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It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread


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Since I saw it was mentioned again a few pages back, 

Can someone please explain to me where the stigma comes from that a strong EL Nino guarantees a crap winter in terms of snowfall. And yes, some have guaranteed that because every now and then you have people crawl out from under the bed saying, "I know it was going to suck because of strong EL Nino". 

 

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1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

We need a positive PDO 

Lol last year you said we needed an El Niño. A couple days back you’re saying we need a La Niña.  Now it’s +PDO.  Too dam funny.
 

It’s just zero fortune most times. Although you got lucky Saturday, and CT and the Cape killed it 6 days ago.  So there’s that.  
 

Nuances as they say….they haven’t been in our corner much the last couple years(save for last Tuesday and Saturday).  

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33 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I'll throw in an answer to that. I think some like to use one season or one example as a reason for justification. Just like 10-15 years ago there was the stigma that weak La Nina's were the king because of 1995-1996.

I know, there's more gears in the works than just one thing, every year it seems to get more complicated for me for what I'm wishing for.

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2 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

I know, there's more gears in the works than just one thing, every year it seems to get more complicated for me for what I'm wishing for.

Nah not really…just more folks confusing shit they don’t really understand is all.

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23 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Nah not really…just more folks confusing shit they don’t really understand is all.

Ultimately, the correlation between ENSO and seasonal snowfall here is not very strong. And when I say that, I mean it is not strong enough to just make a definitive statement. While snowfall can be correlated to certain patterns a bit more strongly, at the end of the day, it is all about how the pieces are moving and evolving within the pattern and how that pattern may be evolving. When a pattern regime sets in, two things can happen:

1) If that pattern sucks, then you're in for a long stretch

2) If the pattern sets up perfectly, you're going to cash in and this is what happens during our prolific stretches.

We can get big winters in EL Nino, La Nina, weak events, moderate events, strong events, we can get crap winters in any of these as well. We can get good snows with a +NAO and we can get them with a -NAO. 

The most important thing above all, is what is happening within the pattern, not necessarily the pattern itself. 

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That CT Valley to Quabbin hole is tough. Lived in Belchertown/Greenfield long ago and thought I'd left Woods Hole for the arctic. Great step up from Cape Cod.

Having moved on to more exciting wintry areas I look back and think, "I once thought it was wintry there."!

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3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

142yrs of data and 7 of the top 10 least snowiest Feb’s have occurred in the last 50yrs. A Ratter month is becoming more common lol.

Good news is that dews and heat are approaching. BJs already knows 

 

 

IMG_4594.jpeg

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