Damage In Tolland Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 We IPA.. we weenie 9 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 I am actually very optimistic about next winter. There is a positive correlation between how active a hurricane season is and snowfall in the east during La Nina’s. Given how warm the temps are in the Atlantic Ocean and how La Niña is expected to develop fairly early (May-June), if the Niña does develop as expected I like our chances. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Just now, George001 said: I am actually very optimistic about next winter. There is a positive correlation between how active a hurricane season is and snowfall in the east during La Nina’s. Given how warm the temps are in the Atlantic Ocean and how La Niña is expected to develop fairly early (May-June), if the Niña does develop as expected I like our chances. sounds like voodoo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: sounds like voodoo Exactly. He grasping. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 It ain’t much…but there is some winter to be had in the hinterlands of Rockport. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 2 minutes ago, George001 said: I am actually very optimistic about next winter. There is a positive correlation between how active a hurricane season is and snowfall in the east during La Nina’s. Given how warm the temps are in the Atlantic Ocean and how La Niña is expected to develop fairly early (May-June), if the Niña does develop as expected I like our chances. Comical. As I said on the previous page..last year you’s all were hoping for a Nino. Now you’re hoping for a Nina. Funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 53 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Ya SE Mass really taking it in the ass this year. It’s been Much better in central and western areas in SNE this season than last(still not anything all to good), but better. They want it to end…we can understand that. But on 2/17 winter probably isn’t done with the area just yet. Its been better but far from great, one more good storm of 12+ would give this winter a D. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: We IPA.. we weenie You are the kielbasa king. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 13 minutes ago, weathafella said: While I’m glad to see many of you enjoy a deep winter week, it has blown here. Got a total of about 1.25 inches and cold. Fairly useless as our biggest event was 0.75. And today’s squalls missed my house. Just turn it up 50 degrees and I’ll be happy. This is by far worse than any ratter in memory. Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 11 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Comical. As I said on the previous page..last year you’s all were hoping for a Nino. Now you’re hoping for a Nina. Funny. All depends on where you live. My area in New England statistically does the worst in super ninos and second worst in strong ninos (especially non modokis) so I am expecting this upcoming winter to be a fairly benign winter here, like last year (not quite that extreme, but nevertheless below normal snow and above normal temps). Ninas following ninos are often really damn good in SNE, 1995-1996 and 2010-2011 are good examples. If we do get a Nina, I would think it would be a fairly strong one since this El Niño is going to be quite strong. If you are right and we go from super nino to strong Nina, the mid Atlantic will likely do better relative to average this winter than the next so I would expect most mid Atlantic folks would prefer this winter. I would expect my area to do well during the strong Nina and poorly this winter. In fact, the progression you are describing is very similar to 2009-2010 to 2010-2011. This nino will likely be stronger than that one, but regardless that went from strong nino after a multi year Nina to a very strong La Niña in 2010-2011. the bolded was my post in July. It didn’t end up being entirely correct as the mid Atlantic struggled too, but regardless I feel I have been pretty consistent about my preference for La Niña over any nino that is not weak. I was negative about this winter since it became clear this El Niño would be a strong event. That is why I have been more toned down with my posts this winter. I never liked the pattern. I did take the cheese a couple of times when the models were giving me big snow, but I never once thought this winter would be good here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 I’ll root for la nada. Or whatever it is being weak…and the west to warm up. Regardless of enso state if we have a cold wet west our chances go down for a snowy winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You are the kielbasa king. Great brewery out of Chicago .. Hop Butcher. Fantastic beers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 54 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Look on the bright side...it's not unrealistic that we could get some 60's or 70's next month and could even tickle 80's to 90 in two months. Sustained, no but at least a few days, sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 GFS is trying to set the table for a heat burst ... 580 non-hydrostats to NYC fits the telecon distribution leading and during the D10-15 range. Despite the long lead, there are some long leads that are just a wee bit higher confidence than mere noise. There's more to this than just that though - I have it in the back of my mind that these Feb-Mar-Apr bizarre "heat bursts" where temps soared to 80 or higher that early in the year on so many occasions over the past 15 years I've lost count. This is clearly an attribution issue - not going to get into it.. you believe it or you don't. But these extraordinary heat explosions began around the time that all these empirical accelerations in GW became incontrovertible. That's the case for it ... I'm interested in recognizing scenarios that host those events - but quite intuitively, they occur inside warm scaffolding. Having a every telecon there is in or accelerating into a warm mode post the 24th of the month, while operational runs have begun rolling a ridge E of 100W, certainly fits. So we'll see if this manifest in some kind of ( yet again ) absurdly early heat, or if it is just another ordinary warm episode. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 We don’t need El Niño or La Niña, we just need Canada to have relatively normal cold air again. As long as Canada continues to be a furnace our Winter snow chances will continue to be reduced. Our general patterns were favorable several times for snowfall, only for there to be marginal temps making accumulation difficult or impossible. Sometimes you don’t realize how a +10 or +20 500 miles away makes 29 degrees turn into 33 degrees in New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: GFS is trying to set the table for a heat burst ... 580 non-hydrostats to NYC fits the telecon distribution leading and during the D10-15 range. Despite the long lead, there are some long leads that are just a wee bit higher confidence than mere noise. There's more to this than just that though - I have it in the back of my mind that these Feb-Mar-Apr bizarre "heat bursts" where temps soared to 80 or higher that early in the year on so many occasions over the past 15 years I've lost count. This is clearly an attribution issue - not going to get into it.. you believe it or you don't. But these extraordinary heat explosions began around the time that all these empirical accelerations in GW became incontrovertible. That's the case for it ... I'm interested in recognizing scenarios that host those events - but quite intuitively, they occur inside warm scaffolding. Having an every telecon there is in or accelerating into a warm mode post the 24th of the month, while operational runs have begun rolling a ridge E of 100W, certainly fits. So we'll see if this manifest in some kind of ( yet again ) absurdly early heat, or if it is just another ordinary warm episode. Those Heat bursts you mention is something I noticed happening earlier and earlier. 70s in March used to be very rare, and now it seems like every couple years we soar into the 70s in Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 The winter grade will go up if we get 70s in March. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 I hope we get sustained 70's and 80's in April/May with humidity so it stays warm at night and I can sit outside and watch Bruins playoff games with just a jersey on. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The winter grade will go up if we get 70s in March. Let's get the bass fishing season going early this year. Still a little worried we revert in mid March to something colder but we'll see what happens 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 49 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: GFS is trying to set the table for a heat burst ... 580 non-hydrostats to NYC fits the telecon distribution leading and during the D10-15 range. Despite the long lead, there are some long leads that are just a wee bit higher confidence than mere noise. There's more to this than just that though - I have it in the back of my mind that these Feb-Mar-Apr bizarre "heat bursts" where temps soared to 80 or higher that early in the year on so many occasions over the past 15 years I've lost count. This is clearly an attribution issue - not going to get into it.. you believe it or you don't. But these extraordinary heat explosions began around the time that all these empirical accelerations in GW became incontrovertible. That's the case for it ... I'm interested in recognizing scenarios that host those events - but quite intuitively, they occur inside warm scaffolding. Having an every telecon there is in or accelerating into a warm mode post the 24th of the month, while operational runs have begun rolling a ridge E of 100W, certainly fits. So we'll see if this manifest in some kind of ( yet again ) absurdly early heat, or if it is just another ordinary warm episode. Will some of us in SNE and NNE break records with AC installs with deep snow OTG? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AstronomyEnjoyer Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 18z GFS. March 1st bringing the warmth! Caveat - this is an operational run at like 300 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Will some of us in SNE and NNE break records with AC installs with deep snow OTG? Snow melts from here on out slowly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 15 minutes ago, wx2fish said: Let's get the bass fishing season going early this year. Still a little worried we revert in mid March to something colder but we'll see what happens I want to head to Oswego to get some King Salmon and Trout in April, so warmth works for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Snow melts from here on out slowly. You keep trying to melt the snow that people have. We get it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: You keep trying to melt the snow that people have. We get it Not so good in his area so he's jaded, I get it, sometimes it's my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 2 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: Not so good in his area so he's jaded, I get it, sometimes it's my area. Nothing worse than trying to melt others snow. It’s warm sun angle time of year.. it’s fluff. Sure it’s gonna melt . But will it melt on the slopes and trails? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 34 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The winter grade will go up if we get 70s in March. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Snow melts from here on out slowly. Not too slow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Not too slow lol Oh wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: You keep trying to melt the snow that people have. We get it 13 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: Not so good in his area so he's jaded, I get it, sometimes it's my area. It’s Feb and in 30s and 40s. Those are the facts. I don’t control the laws of physics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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