mreaves Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 hour ago, qg_omega said: Two storms this winter is about what most expected, a week of winter in Jan with a storm and another ongoing week now with a very similar storm just displaced 100 miles or so south. Upstate NY to NNE have seen nothing for months which is really amazing and that doesn't look to change at all going into March. Just an historically bad winter, last year was MUCH better overall for the Northeast. Most Ski resorts finished normal to above normal, not a chance this winter. The best month for the ski resorts was November...think Jay had 100 before December this year... I don't know how to respond to this without sounding like I'm saying this winter has been good, it hasn't. But you should at least tell truth. January was pretty active and my last snowfall was on January 28th. January was a torch but it managed to snow. Again, I'm not trying to dispute that winter has not been good but please get your info straight. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 snow tomorrow, track next week, warm up end of Feb into early March, hope we get another chance later into March. In this regime it’s always going to be easier to forecast warmth and highly anomalous warmth is worth discussing. But I’ve yet to see a troll forecast a snow storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Why do some get so bent out of shape when there is discussion which incorporates climate change/global warming? Read through some of the last 5-7 pages and there is some excellent discussion/debate. I get there is the whole climate change form and whatever but there is nothing wrong with great debate and discussion and much of what has been posted has been very informative. Maybe there is a place for it but its much better than the constant sexual references and posts which have zero value 6 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 VDay was tough for some, i get it. no need to lash out 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 In all seriousness ( and because no one has mentioned - ) ...the D9/10 ens means from all three carry an impressive cyclone signal ( considering the range..) through the NE conus. The orbital hemispheric synopsis/cinema shows a negative anomaly reaching it's lowest point under LI - relative to Climate. The GEFs has a low transiting NY State ...while the GEPs and EPS are on or off the coast. There is subtle suggestion in all three of a Pac S/stream wave space being ejected over the New Mexico route, while the N/stream is asserting a NW flow over Chicago ... possible presage to a "phasey" atmosphere but we'll see... Beyond that, the ens et al definitely suggest some sort of seasonal repulse might sweep over the continent - actually...the hemisphere. That's a warm wave number look. I do point out that when these warm looks materialize as of recent decade(s) ...there is a tendency to over perform. This phenomenon of "heat bursting" will perfunctory need that scaffolding to take place within, so... Just a possibility here - Any little critters in the foreground, notwithstanding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Really can’t hate the EPS mean for late next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 27 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: Maybe compared to what was modeled several days ago. last few runs of the euro and RGEM have ticked back north a bit. I get it though, this won't affect most in the area. yeeeah maybe all that. plus, I was just trolling Kevin 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Can you imagine the apoplexy among the "winter enthusiast sports nation" should a full latitude phased juggernaut bomb wind up over Detroit ... Then, it's 77 a week later because the hints go on to setting CC's attribution bum on our faces and squeezing one off ? Man, some part of me would kind of be morbidly interested in being a spectator for that - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Two storms this winter is about what most expected, a week of winter in Jan with a storm and another ongoing week now with a very similar storm just displaced 100 miles or so south. Upstate NY to NNE have seen nothing for months which is really amazing and that doesn't look to change at all going into March. Just an historically bad winter, last year was MUCH better overall for the Northeast. Most Ski resorts finished normal to above normal, not a chance this winter. The best month for the ski resorts was November...think Jay had 100 before December this year...You are correct that I don’t see many resorts hitting normal this year. Jay averages 350, so even with that great start, punting 10-14 days in peak climo, in addition to that dumpster fire around the holidays is difficult to make up. You are incorrect that there has been nothing for months, and that last year was MUCH better. There was a phenomenal stretch in mid Jan, so I won’t say November was the best month either. And at Jay at least, the base is solid, so this weekends refresh of a foot or more is going to dramatically improve conditions. I also wouldn’t count out March at NNE resorts above 1500’. March can get good really fast up here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 11 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said: Really can’t hate the EPS mean for late next week. Yeah of all three it's panache is most attractive. I like seeing the nadir at 500 mb passing more S of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Can you imagine the apoplexy among the "winter enthusiast sports nation" should a full latitude phased juggernaut bomb wind up over Detroit ... Then, it's 77 a week later because the hints go on to setting CC's attribution bum on our faces and squeezing one off ? Man, some part of me would kind of be morbidly interested in being a spectator for that - I don’t think the reaction would be that negative at this point. Maybe if it happened in January but in late Feb/early Mar, many peeps would prob just welcome 60s/70s….tho we know it won’t be a segway into warm spring around here. It’ll flip back to 35-55F and east flow for the better part of the following 6 weeks. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 23 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: LOL ...stop trolling I never troll. Except maybe Kevin. Some signals for that from what I see/hear. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 19 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Why do some get so bent out of shape when there is discussion which incorporates climate change/global warming? Read through some of the last 5-7 pages and there is some excellent discussion/debate. I get there is the whole climate change form and whatever but there is nothing wrong with great debate and discussion and much of what has been posted has been very informative. Maybe there is a place for it but its much better than the constant sexual references and posts which have zero value Unfortunately, like most topics these days, it’s become political to a certain extent. folks have drawn a line in the sand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 21 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Why do some get so bent out of shape when there is discussion which incorporates climate change/global warming? Read through some of the last 5-7 pages and there is some excellent discussion/debate. I get there is the whole climate change form and whatever but there is nothing wrong with great debate and discussion and much of what has been posted has been very informative. Maybe there is a place for it but its much better than the constant sexual references and posts which have zero value I do like the CC inclusion in the discussion. When it is based in what impacts the warming might have on analogues, model algorithms, etc. I find it useful. When it takes over a pattern thread and isn't contextualized around the pattern, then I find it annoying. People constantly bring politics into it, which to me is wholly unneccessary in terms of having a weather discussion. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 59 minutes ago, dendrite said: That doesn’t mean much for us. That will fizzle towards VT. We need the secondary to crank early. but a stronger system means more secondary development? It would be nice if it would slow down some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Anyways NAM came in a little more snowier. Maybe 1-2 even near BOS. Really nice cross hair sig again. Could even more than 2 in spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 53 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Deep winter rolls on Now your going QShmegma!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Unfortunately, like most topics these days, it’s become political to a certain extent. folks have drawn a line in the sand. 2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: I do like the CC inclusion in the discussion. When it is based in what impacts the warming might have on analogues, model algorithms, etc. I find it useful. When it takes over a pattern thread and isn't contextualized around the pattern, then I find it annoying. People constantly bring politics into it, which to me is wholly unneccessary in terms of having a weather discussion. Yup...understandable, and i get it regarding the politics of it. But IMO, if there is a great discussion going on with a back-and-forth of data, data interpretation, hypothesis/thesis, and arguments then it should be totally fine. If someone or people are going to throw a tantrum because what they're reading goes against their beliefs and cry for the discussion to stop then that is ridiculous. There are some on here who probably are involved in the work force or research where this topic is virtually their entire career and they should be able to elicit discussion. If people have a problem with discussing science...in any thread but have no problem tossing around sexual jokes and making sexual references I think we can see where the problem lies. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 45 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm just waiting to see how 2/24 will fail. Good chance it might, but what is interesting is that it is hard to trust the model output. At least when it is good we can't trust it, maybe more likely to be right when it is bad, but I dunno....I feel a lot of things could happen that we don't have a handle on yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Why do some get so bent out of shape when there is discussion which incorporates climate change/global warming? Read through some of the last 5-7 pages and there is some excellent discussion/debate. I get there is the whole climate change form and whatever but there is nothing wrong with great debate and discussion and much of what has been posted has been very informative. Maybe there is a place for it but its much better than the constant sexual references and posts which have zero valueI think some are overly condescending toward anyone who doesn’t have their same views, i.e. the guy yesterday who said the side of the debate that doesn’t share his views is worse. And I’m not necessarily talking about CC vs. no CC. It has now come to the level to which CC is affecting things. To some, even if you accept the data that shows the change, if you don’t have the same alarmist views on it or if you don’t think that despite the change, it can still snow, and NNE won’t have an Atlanta Georgia climate in ten years, you are a dumb ass denier. If you don’t believe that the warmest 3 day period in odd numbered years in which there was a republican president in bumble fuck Nebraska is a direct result of CC, you must have nothing more than a third grade education and three teeth. It’s the irrational stuff that causes people to get so fired up imo.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 25 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: In all seriousness ( and because no one has mentioned - ) ...the D9/10 ens means from all three carry an impressive cyclone signal ( considering the range..) through the NE conus. The orbital hemispheric synopsis/cinema shows a negative anomaly reaching it's lowest point under LI - relative to Climate. The GEFs has a low transiting NY State ...while the GEPs and EPS are on or off the coast. There is subtle suggestion in all three of a Pac S/stream wave space being ejected over the New Mexico route, while the N/stream is asserting a NW flow over Chicago ... possible presage to a "phasey" atmosphere but we'll see... Beyond that, the ens et al definitely suggest some sort of seasonal repulse might sweep over the continent - actually...the hemisphere. That's a warm wave number look. I do point out that when these warm looks materialize as of recent decade(s) ...there is a tendency to over perform. This phenomenon of "heat bursting" will perfunctory need that scaffolding to take place within, so... Just a possibility here - Any little critters in the foreground, notwithstanding maybe this is why CPC is clearly optimistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Yup...understandable, and i get it regarding the politics of it. But IMO, if there is a great discussion going on with a back-and-forth of data, data interpretation, hypothesis/thesis, and arguments then it should be totally fine. If someone or people are going to throw a tantrum because what they're reading goes against their beliefs and cry for the discussion to stop then that is ridiculous. There are some on here who probably are involved in the work force or research where this topic is virtually their entire career and they should be able to elicit discussion. If people have a problem with discussing science...in any thread but have no problem tossing around sexual jokes and making sexual references I think we can see where the problem lies. I think the sexual jokes should continue unabated. 2 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, bwt3650 said: I think some are overly condescending toward anyone who doesn’t have their same views, i.e. the guy yesterday who said the side of the debate that doesn’t share his views is worse. And I’m not necessarily talking about CC vs. no CC. It has now come to the level to which CC is affecting things. To some, even if you accept the data that shows the change, if you don’t have the same alarmist views on it or if you don’t think that despite the change, it can still snow, and NNE won’t have an Atlanta Georgia climate in ten years, you are a dumb ass denier. If you don’t believe that the warmest 3 day period in odd numbered years in which there was a republican president in bumble fuck Nebraska is a direct result of CC, you must have nothing more than a third grade education and three teeth. It’s the irrational stuff that causes people to get so fired up imo. . Unfortunately, it is very difficult in our society to have great debate without discussion turning personal. Everyone thinks their view is correct and the opposing view is incorrect. Some of the posts from several pages back discussing MJO/warm pool, etc were quite interesting. There should be a spinoff thread somewhere else to continue that discussion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Give me a couple more shots at some snow…then it can go to 70 degrees for all of March at this point…I’m fine with it. And I am not upset about when anything may, or may not end. But as Will added, we know how the spring is in SNE…and most times it ain’t good. So I’ll enjoy the last month of winter whatever it brings(70’s, or snow, or both). That 24th system looks decent on the ensembles however currently… could be interesting as we go along for winter enthusiasts as Tip would say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 That is a pretty impressive anafront passing to our southwest tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3km NAM has a heck of a LES streamer reaching all the way to the Berks late overnight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: That is a pretty impressive anafront passing to our southwest tomorrow. Does SNE get in on it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Does SNE get in on it? doesn't look like it, though we may see some snow showers late as we have the trough rotating through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 13 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: I think the sexual jokes should continue unabated. 9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: That is a pretty impressive analfront passing to our southwest tomorrow. 4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Does SNE get in on it? You’ll get your brief analfront and enjoy it. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 21 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: maybe this is why CPC is clearly optimistic Didn’t know they were Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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