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It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread


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If anyone here grew up in the Tri-State area in the 60s, they will remember channel 2 and News Radio 88 meteorologist Gordon Barnes.

Saturday has Gordon Barnes "dry ice in a martini" written all over it.  Those were storms that came from the TN Valley and popped off the Delmarva.  I used to love those storms.  4-6"  with an hour of warning.

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9 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah you are correct the heatwaves were longer back then and max temps more extreme. I think at least part of it was the drought conditions across the central US and esp south-central US and the drought extended up into the northeast, just a bit less intense than to the southwest. Drought keeps dewpoints down and it’s easy to sore in the summertime when you have dry air. 
 

CC might make this harder to come by if we are getting more high-dewpoint summers. But it’s also possible if we do enter a drought at some point anyway, things could be even hotter now. 

Knowing the global temperature curve of the time ... prior and since, it does intuitively suggest there might have been some kind of feedback that was endemic to mid latitude N/A.  ...thinking vestigial effects lingering from the Dust Bowl era...  It would be interesting to know what was going on in Eurasia, S. America and Australia - almost wondering if the spikes in that 1940/early 50s era might be weighted by said N/A warm bias.. 

c/o NASA

Bar chart showing rising global temperatures since 1880

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17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think I’ve been one of the most grounded here. Nobody is distraught but it’s a rat for the most part except for two areas.15 miles wide. It’s a sucky winter. And March doesn’t look like it offers any much better than what we’ve seen. I think some of you just can’t accept it.

Lmfao…We accept fine. You’re in a bad place.. we get it. We won’t be torching all of March…period.
 

Yes,  It has sucked..but less so than last year here(doubling last years snow..with a few shots at more). I know there it may be worse. But not everywhere.  We accept fine at the end of March.  

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35 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This is one of those that keeps trending north right up until go time. Won’t be shocking to get light snow up to NH border 

uq56iiN.png

Except that it has factually per what has actually really modeled to be trending S

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4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lmfao…We accept fine. You’re in a bad place.. we get it. We won’t be torching all of March…period.
 

Yes,  It has sucked..but less so than last year here(doubling last years snow..with a few shots at more). I know there it may be worse. But not everywhere.  We accept fine at the end of March.  

Look at the region as a whole. Consider you to be lucky that it’s less sucky. Still sucks. At least Ray gets it.

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51 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Some don’t wanna hear the end is near

Oh god please ...

Trust me, there are those of us out here that feign enthusiasm for winter on Feb 15's after 75 straight days of Meteorological inches up the butt winter.

save for two storms, that is ...  lol

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Oh god please ...

Trust me, there are those of us out here that feign enthusiasm for winter on Feb 15's after 75 straight days of Meteorological inches up the butt winter.

save for two storms, that is ...  lol

Deep winter rolls on

 

IMG_4564.png

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My low for the winter was 4.4° with about 30 seconds under 5° under calm conditions. I was essentially a 7b growing zone this season. I could’ve planted pomegranates last year and had them survive the entire winter. 

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7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Deep winter rolls on

 

IMG_4564.png

ho man...

I gotta say... for those of us who also embrace reality with open arms and don't gaslight our  own perceptions by attempting to convince ourselves the elephant in the room is but a bunny on the table ...  too many times has that look above, spanning the last 15 years, resulted in 70+ F in Feb or Mar - it was just a matter of bringing that outlook closer range.  And then, the forecasts would blanket call for 64 because people can't believe it ...

But, we do have 7 to 10 days to eek out a winter here so ... let's see what these little critters and 24th signal can conjure up in the meantime.    

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12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Except that it has factually per what has actually really modeled to be trending S

 

Maybe compared to what was modeled several days ago. last few runs of the euro and RGEM have ticked back north a bit. I get it though, this won't affect most in the area. 

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The lack of snow south and west of us will play a role if/when Scoot’s posted pattern takes place. There’s going to be a lot less of a modification to said airmass and there will be an early green up in the deeper south and TN valley. We don’t have much snow to modify it for long either. 

 

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4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I completely do.. my point was only, do you call for a complete March Torch! Yes or no? 

March is gonna be warm bro, there's no way around it. Maybe we can get a random blue bomb, but overall AN. 

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11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm just waiting to see how 2/24 will fail. 

Fool me once ...

'cept, honestly, the only two events we could justifiably give time to following this year ...technically did not fail.  Just sayn'    Also, the 24th isn't really coherent enough to "fail" yet...

This season: it really more than just seems our problem is not as much event-centric, and more just lower opportunity count.  I gotta say ...who in the world that indoctrinates the ENSO into their seasonal projection would have ever thought that storm frequency (dearth therein) would be the problem in an El Nino that had plenty of time prior to this cold season to establish a hook in the atmosphere.

For me.... I'm perfectly willing to entertain the notion that this warm ENSO was not as coupled as it may have looked - there are other indirect behaviors that evince that possibility.   But ... humans are "attribution happy" and can't wait to categorize everything into tidy and neat certainties, as a failing bias in everything they do in reality, and of reality itself.

Science is a simultaneous battle against the unknown and the endeavor of discovery, vs the predisposition to fit whatever's observed into presumption frames.  ..digress

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9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I completely do.. my point was only, do you call for a complete March Torch! Yes or no? 

It could mostly torch for all I care, but hoping we can thread the needle for a HECS. And no one is capable of predicting it will/won't happen. 

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