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It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread


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That def a bit more interesting with a ULL that deep on the GFS. That threat is still a long ways out so there is time for it to look a lot more threatening. Keeping expectations low but there is longwave support for something. 

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33 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Little interesting here e871b1e45095f3d923e4b6d5a27aa308.jpg


.

In my opinion ...

... both the GGEM and GFS would be top tier events if it were not for this velocity management problem.

This g-damn speed in the flow has been a canvased negative interference going back multiple years. 

In both these 12z renditions of the 24th potential, the models are just zipping the S/stream too quickly by and it out paces the N/stream ability to subsume/or absorb into the same wave space ... rendering the system to shear ...

It's correctable from this range..  But, the speed aspect is real - that part of it is less than clear

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33 minutes ago, NoCORH4L said:

Did this even come close to verifying? 

IMG_20240216_112418.jpg

I'm near the 2-3" red dot of Portsmouth and look to have hit 2" on the money.  Super light and fluffy and mostly blown away now with all the wind.  Grass blades were covered this morning but are about 50% visible now.  

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6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Ensembles and global 

Good luck with those too….cuz they’ve been so accurate lately….right?   The point is it doesn’t look even close to March of 12.  
 

And if for some reason it ends up like March of 12, I will give you the credit you deserve for sure. 

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

In my opinion ...

... both the GGEM and GFS would be top tier events if it were not for this velocity management problem.

This g-damn speed in the flow has been a canvased negative interference going back multiple years. 

In both these 12z renditions of the 24th potential, the models are just zipping the S/stream too quickly by and it out paces the N/stream ability to subsume/or absorb into the same wave space ... rendering the system to shear ...

It's correctable from this range..  But, the speed aspect is real - that part of it is less than clear

I feel like that is just as large a mitigating factor of CC than temps and probably more so, given that them rises are more realized on clear nights.

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1 hour ago, Layman said:

I'm near the 2-3" red dot of Portsmouth and look to have hit 2" on the money.  Super light and fluffy and mostly blown away now with all the wind.  Grass blades were covered this morning but are about 50% visible now.  

QPF was below the .15-.25 noted in AFDs.  The fluff factor mitigated that a bit - the meager 0.07" here produced 2.1".  The last 2-4" forecast (Jan 29) had the same 0.07" but only 1/2".

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