF miasmas ... yuck! 

I want a 3 day 65/25 DPs ... 70+ can happen more so nowadays than 1990, but still not a realistic expectation. Need another 15 years of climate denial before that reality starts gut punching spin artists... 

It seems we're in a eerie modeling decade where they put out solutions that are remarkably well correlated with what no one wants, with creepy proficiency. 

God I hope we don't get into another summer where we too rarely see sun, buried under 82/78 subtropical nut sweat skies.

That makes two of us. Nut sweat skies sounds terrible. 

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16 hours ago, ChangeofSeasonsWX said:

Largest ever snowstorm in PVD for the month of March was 14.7" on 03/19/56. That month was like the March version of Feb 2015 with a snowstorm every week. 31.6" in March 1956 and 31.8" in Feb 2015.

That's their greatest calendar day snowfall.  March 3-5, 1960 dumped 17.7" there, 8th greatest overall.

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This is heading for a full ratter here relative to normal.  I'm sitting at 21" of snow on the season.  December and February (so far) being full on disasters. Seeing little to no snow yesterday all the way down I-91 from N VT was depressing.  

People are out on the ice here, including the coves of the CT River.

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2 minutes ago, Cuteirishgirl25 said:

All this fake climate change caused by humans it’s just a power grab for world government. Michelle Gorbachev was the one that started the green movement look it up. It’s a fact green Cross international.

Keep your head in that hole of yours. 

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1 hour ago, Cold Miser said:

I was about 15miles north , in Auburn MA yesterday.  Plenty of guys on the pond fishing.  Some places have it, and some dont.

I was in Holland Ma Monday, Hamilton Reservoir is split in two by a causeway, half was frozen and the other half was 75% open water. Must be deeper on that side. Up in Sterling, small ponds had good cover.

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14 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Doesn't Suboxone keep her off the bad drugs?

Suboxone is more to keep you alive, and limit the effects of said bad shit when you slip up. It is a similar chemical and takes dedication to wean off of over a great deal of time. It took my husband six years of slowly tapering to be comfortable with himself and how he feels. It's an understatement to say I'm SO proud of him for what he's done. Sub isn't a cure, but a starting point. As he said it only really started to help when you take a leap of faith to leave your old life and "friends" behind and search for the light at the end of the tunnel... way too simplified but that's our experience

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