brooklynwx99 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 still skeptical, but it’s hard not to get excited with these kinds of looks. no can kicking and the signal is growing in time if we’re seeing these looks in a week’s time, i think we can say this pattern is real… it would be around a week out on ENS 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Eric Webb thinks the MJO will slow down and the great pattern will continue well into March . Hope he is right 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 16 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Eric Webb thinks the MJO will slow down and the great pattern will continue well into March . Hope he is right And if I'm not mistaken, isn't Eric Webb usually very conservative and also warm biased? I've never actually seen him on this end of the spectrum so confident about the look coming up. I hope he's right. Judah Cohen had made a post about 5 days ago about the polar vortex tightening up and staying in a tight circle for the rest of the winter. But I can understand is how one meteorologist has one outlook where another has a whole different outlook. It's just like the storms this year. One model has it going one way and another has it going the other way lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 6 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: And if I'm not mistaken, isn't Eric Webb usually very conservative and also warm biased? I've never actually seen him on this end of the spectrum so confident about the look coming up. I hope he's right. Judah Cohen had made a post about 5 days ago about the polar vortex tightening up and staying in a tight circle for the rest of the winter. But I can understand is how one meteorologist has one outlook where another has a whole different outlook. It's just like the storms this year. One model has it going one way and another has it going the other way lol Yes he is conservative He has always said from the beginning that February will be the wintry month . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 15 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: And if I'm not mistaken, isn't Eric Webb usually very conservative and also warm biased? I've never actually seen him on this end of the spectrum so confident about the look coming up. I hope he's right. Judah Cohen had made a post about 5 days ago about the polar vortex tightening up and staying in a tight circle for the rest of the winter. But I can understand is how one meteorologist has one outlook where another has a whole different outlook. It's just like the storms this year. One model has it going one way and another has it going the other way lol Judah is failing to realize that what happens up top isn't exactly what happens down here. it's the same as a SSW event that doesn't couple. it seems like the stratosphere is going to do its own thing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 seems like everything is coming together... Pacific jet is retracting and allowing for a strong Aleutian low to form, the NAM in the troposphere remains uncoupled from the stratosphere and favorable, and we should see blocking increase via wave breaking as we head into mid-December. MJO will progress slowly into the central Pacific and the western IO, which is highly favorable for Feb Ninos. STJ is open for business alongside an equatorward Pacific jet looks like we could actually see a pretty similar MJO progression to 2010. also made a pass through 4-6 (although weaker) in mid-late Jan before rotting in phases 7-1. hovmollers also show the MJO progressing nicely want to give it another week to allow this pattern to start getting within 7-10 days on ensembles, but I think we might be in for it. some of the winter cancel crap was silly 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 3 hours ago, Allsnow said: @ORH_wxman yup we will be on our only cool island compared to the rest of the country. Will was talking about this a few days ago Frankly, we are due for more of these in the years to come... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: Judah is failing to realize that what happens up top isn't exactly what happens down here. it's the same as a SSW event that doesn't couple. it seems like the stratosphere is going to do its own thing I really like Judah, but he is a better researcher than a forecaster. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I really like Judah, but he is a better researcher than a forecaster. Tomer is the same way, really really smart guy. gifted with data. but forecasting is a different art 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 18 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: Tomer is the same way, really really smart guy. gifted with data. but forecasting is a different art Tomer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Tomer? Tomer Burg. he’s on twitter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 End of control, (just an extension of the OP) imo looks better for diver….. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 minute ago, Heisy said: End of control, (just an extension of the OP) imo looks better for diver…. . Heiny is on the case....locked on to this. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 GFS lost the 2-4 footer? WTF? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 minute ago, Go Kart Mozart said: GFS lost the 2-4 footer? WTF? It's alright it will bring it back sometime around 144 hours but then it will trend into congrats NH/ME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Heiny is on the case....locked on to this.It’s on the table. Ridge position is iffy but we’ll see. I’m just in waiting mode down here in Philly. Would love a yearly chase. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 hour ago, Heisy said: It’s on the table. Ridge position is iffy but we’ll see. I’m just in waiting mode down here in Philly. Would love a yearly chase . I think the ridge is too far east, personally. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think the ridge is too far east, personally. For Sure. That won’t deliver if that is indeed the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 hour ago, WinterWolf said: For Sure. That won’t deliver if that is indeed the case. Looks like New Brunswick gets the demon on 00z GFS....N ME gets a decent hit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Maps showing storms dropping from Nunavut to ACY are fun to look at, but highly unlikely. Meanwhile, euro wants to retrograde that big continental block. That day-10 scenario makes some sense and will have legs....just wait. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 5 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Maps showing storms dropping from Nunavut to ACY are fun to look at, but highly unlikely. Meanwhile, euro wants to retrograde that big continental block. That day-10 scenario makes some sense and will have legs....just wait. Sure it makes sense, but east of us, unless the whole pattern corrects westward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Sure it makes sense, but east of us, unless the whole pattern corrects westward. Not impossible. The retrograding could be fun. Meanwhile the mid Atlantic thread is fun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 43 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Not impossible. The retrograding could be fun. Meanwhile the mid Atlantic thread is fun. I hope they all rain down there in the tropics 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 8 minutes ago, George001 said: I hope they all rain down there in the tropics They probably have better odds of seeing snow than you do in the coming pattern. 72-73 was one of the analogs for this winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: They probably have better odds of seeing snow than you do in the coming pattern. 72-73 was one of the analogs for this winter Unfortunately I agree with you. Strong and super El Niños are better for the mid atlantic, they suck up here. I’m rooting for a La Niña next year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 hour ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Maps showing storms dropping from Nunavut to ACY are fun to look at, but highly unlikely. Meanwhile, euro wants to retrograde that big continental block. That day-10 scenario makes some sense and will have legs....just wait. This is an interesting post.. I mean, at first it reads, "... Dropping from Nunavut to ACY ... highly unlikely" ...implying thus it should be dismissible. But look out! - some scenario at D10 ( no less ) where it is probably even more preposterous per comparing climate, 30" of snow at Norfolk VA, must somehow have legs. I get it - we're dancing around some notion that one way or the other we'll see some reality that is disappointing and seems unfair ... lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 I am not optimistic about this first 10 days of February or so....has SNE bone-job written all over it and the bickering will continue. People like Pope and Omega will be citing the lack of snow posting clown GIFS, while Brooklyn will be posting animated plots of a bowling ball plowing through Halifax and Georgia. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I am not optimistic about this first 10 days of February or so....has SNE bone-job written all over it and the bickering will continue. People like Pope and Omega will be citing the lack of snow posting clown GIFS, while Brooklyn will be posting animated plots of a bowling ball plowing through Halifax and Georgia. Brooklyn posting those maps like the band playing on the titanic as it sinks? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 14 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Brooklyn posting those maps like the band playing on the titanic as it sinks? Nothing against him....the pattern is explosive, high potential and resembles that of a modoki el Nino....but I don't like the overall look for NE snow. He will tell you the same thing....but its the type of pattern that will protract and intensify bickering because it will exacerbate frustration, while leaving each side a pathway to claim "victory" that will be used as a means to compensate for said frustration. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I am not optimistic about this first 10 days of February or so....has SNE bone-job written all over it and the bickering will continue. People like Pope and Omega will be citing the lack of snow posting clown GIFS, while Brooklyn will be posting animated plots of a bowling ball plowing through Halifax and Georgia. Omega trying to spike footballs if we get a pattern he explicitly said wasn’t going to happen would be the meme…. 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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