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It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread


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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Reinvigorated it too around 234-240 with another vort lobe. Almost reminds me of Dec ‘92 the way that happened on the Saturday after the initial violence on Friday. 
 

Highly doubt we see anything from that but there’s a low probability we can squeeze a shortwave underneath. 

Its day 10, but not like this is one of those weekly product charts cooked up in George's basement meth-lab....this is on the radar, folks.

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7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s not a complete portrait until you post the kuchie. 

And that is a thing of dreams. I know it's a fantasy, but boy, that would take everything that has happened so far the last few years away for all of us a lot of the areas who haven't seen much snow. There's always the chance. And I'll probably take a weenie for this one

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Just now, Snowcrazed71 said:

And that is a thing of dreams. I know it's a fantasy, but boy, that would take everything that has happened so far the last few years away for all of us a lot of the areas who haven't seen much snow. There's always the chance. And I'll probably take a weenie for this one

Even if we slash the amounts by a half, the evolution is still very low probability imo. 

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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have news for you...models do not print out physically implasubible solutions. Don't waste any more of your 5 disputing this fact, dude.

Waste your time on this guy. He's like a leech. Yeah, zero interest in a constructive conversation. But as people have stated before, he has every right to post his trash comments. I just overlook them now and laugh.

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2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Even if we slash the amounts by a half, the evolution is still very low probability imo. 

Just curious, do you have a plausible reason why? I don't disagree with you that the chances are lower, but I did notice when you comment on what's going on, you're kind of like the glass half empty type of person. I hope you're wrong in this case. But if it doesn't happen, there will be a next time.

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14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have news for you...models do not print out physically implausible solutions. Don't waste any more of your 5 disputing this fact, dude.

If you actually took any meteorology courses you would know that statement is incorrect

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10 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Just curious, do you have a plausible reason why? I don't disagree with you that the chances are lower, but I did notice when you comment on what's going on, you're kind of like the glass half empty type of person. I hope you're wrong in this case. But if it doesn't happen, there will be a next time.

I’m actually not. More full than empty but there’s been nothing to be positive about for years now so lets keep it real. Here are the last several op runs, very consistent huh? Also, this specific run you have a pv lobe diving straight south over the GLs which requires surgical precision to the west from a ridge placement standpoint.  

image.thumb.gif.453c0e94c8b1c12064086b8a7118bcab.gif
 

 

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Just now, qg_omega said:

If you actually took any meteorology courses you would know that statement is incorrect

They’re printing out solutions based on what they’re assimilated with and going forward. So while that solution is unlikely, it’s seeing something. 
 

You can argue the data it assimilates with is incorrect and it didn’t initialize right, or it’s not handling features properly going forward, but that’s different vs your statement.

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1 minute ago, qg_omega said:

If you actually took any meteorology courses you would know that statement is incorrect

Why are you still here. Don't you realize from all your comments and statements that you've made in the past that you have close to zero respect from anyone? 

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It’s very unlikely but it isn’t impossible. It’s an unusual evolution, but we have seen clippers dive south, bomb out over the Atlantic and evolve into a blizzard before. My biggest concern is the temp profile, I’d prefer to see modeled temps in the mid 20s not low 30s throughout the storm.

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9 minutes ago, George001 said:

It’s very unlikely but it isn’t impossible. It’s an unusual evolution, but we have seen clippers dive south, bomb out over the Atlantic and evolve into a blizzard before. My biggest concern is the temp profile, I’d prefer to see modeled temps in the mid 20s not low 30s throughout the storm.

Exactly...its probably about as likley as @WinterWolfshowing up to a CC convention, but there is a physical path.

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14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Exactly...its probably about as likley as @WinterWolfshowing up to a CC convention, but there is a physical path.

So... Serious question. How do we know when something is a definite when it's 10 days out. If we look back at our big snow storms or blizzards we've had in the past. Were they more of a lock within 10 days,  where we knew the pattern was perfect and it was going to happen? Or did we have similar setups where we just weren't sure until we got closer ( as far as temps and where the storm will go and what kind of energy will be infused to make it a large snowstorm ) Just curious is all.

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6 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

So... Serious question. How do we know when something is a definite when it's 10 days out. If we look back at our big snow storms or blizzards we've had in the past. Were they more of a lock within 10 days,  where we knew the pattern was perfect and it was going to happen? Or did we have similar setups where we just weren't sure until we got closer ( as far as temps and where the storm will go and what kind of energy will be infused to make it a large snowstorm ) Just curious is all.

Nothing is definite, but the huge events are rooted on a hemispheric scale with mass teleconnector convergence, like Mach 1993 and PD II etc....even Feb 2013....so its just about nailing down the details. This is different in that its just a pinched off ULL under a block....toss a dart.

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