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It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread


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Even me the optimist acknowledges it looks over for a couple of weeks  I'm assuming no significant snow through March 3 just based on ensembles.  But, this time of year, and in a season of bad model mid and long range performance, something could shift.  The 24th could come back in some form at least up here.  And then maybe me sneak in something before the big warmth.  Then a few warm days and then we see what comes next.  But at least no attachment to anything, so maybe we get some happy surprises.

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8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Only thing that looks exciting is the impending warmth. 

Which ... no sooner do we recognize the potential there, the GFS summarily starts engineering ways to defeat it's own signal

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11 hours ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Just looking at wiz’s chart BDL is hitting 70 over the last 20 years just as frequently as the 1960-1980 period.

as far as 80 . BDL hit 80 4 times before 1990 3 times since 1990. 
 

off first glance 60s seem more prevalent recently 

 

That makes sense. 70 and 80 are still extreme for that time of year, and will still happen fairly infrequently. But 60 is much closer to normal and so with gradual warming you would expect more of those temps to show up. 

The tails are still the tails, but the meat of the temp distribution moves closer to the 60s.

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47 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Which ... no sooner do we recognize the potential there, the GFS summarily starts engineering ways to defeat it's own signal

Maybe that’s the time when all looks lost and we get a nice wedge of cold and overrunning wintry event. :lol:

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Models failed big time with the prolonged cold and snowy pattern like the weeklies were showing and many were latching on to the huge blocking pattern. 

 

At least I got 12 inches out of this pattern but it could have been longer.

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