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It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread


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1 hour ago, dryslot said:

You beat me by 1” so far.

2.5" in Feb with only 0.09" LE, plus 0.35" in the 2/10 TS.  Only need an inch to pass 2/06 and escape last place. 
(2005-06 had 45.0" thru Jan 31 and only 7.8" after.  Then the next winter had 19.1" thru Jan 31 and 76.2" after.  Combine the 2 winters and things look close to average.  :o)

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The latter mid range and extended GEFs are completely out of phase with the EPS across the continent. It's pretty obvious those recent GFS runs that walled off the warmth with a denial-enabling mix ptype boundary is just part of an overall tendency to speed the flow along and slip the N/stream into a different R-wave signal --> more confluence... --> eternally winter ... okay.  I guess it could.

The teleconnector projections (numerical) however, from all three ensemble systems,  sides with the EPS.  The signal is a warm one for the first week of March.  The operational version of it ( and the GGEM by the way...) are less  like the GFS' atmospheric Laurentide Ice Sheet facade sitting W-E  through our region.

Assuming the warm weighty side transpires, does it couch a more exotic warm run? For the record, I conjectured that for "concept awareness," not intending as an actually outlook.  Synergistic heat bursts ( which by the way... Saskatchewan and N. Scotland both saw a heat bursts in January, where both registered 70 F ... pretty sick at those latitudes) behave like emergent properties out of noise. The models process atmospheric input in complex geophysical processes, out in time, but synergistic emergence is a by product along the way - similar to chaos/spontaneous materialization. They are present as long as background ... but disappears when it evolves into something else and abandons.

I don't have much confidence in either the GEFs vs the EPS/GEPS.  Simple logic would lean toward the EPS and GGEPs, considering that even the numerics of the GEFs themselves are warm. But the GEFs has contaminating transient trough modes within that general construct - which can sometimes take place, too. 

Flip a coin I guess.   I'd rather 2012 knocked on the door but heh -

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17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The latter mid range and extended GEFs are completely out of phase with the EPS across the continent. It's pretty obvious those recent GFS runs that walled off the warmth with a denial-enabling mix ptype boundary is just part of an overall tendency to speed the flow along and slip the N/stream into a different R-wave signal --> more confluence... --> eternally winter ... okay.  I guess it could.

The teleconnector projections (numerical) however, from all three ensemble systems,  sides with the EPS.  The signal is a warm one for the first week of March.  The operational version of it ( and the GGEM by the way...) are less  like the GFS' atmospheric Laurentide Ice Sheet facade sitting W-E  through our region.

Assuming the warm weighty side transpires, does it couch a more exotic warm run? For the record, I conjectured that for "concept awareness," not intending as an actually outlook.  Synergistic heat bursts ( which by the way... Saskatchewan and N. Scotland both saw a heat bursts in January, where both registered 70 F ... pretty sick at those latitudes) behave like emergent properties out of noise. The models process atmospheric input in complex geophysical processes, out in time, but synergistic emergence is a by product along the way - similar to chaos/spontaneous materialization. They are present as long as background ... but disappears when it evolves into something else and abandons.

I don't have much confidence in either the GEFs vs the EPS/GEPS.  Simple logic would lean toward the EPS and GGEPs, considering that even the numerics of the GEFs themselves are warm. But the GEFs has contaminating transient trough modes within that general construct - which can sometimes take place, too. 

Flip a coin I guess.   I'd rather 2012 knocked on the door but heh -

I think I’m in the lean warm camp, but not a continuous stretch like the EPS has been occasionally advertising. Maybe 2-3 warm days and then a sneaky s/w to muck it up for a couple of days before the warmth tries to advect back in. OH valley-south and westward probably roast. Although if we can really ramp those positive height anomalies into PQ it’ll give us a lot more wiggle room to avoid backdoors or late digging s/w’s.

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1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

35”ish.    

36 here.

what a string of rats though. Including this year, I am at 79% of normal over the last 6 years. Last year was the only above average, due to a stat-padding 27" March.

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39 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I think I’m in the lean warm camp, but not a continuous stretch like the EPS has been occasionally advertising. Maybe 2-3 warm days and then a sneaky s/w to muck it up for a couple of days before the warmth tries to advect back in. OH valley-south and westward probably roast. Although if we can really ramp those positive height anomalies into PQ it’ll give us a lot more wiggle room to avoid backdoors or late digging s/w’s.

Agreed ...

you now full disclosure. I'm also spooked a bit by last year's global heat surge.  As far as I'm seeing around the world, that didn't like settle back and prove just a transient weirdness ( so far ...).  Maybe that happens, but air, and sea did that?  - "everywhere all at once"

I'm surprised that doesn't resonate more than I think it really should.  We just witnessed a planet ... a whole planet, detonate.  Something went on that is still sending theoretical climate craniums scrambling to explain.  The implications of which unfortunately can be scary.  - oblivious

Not trying to conjure up a Michael Bay dystopian theme here ( we can certainly go there, LOL )  Still, I can't help but wonder ... - is the hemisphere like "spring loaded"? 

As the sun creeps N across the latitudes by day, perhaps we near some threshold ... Suddenly, an unusually fast and furious seasonal recovery flashes over.  We did it last March - we just didn't get the Eurasian weird heat over the U.S...  China was like 95 F for week around the latitude of D.C. ( I think it was... ).

Anyway, I don't think based on the awareness of the growing catalogue of outre global events ... that one should assume a 1990s climate portrait of a terminating winter into a 'bowling season' last hope before green up. That doesn't seem to be supported to put it nicely -

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56 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Agreed ...

you now full disclosure. I'm also spooked a bit by last year's global heat surge.  As far as I'm seeing around the world, that didn't like settle back and prove just a transient weirdness ( so far ...).  Maybe that happens, but air, and sea did that?  - "everywhere all at once"

I'm surprised that doesn't resonate more than I think it really should.  We just witnessed a planet ... a whole planet, detonate.  Something went on that is still sending theoretical climate craniums scrambling to explain.  The implications of which unfortunately can be scary.  - oblivious

Not trying to conjure up a Michael Bay dystopian theme here ( we can certainly go there, LOL )  Still, I can't help but wonder ... - is the hemisphere like "spring loaded"? 

As the sun creeps N across the latitudes by day, perhaps we near some threshold ... Suddenly, an unusually fast and furious seasonal recovery flashes over.  We did it last March - we just didn't get the Eurasian weird heat over the U.S...  China was like 95 F for week around the latitude of D.C. ( I think it was... ).

Anyway, I don't think based on the awareness of the growing catalogue of outre global events ... that one should assume a 1990s climate portrait of a terminating winter into a 'bowling season' last hope before green up. That doesn't seem to be supported to put it nicely -

Congrats to the farmers, hungry people, people dying  of cold. Michael Bay can make a movie based on the benefits of a warmer world. It always doesn't have to be doom and gloom but hype sells.

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1 hour ago, Cold Miser said:

...Rare ice sighting in the middle of Lava Lake.  Looks like I can get out there and ice fish...If I weigh as much as a sparrow.

20240219_092733.jpg

we haven't had ice in years. When my kid played hockey we would play on local ponds every year - haven't been able to skate on a pond in at least 4 or 5 years here in southern CT.

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