mahk_webstah Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Peaked at nam thru 39. Doesn’t look like an increase in qpf at least in NH. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoCORH4L Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 More moisture in the atmosphere keeps the max temps down, but the night time mins also stay higher, which is what we've been seeing lately. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Is there anything more boring than CC talk Hook and Latter talk? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Peaked at nam thru 39. Doesn’t look like an increase in qpf at least in NH. Around .20-.25" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Is there anything more boring than CC talk 4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Hook and Latter talk? Dews on the tarmac? 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 29 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: if it is oh well. as much as I would love to see a major snowfall.. I'm kind of ready for it to be warmer and be able to go out and enjoy the weather.. So you don’t go out to enjoy the cold and snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s all there for anyone to look at modeling and see. Maybe it isn’t that hot. But winter 2024 is about over Which models? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: There was definitely a period of extreme warmth in the northeast during the late ‘40s/early ‘50s. I think 1949 is still the warmest year on record for many stations in MA. That warmth extended up into gulf of maine and the Canadian maritimes….so clearly there was something going on during those years that may have helped tropical cyclones get northward. But it’s an interesting question why we haven’t been able to get the same thing now with big warmth being centered over that same area in the past decade. https://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?map=2&model=noaa&var=1&jaar=1899&maand=02&dag=13&uur=1800&h=0&tr=360&nmaps=24#mapref This was just posted in response to my query for some maps of the February 1899 blizzard that ended on Valentines Day that year. This reanalysis page is a treasure trove, using the drop down menu it looks like you can analyze any storm going all the way back to 1836! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 18 minutes ago, dryslot said: Around .20-.25" here. Let’s see if we can ramp to .3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, mahk_webstah said: Let’s see if we can ramp to .3 Ratios should be pretty high with this so we shall see going forward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: Ratios should be pretty high with this so we shall see going forward. Not predicting this, but I’ve seen these exceed 20 to one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, mahk_webstah said: Not predicting this, but I’ve seen these exceed 20 to one I have as well and seen them as high as 30:1 but in the 20's ive seen more so you can get more with less qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Here's where CT is at to date. I'll post the SNE update as well. Feb 14th 2024: Jan 22nd 2024: 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Is there anything more boring than CC talk Yes. Dews and Stein. edit: and install/uninstall 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 54 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: And 1955 had another amazingly hot summer, I wonder about that 11 year cycle sometimes, it hasn't worked in every case but it has in a majority of them. There's another more subtle thing going on that's different from back then. Back in the 40s and 50s we used to get much longer heatwaves and the heat came in earlier, the extreme heat anyway. We hit 100 back in June in a few of those years, which hasn't happened much since. Also, the length of the heatwaves was much longer-- we have a record of a 12 day super heatwave (really amazing!) back in late August through early September back in 1953 (including a few days of 100+, the monthly record of 102 in September 1953 was recorded in this stretch.) We have not had a heatwave of more than 6 days since 2002 I believe. And that 12 day super heatwave from 1953 has not come close to being touched-- and it was rather astonishing it happened in the last week of August and the first week of September. https://www.weather.gov/okx/heatwaves I remember the ones from 1993 and 1999 in this list as well as the one from 2002. Interesting how many of these are in that 11 year cycle I mentioned. I also just saw that 1953 had two long heatwaves, a 7 day heatwave in July and that 12 day heatwave.... and a total of 4 days of 100+ wow. You just don't see that around here anymore. And if I'm not mistaken I think it also hit 100 in June 1953, so that would be 5 days of 100+ and hitting 100 in every month from June through September, wow! Interesting thing about 2002-- it had two long heatwaves, one of 9 days and one of 8 days. And although the 11 day heatwave in 1999 did not have any 100+ degree highs, we had two back to back 101 degree highs right after July 4th that summer. Yeah you are correct the heatwaves were longer back then and max temps more extreme. I think at least part of it was the drought conditions across the central US and esp south-central US and the drought extended up into the northeast, just a bit less intense than to the southwest. Drought keeps dewpoints down and it’s easy to sore in the summertime when you have dry air. CC might make this harder to come by if we are getting more high-dewpoint summers. But it’s also possible if we do enter a drought at some point anyway, things could be even hotter now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 28 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Which models? Lol…he doesn’t know. First week might be mild, then it’ll go the other way again. He always thinks 2012 is coming every year. He posts stuff like that just for fun and laughs…it’s funny shit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s all there for anyone to look at modeling and see. Maybe it isn’t that hot. But winter 2024 is about over Lol ok 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Oh boy guess it's tonight's theme. Ah I'm out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Oh boy guess it's tonight's theme. Ah I'm out Ya..I saw like 70 new posts, and was like wow, maybe something interesting popped up. And I come here and it’s the CC summit. I thought we had a thread for it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AstronomyEnjoyer Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Wind is still whipping outside and the white pines are still flinging cones. Below, my crop of pinecones at 5pm. I'm sure it has since doubled. Mesos are averaging around 0.20" QPF over my head for this clipper. Hoping for more juice and some solid ratios. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 39 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said: Wind is still whipping outside and the white pines are still flinging cones. Below, my crop of pinecones at 5pm. I'm sure it has since doubled. Mesos are averaging around 0.20" QPF over my head for this clipper. Hoping for more juice and some solid ratios. That's probably 4 inches for you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1899 is criminally underrated. It’s gotta be top 3 nationally and probably 4th or 5th all time in CT. My top 5 1. Great Blizzard of 1888 2. Blizzard of 1978 3. Great Blizzard of 2013 4. February 1899 Blizzard 5. October 2011 Blizzard 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah you are correct the heatwaves were longer back then and max temps more extreme. I think at least part of it was the drought conditions across the central US and esp south-central US and the drought extended up into the northeast, just a bit less intense than to the southwest. Drought keeps dewpoints down and it’s easy to sore in the summertime when you have dry air. CC might make this harder to come by if we are getting more high-dewpoint summers. But it’s also possible if we do enter a drought at some point anyway, things could be even hotter now. We also had some very hot summers or at least extreme heat during rainy years, but the heavy rains were timed to either occur after the extreme heat ended, or there temporary pauses in the heavy rainfall to allow for drier periods that allowed for the extreme heat-- notable years that were like that were 1983 and 2011. 2011 in particular I remember for having an extremely hot July, and extreme rainfall both before and after that month. The peak heat of that summer occurred during the weather conference in Baltimore. That was probably the hottest weather this area has had since July 1977 and just off the all time records set in July 1966. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: 1899 is criminally underrated. It’s gotta be top 3 nationally and probably 4th or 5th all time in CT. My top 5 1. Great Blizzard of 1888 2. Blizzard of 1978 3. Great Blizzard of 2013 4. February 1899 Blizzard 5. October 2011 Blizzard Fantastic storm that enveloped a large part of the country-- where was it ranked on NESIS? It makes you wonder what it would be like for such an extremely cold blizzard to hit such a large area today. It was a two day storm with a high of 11 and a low of 4 over that two day span! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AstronomyEnjoyer Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 GFS has a storm around the 24th again. Still out just past 200 hours though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AstronomyEnjoyer Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 36 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: That's probably 4 inches for you. Yeah, it'd be nice to snag a 20:1 or higher ratio. Maybe clear off the decks with a leaf blower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 6 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said: Yeah, it'd be nice to snag a 20:1 or higher ratio. Maybe clear off the decks with a leaf blower. I did that one storm, I bought one of those new turbo blowers, did my whole walk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krs4Lfe Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 A few things that astonish me, and yes I know, I’ve said them before, but I can’t help but repeat them now. 1. a quick pattern regression after Feb 25th or so, into one that is consistent with a western trough and eastern ridge, which would provide west US with ample opportunity for both winter weather and severe storms (this is a complete shift from the projected pattern for the same period that has been showing up the past few weeks) 2. If any winter could be dubbed “the year without a winter” it would be this one. Only twelve named winter Storms from the weather channel up until this point. And for all those who will say it’s unscientific to name winter storms (I agree on some level), lake ice extent is at a record low, temperature anomalies are near a record high for the northern tier, and almost the whole nation is well below average for both snowcover and snowfall to date. 3. in terms of winter weather and severity, this is even milder than 2012,2020, and 2023 for almost the entirety of CONUS. Remember, 2023, while being historically un snowy for this board, was historically snowy for many from west coast through upper Midwest and the Great Lakes. This year, no one is winning (except for a few places in Deep South where one snowstorm is a good season for them). I think NYC has only dropped into the teens like 2 nights at most. 4. And with the projected jet extension in beginning of March, that will put this winter to bed, the chefs kiss. 3 jet extension torches. One for the last 3 weeks of December, one in first 2 weeks of February, and one projected in early March. Critical timeframes of winter totally shunted CONUSwide by a dominant pacific. Incredible. Surprisingly, with the clipper event coming up (and other snow not withstanding), NYC has more snow than 2020, 2023, 2002, 1998, and will likely have more than 2012 when all is said and done. Yet with the great patterns indicated for much of the season, somehow this hurts even more. And it’s awful for storm tracking when much of the nation has been void of snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 30 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Fantastic storm that enveloped a large part of the country-- where was it ranked on NESIS? It makes you wonder what it would be like for such an extremely cold blizzard to hit such a large area today. It was a two day storm with a high of 11 and a low of 4 over that two day span! I don’t see it actually ranked on the site but an older article says it would’ve been category 4. Interestingly, December 13-20, 2022 is ranked 4th. If you’re wondering what storm that was…I did too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3 hours ago, LibertyBell said: https://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?map=2&model=noaa&var=1&jaar=1899&maand=02&dag=13&uur=1800&h=0&tr=360&nmaps=24#mapref This was just posted in response to my query for some maps of the February 1899 blizzard that ended on Valentines Day that year. This reanalysis page is a treasure trove, using the drop down menu it looks like you can analyze any storm going all the way back to 1836! Great link thanks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now