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It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread


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16 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Good thing the snow tonight isn’t about 4-5 hours earlier. That would’ve been a disaster for evening commute. It’s not a lot of snow but it looks like it could rip for an hour or two which will def mess up the roads. 

good call. I was driving down 89 to 93 right in the middle of it. roads were pretty damn slippery until the plows came out. for a few miles I was behind a car on a single lane road (55 mph zone) going 25 with the flashers going the whole way. I thought I was going to have a seizure from the flashing. Of course there was a car behind me right on my ass, couldn't even see their headlights they were so close. once we got to the highway, that car flew around me after I passed the slow guy. i was really hoping to see him in a ditch , unfortunately  the fast guy survived. I am an agressive driver, but didn't feel good about going more than 45 on the highway even though I have 4wd.

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28 minutes ago, tunafish said:

Like convection fizzling as it approaches us from the west.  Weak.

0.4" since midnight - 0.5"/0.02" total

3-5 seemed bullish, but I figured 2" was in the bank. What a winter.

At least the sun is coming out.

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2 hours ago, dendrite said:

Dumping pretty good in a squall right now. 26.8°

Will measure in a few

Very narrow on rad but vis down to 1/4 of a mile briefly with whipping blowing vortices of pulverized snow dust curling around building corners and fanning down streets here.   Est about a 1/3"  

28" on the on the season to very close approximation.    Sun shining again ...

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about the warm up from the tail end of the month into early March:  a little concerned about that evolving into a -PNA/-NAO hemisphere.  A "little"  we'll see.  But the ens are little "hinty" of that depending on which I'm evaluating.

 

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52 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I slept 2hrs. Failed exhaust fan on the pellet stove ftl. 

 

14 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

4 hours…. Failed water heater ftl. 

5 hours. Old man, had to get up to pee and couldn't fall back asleep.

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

about the warm up from the tail end of the month into early March:  a little concerned about that evolving into a -PNA/-NAO hemisphere. 

 

Yup. Spidey senses tell me to have caution flags ready on the tarmac for this supposed warm up.  

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There's gotta be some zonked members in the EPS's 00z mean.  The 500 mb height cinema of 22 - 24th certainly casts that allusion.  One gets the easy impression of some big power diving over the Lakes and ending up around the Del Marva.  It's probably like 2/3rds of them don't and have some other less savory or distracting type solutions in general, but there's definitely something weighting the mean enough to create this, which is (btw) a whopper signal from 200 hours out - the last time I saw a signal this coherent at this range was 2015.

eps_lowlocs_us_34.png

That said, the GEFs and GEPs are tepid by comparison.  They both end up with coastal huggers ( the 06z trending away from yesterday's BTV route) , but paltry surface solutions are emerging from their mean.  They do, however, cinema the 500 mb deepening spanning that time, so ... mm plenty of room for an emergence there.

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

There's gotta be some zonked members of the EPS's 00z mean.  The cinema of 22 - 24th certainly casts that allusion.  One gets the easy impression of some big power diving over the Lakes and ending up around the Del Marva.  It's probably like 2/3rds of them don't and have some other less savory or distracting type solutions in general, but there's definitely something weighting the mean enough to create this, which is (btw) a whopper signal from 200 hours out - the last time I saw a signal this coherent at this range was 2015.

eps_lowlocs_us_34.png

That said, the GEFs and GEPs are tepid by comparison.  They both end up with coastal huggers ( the 06z trending away from yesterday's BTV route) , but paltry surface solutions are emerging from their mean.  They do, however, cinema the 500 mb deepening spanning that time, so ... mm 

There’s def some big hits on the EPS individual members but there’s plenty of northing too and a few rain events as well. Hopefully that threat becomes a bit more coherent. 

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37 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The next “threat” to watch become all rain for NYC…..

Why must you bust his chops constantly?  The guy posts a map for a week out, and he gets made fun of?  It’s a week out, it’ll morph ten times by then, but his only point was that something is there to track, and he’s right. Yet you bust his balls.  F’n sad. Last I looked this is a weather board…

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8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There’s def some big hits on the EPS individual members but there’s plenty of northing too and a few rain events as well. Hopefully that threat becomes a bit more coherent. 

Yeah, ...unfortunately marginal - but as you intimate with coherence it's not really something to grouse over at this range.

The 850 mb (EPS mean) has an intense gradient couplet bisecting right through here - which is tantalizingly the spring bomb climatology thing

eps_T850a_us_33.png

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